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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


yoda
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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

@psuhoffman I know you said yesterday the outcomes for Monday and Wednesday seemed unrelated. But seeing guidance move in lockstep for both storms today has me wondering... 

I only analyzes one gefs run. On that one run 24 hours ago there did not seem to be any discernible correlation between the amplitude of the Monday wave and the Wed wave. But things can change. If they become less spaced the odds they impact each other increases. Also of Monday crosses a critical threshold and is amplified “enough” it would have to impact the next wave. Ill take a look at the 12z guidance to see if there is a more obvious correlation now. 

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4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

@psuhoffman I know you said yesterday the outcomes for Monday and Wednesday seemed unrelated. But seeing guidance move in lockstep for both storms today has me wondering... 

If there is any relation, I would maybe think a weaker, flatter system Monday would allow for a stronger Atlantic ridge to build ahead of wave 2. Would need to take a closer look and see if there's an impact. 

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4 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said:

If there is any relation, I would maybe think a weaker, flatter system Monday would allow for a stronger Atlantic ridge to build ahead of wave 2. Would need to take a closer look and see if there's an impact. 

I have noticed the last 2-3 model cycles that no matter what model you use if it is more NW with wave one its been more classic for the coast and organized with wave 2.  The weaker wave 1 runs have tended to be uglier with wave 2, more disjointed etc.  There may be no correlation given the sample size is small but its been obvious mostly in the Euro which by far has been the most amped model for Monday.

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7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Somebody should probably start a thread for the Monday threat. It is only 72 hours out. And it is going to be really busy in here with the Wednesday event. 

Let’s be honest...Monday isn’t a threat for 80% of the people in this forum. I guess if you hicks think it’s worth it then be ready for the city folk to sh*t it up with rain obs.

:lol:

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24 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I have noticed the last 2-3 model cycles that no matter what model you use if it is more NW with wave one its been more classic for the coast and organized with wave 2.  The weaker wave 1 runs have tended to be uglier with wave 2, more disjointed etc.  There may be no correlation given the sample size is small but its been obvious mostly in the Euro which by far has been the most amped model for Monday.

Yup, this is what I've seen as well.  Haven't spent the time to figure out quite why that pattern is there.

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