Maestrobjwa Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Careful what you wish for. There is a correlation between how far south Monday’s wave comes and how far north Wednesday’s goes. We want Monday as amped and north as possible to suppress heights in front of Wed. Always something... So we basically don't want more snow out of the first wave?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Seems like a step back for Thursday, especially if Monday is trending better. It trended less amplified/south Monday and warmer Wed. There is an inverse correlation between the two waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Careful what you wish for. There is a correlation between how far south Monday’s wave comes and how far north Wednesday’s goes. We want Monday as amped and north as possible to suppress heights in front of Wed. I don’t think the Monday wave is more suppressed on the euro. It just seems colder for whatever reason. It’s been pretty cold all along and it looked just fine for mid week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 WB EPS probability maps were about the same as 12Z. Hard to tell since it includes Monday, but this brought me a laugh, a one speck probability of 18 inches....GN peace. I will probably wake up for the early morning EURO. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Careful what you wish for. There is a correlation between how far south Monday’s wave comes and how far north Wednesday’s goes. We want Monday as amped and north as possible to suppress heights in front of Wed. Then you would like the 18z NAVGEM. Fairly amped on Monday for a progressively biased model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It trended less amplified/south Monday and warmer Wed. There is an inverse correlation between the two waves. Oh come on...smh Then amp that that first baby up!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Always something... So we basically don't want more snow out of the first wave?... You know nothing is ever easy. Still plenty of ways to fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: I don’t think the Monday wave is more suppressed on the euro. It just seems colder for whatever reason. It’s been pretty cold all along and it looked just fine for mid week. I’m talking about the eps. It trended slightly suppressed Monday at 18z and so warmer Wed. 12z I looked at every eps member to confirm. Of the 7 most north amplified members for Monday 6 had extremely south and snowy solutions for Wed. Of the 11 more suppressed they all had extremely north warm solutions Wed. The correlation makes sense. The more amplified Monday the more it will knock down heights in front of the wed wave. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m talking about the eps. It trended slightly suppressed Monday at 18z and so warmer Wed. 12z I looked at every eps member to confirm. Of the 7 most north amplified members for Monday 6 had extremely south and snowy solutions for Wed. Of the 11 more suppressed they all had extremely north warm solutions Wed. The correlation makes sense. The more amplified Monday the more it will knock down heights in front of the wed wave. What does your gut tell you from experience that the expectation should be for the board come Wednesday if it was do or die? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 I thought inside three days (Monday storm) you would weigh the operational 18Z EURO more more than the EPS ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I thought inside three days (Monday storm) you would weigh the operational 18Z EURO more more than the EPS ensembles? I see you posted the eps 24 hr snow for next Wednesday. Could you post the total snow whick includes Monday please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I see you posted the eps 24 hr snow for next Wednesday. Could you post the total snow whick includes Monday please. WB 18Z EPS total snow mean. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 18z EPS is a little concerning IMBY. North and west looking good but we have no wiggle room in the beltway. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 The SREFs at 21Z (if anyone uses them anymore) are quite a bit wetter than 15Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Can we split the Monday vs Thursday thread? Especially if we’re hoping for the opposite on Monday for a better hit Thursday? I never got the “omg, starting a thread will ruin the threat” stuff but to to each their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: The SREFs at 21Z (if anyone uses them anymore) are quite a bit wetter than 15Z For Monday I would guess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 https://www.psl.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/prec_f144_us.html https://www.psl.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/mslp_f144_us.html just a tad late for the thursday mess ...imo no stream interaction atm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 10 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I thought inside three days (Monday storm) you would weigh the operational 18Z EURO more more than the EPS ensembles? I would yes but the 18z op doesn't quite go out far enough to know where its headed for Wednesday yet...but we can see the effect of a less amped Monday wave...and I can speculate... 12z MSLP for the Monday wave 18z MSLP a few MB less and further south... More importantly h5 was less amped at 18z... 12z h5 Monday wave 18z h5 Monday wave The result to our 50/50 and confluence to our northeast is evident...look at the 50/50 12z Look at the change 18z...but there are some other factors that improved slightly that are unrelated to the Monday wave effects that could help mitigate...so I am not saying its impossible to get a cold solution Monday and Wednesday...but that the colder Monday is...the harder it will be to get Wed because it PROBABLY means higher heights to our northeast ahead of the next system. But the system is further south ejecting from the Rockies...and the flow is a little flatter on top of it. Those 2 factors could offset the less ideal 50/50 due to the less amplified Monday wave. I can't extrapolate from those minor details. But I would take the better 50/50 if I had the choice. 