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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


yoda
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48 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Nice rates verbatim.  As is would surely be 1-2 " easy . 12z Morning start timing helps 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-dc-snow_1hr_10to1-7961600 (1).png

Careful what you wish for. There is a correlation between how far south Monday’s wave comes and how far north Wednesday’s goes. We want Monday as amped and north as possible to suppress heights in front of Wed.  

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Careful what you wish for. There is a correlation between how far south Monday’s wave comes and how far north Wednesday’s goes. We want Monday as amped and north as possible to suppress heights in front of Wed.  

Always something...:rolleyes: So we basically don't want more snow out of the first wave?...

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Careful what you wish for. There is a correlation between how far south Monday’s wave comes and how far north Wednesday’s goes. We want Monday as amped and north as possible to suppress heights in front of Wed.  

I don’t think the Monday wave is more suppressed on the euro. It just seems colder for whatever reason. It’s been pretty cold all along and it looked just fine for mid week.

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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Careful what you wish for. There is a correlation between how far south Monday’s wave comes and how far north Wednesday’s goes. We want Monday as amped and north as possible to suppress heights in front of Wed.  

Then you would like the 18z NAVGEM. Fairly amped on Monday for a progressively biased model.

navgem_mslp_pcpn_neus_11.png

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

I don’t think the Monday wave is more suppressed on the euro. It just seems colder for whatever reason. It’s been pretty cold all along and it looked just fine for mid week.

I’m talking about the eps. It trended slightly suppressed Monday at 18z and so warmer Wed. 12z I looked at every eps member to confirm.  Of the 7 most north amplified members for Monday 6 had extremely south and snowy solutions for Wed. Of the 11 more suppressed they all had extremely north warm solutions Wed. The correlation makes sense. The more amplified Monday the more it will knock down heights in front of the wed wave.  

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m talking about the eps. It trended slightly suppressed Monday at 18z and so warmer Wed. 12z I looked at every eps member to confirm.  Of the 7 most north amplified members for Monday 6 had extremely south and snowy solutions for Wed. Of the 11 more suppressed they all had extremely north warm solutions Wed. The correlation makes sense. The more amplified Monday the more it will knock down heights in front of the wed wave.  

What does your gut tell you from experience that the expectation should be for the board come Wednesday if it was do or die? 

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10 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I thought inside three days (Monday storm) you would weigh the operational 18Z EURO more more than the EPS ensembles?

I would yes but the 18z op doesn't quite go out far enough to know where its headed for Wednesday yet...but we can see the effect of a less amped Monday wave...and I can speculate...

12z MSLP for the Monday wave

12zMSLP.thumb.png.7c2686d41e58bae51bd19e95c3528f05.png

18z MSLP a few MB less and further south...

18zmslp.thumb.png.7edcd114999d095a4a8c91cf80d79dbc.png

More importantly h5 was less amped at 18z...

12z h5 Monday wave

12z500.thumb.png.fdcd9ab086c0771625a9d5fa706e265e.png

18z h5 Monday wave

18z500.thumb.png.b4de2aafc4ddc174c84839c2c5dbd707.png

The result to our 50/50 and confluence to our northeast is evident...look at the 50/50 12z

12ZMOREAMPED.thumb.png.ca2e19538f98ba122b0d828c8167a8dd.png

Look at the change 18z...but there are some other factors that improved slightly that are unrelated to the Monday wave effects that could help mitigate...so I am not saying its impossible to get a cold solution Monday and Wednesday...but that the colder Monday is...the harder it will be to get Wed because it PROBABLY means higher heights to our northeast ahead of the next system.

18ZSO....thumb.png.326df0b78f4c97c040492375536e6654.png

But the system is further south ejecting from the Rockies...and the flow is a little flatter on top of it.  Those 2 factors could offset the less ideal 50/50 due to the less amplified Monday wave.  I can't extrapolate from those minor details.  But I would take the better 50/50 if I had the choice.  

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25 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

What does your gut tell you from experience that the expectation should be for the board come Wednesday if it was do or die? 

My gut tells me it is way too soon to be making detailed predictions for a storm 5 days away.  I don't like to pretend I am confident or know something when the truth is I don't know.  I am comfortable admitting when I don't know.  But...this is a pretty good setup in terms of the longwave pattern.  I would like that block to be centered a little south of where it is...like CAPE has said.  But we have snowed with a similar H5 look often.  I would like that 50/50 hanging around a few hours longer and the system coming from the west to go neutral just a little further east.  I would like a slightly colder thermal profile in front of it but its December...is what it is.  But there is a reason big all snow events are VERY rare in DC this early in the year.  I do think this ends up pretty amplified when its all said and done...and that in a way reduces the chances of an all snow south track some.  My "gut" says this is probably going to be DC's first accumulating snow of the season and break the snow drought...but the really big totals are going to be further north/west.  Even up here...if you asked me what I am more worried about...a north trend and rain is a way bigger concern for me att then missing heavy snow to the south.  Now watch 0z come in suppressed lol.  

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11 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Can we split the Monday vs Thursday thread? Especially if we’re hoping for the opposite on Monday for a better hit Thursday?   I never got the “omg, starting a thread will ruin the threat” stuff but to to each their own.

We sure as hell don’t need two threads

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