mattie g Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Your rain obs won’t deter them from knocking back a glass of bourbon and doing snow angels in powder. But at least I can feel good about *trying* to piss in their cornflakes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 minute ago, H2O said: Not until you know what happens FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 11 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Wonder when DT will get in here. Be curious to hear his take. I think he said he is working the mid shift this week. So he is probably sleeping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 So, if it ends up raining after all of this, is winter cancelled? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Just now, LeesburgWx said: So, if it ends up raining after all of this, is winter cancelled? why ask a question you know the answer to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’ll tell you what. It feels good to see so much joy on the boards right now. The pbp has been awesome. Nothing like it when things are looking up. Kept hitting the refresh. Waiting for that pesky GLL to show up and shit in our beer. That is the true grim reaper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Yup, this is what I've seen as well. Haven't spent the time to figure out quite why that pattern is there. A more amplified Monday wave would suppress ridging along the east coast some. Maybe that helps get a cleaner transfer sooner. Or maybe more amplified runs are just more amplified across the board lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Sterling NWS discussion Broad surface low pressure will near the Ohio Valley early Wednesday morning as the next upper trough/low tracks into the Great Lakes Region. Low pressure along the Southeast coast will begin to trek northward up the coast at the same time. Precipitation should begin to overspread the CWA from south to north later Tuesday night. Could be a little faster than previously indicated. The potential for a more widespread wintry solution exists with this system with the cold air at the surface and low pressure tracking northeastward from the Carolinas and off the Delmarva Peninsula. This system bears watching as phasing or intensification near the Outer Banks could mean the difference between chance or likely rain or snow to likely or definite snow with accumulations as far east as the I-95 corridor. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Almost forgot what a big storm looks like for this area. Been a while since one even appeared on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 . 11 5 1 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 I dont fall into a category 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 lol on the border of all rain and starting as ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 40% chance of 10+ is bullish for 5 days out. I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: @psuhoffman I know you said yesterday the outcomes for Monday and Wednesday seemed unrelated. But seeing guidance move in lockstep for both storms today has me wondering... 1 hour ago, Winter Wizard said: If there is any relation, I would maybe think a weaker, flatter system Monday would allow for a stronger Atlantic ridge to build ahead of wave 2. Would need to take a closer look and see if there's an impact. I looked at the EPS members. There is a relationship. I identified the 7 most amplified members for Monday and 6 of them had the most south/cold solution for Wednesday. Those 6 had the axis of heaviest snow south of DC. Some were a total miss south. The 7th had a weird all NS solution with not much of a storm anywhere. Inversely the 11 members that I pulled as being flat and weak Monday had the warmest north solutions Wednesday. 9/11 were north of the mean Wednesday. And the 2 most suppressed Monday members were by far the most extremely north members Wed. Obviously this isn’t scientific but it seems on the Eps anyways a more amplified system Monday leads to a colder solution Wednesday. Less obvious is any correlation to the amplitude or organization of the Wed storm. There were amplified but qpf producers in both camps. Some weaker in both. But the warm/cold correlation was like 90% 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 3 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: lol on the border of all rain and starting as ice. I’m straddling orange/purple. Muy bueno! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 In the orange band? What the heck I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 10 minutes ago, DTWXRISK said: I live just outside of Baltimore on the west side of town... basically where interstate 70 and the Baltimore Beltway intersect.. how much snow do you think I will get? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 I'm likely heading to Deep Creek for this one -- happy to not be in the mix zone for a change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 DT BULLISH AF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 7 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: lol on the border of all rain and starting as ice. Looks an awful lot like the Euro lol. Although it gives us some back end snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I looked at the EPS members. There is a relationship. I identified the 7 most amplified members for Monday and 6 of them had the most south/cold solution for Wednesday. Those 6 had the axis of heaviest snow south of DC. Some were a total miss south. The 7th had a weird all NS solution with not much of a storm anywhere. Inversely the 11 members that I pulled as being flat and weak Monday had the warmest north solutions Wednesday. 9/11 were north of the mean Wednesday. And the 2 most suppressed Monday members were by far the most extremely north members Wed. Obviously this isn’t scientific but it seems on the Eps anyways a more amplified system Monday leads to a colder solution Wednesday. Less obvious is any correlation to the amplitude or organization of the Wed storm. There were amplified but qpf producers in both camps. Some weaker in both. But the warm/cold correlation was like 90% Thanks for checking on that, seems to be in line with my hypothesis. The closer the timing between the two systems, the more of a relationship there will be. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 @DTWXRISK JK nice map 1 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: @DTWXRISK JK nice map I do want to know though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: I'm likely heading to Deep Creek for this one -- happy to not be in the mix zone for a change. Should be an awesome spot. Worst case you know wisp is gonna be making feet of snow with the cold air. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 So does ice storm mean sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Looks an awful lot like the Euro lol. Although it gives us some back end snow. That’s a first guess. Could easily trend better and you might take advantage of the departing low bombing to your east. Hopefully we all get something out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: @DTWXRISK JK nice map I’m in the red shirt color. We all know what happens to the guys in the red shirts 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Just now, H2O said: I’m in the red shirt color. We all know what happens to the guys in the red shirts Do you at least have a name on the script or do they just refer to you as "ensign#3" 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 minute ago, H2O said: I’m in the red shirt color. We all know what happens to the guys in the red shirts your character isn't important enough. you're going to die 5 minutes in. (hope you get the movie quote) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 That spot in N MD is where the all 3 streams cross...we know what happens then.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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