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Monday disco thread: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Watch Monday be south and less amplified and we get colder rain but that still screws up our Wednesday chances so we get no snow from either scenario! 2 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 25 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: What does your gut tell you from experience that the expectation should be for the board come Wednesday if it was do or die? My gut tells me it is way too soon to be making detailed predictions for a storm 5 days away. I don't like to pretend I am confident or know something when the truth is I don't know. I am comfortable admitting when I don't know. But...this is a pretty good setup in terms of the longwave pattern. I would like that block to be centered a little south of where it is...like CAPE has said. But we have snowed with a similar H5 look often. I would like that 50/50 hanging around a few hours longer and the system coming from the west to go neutral just a little further east. I would like a slightly colder thermal profile in front of it but its December...is what it is. But there is a reason big all snow events are VERY rare in DC this early in the year. I do think this ends up pretty amplified when its all said and done...and that in a way reduces the chances of an all snow south track some. My "gut" says this is probably going to be DC's first accumulating snow of the season and break the snow drought...but the really big totals are going to be further north/west. Even up here...if you asked me what I am more worried about...a north trend and rain is a way bigger concern for me att then missing heavy snow to the south. Now watch 0z come in suppressed lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 11 minutes ago, nj2va said: Can we split the Monday vs Thursday thread? Especially if we’re hoping for the opposite on Monday for a better hit Thursday? I never got the “omg, starting a thread will ruin the threat” stuff but to to each their own. We sure as hell don’t need two threads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 It’s Friday! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Watch Monday be south and less amplified and we get colder rain but that still screws up our Wednesday chances so we get no snow from either scenario! That is the total fail scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 We have something potential showing up on the LR GEFS ensembles 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ji said: Watch Monday be south and less amplified and we get colder rain but that still screws up our Wednesday chances so we get no snow from either scenario! This line of thought is totally expected from you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, JakkelWx said: We have something potential showing up on the LR GEFS ensembles Eskimo Joe would approve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 @Ji That isnt a crazy scenario... the 10 or so 12z EPS members that managed to give our area pretty much no snow next week did it that exact way. A suppressed monday wave that was just too warm to snow anywhere...then a crazy far north wednesday system where the snow started north of the mason dixon line. That is how this all falls apart. I would argue that its not JUST the monday wave though...the monday wave is acting in conjunction with the more significant wave on top of it...and that is what becomes the 50/50...so a weaker monday system is indicative of a weaker wave that turns into the 50/50. The pattern is good...but its still only mid December, with an only ok antecedent airmass, and a block that is a little north of ideal, and a pacific that is only mediocre...if you remove the ideal 50/50...this is probably an interior northeast storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: We have something potential showing up on the LR GEFS ensembles That's just our christmas blizzard. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: My gut tells me it is way too soon to be making detailed predictions for a storm 5 days away. I don't like to pretend I am confident or know something when the truth is I don't know. I am comfortable admitting when I don't know. But...this is a pretty good setup in terms of the longwave pattern. I would like that block to be centered a little south of where it is...like CAPE has said. But we have snowed with a similar H5 look often. I would like a slightly colder thermal profile in front of it but its December...is what it is. But there is a reason big all snow events are VERY rare in DC this early in the year. I do think this ends up pretty amplified when its all said and done...and that in a way reduces the chances of an all snow south track some. My "gut" says this is probably going to be DC's first accumulating snow of the season and break the snow drought...but the really big totals are going to be further north/west. Even up here...if you asked me what I am more worried about...a north trend and rain is a way bigger concern for me att then missing heavy snow to the south. Now watch 0z come in suppressed lol. Hahahaha appreciate the honesty. Just for the fact first storm creates a 50/50 and we have a good cold source of high pressure (1034-1036) for the Wednesday system, screams to me at the minimum a mixed bag. I naturally tend to view my area more so than DC because I don’t have marine influence or I’m not associated as closely to the low track as you all could possibly be. I could definitely see it going either way with good potential frontogenesis and lift up that way to where if it’s borderline it could be a wet heavy snow or to where unfortunately above 850 gets cooked by southerly flow and flips to a mess. Jury is still out so I guess you are right although when I see thermals on Canadian it gives me cause to be reasonably positive for a majority of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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