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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


yoda
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25 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

So far, the 12z Euro looks better for the 12/16 event at 500mb. Better confluence, and western ridge.

4/5 days ago when the pattern started to advertise itself I mentioned the PNA and ridging probably being the greatest key to this setup. 
 

We have a stout high in the correct spot but the airmass is still marginal given it’s early in the season. We need to amplification and a ridge out west that flattens or breakdown as our sw amps up will not produce for the cities. I still see this as a mix event at best for the most of dc metro and immediate suburbs.

Winchester on west to Canaan Valley should do real nice. If the ridge axis and heights out west stay the course. Perfect ridge placement and I think the rest of the ingredients will be there in some form or another. 
 

Early call for weds  storm is 2-6” with mix cutting totals and some melting around the city and Nova, 6-12” Winchester through Frederick MD, Baltimore 4-8”, then jacks of 12”+ at elevation Canaan and eastern part of laurel mountains. Central PA jacks as well as parts of jersey.

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Just now, losetoa6 said:

Temps in the low 20s to mid 20s should be good ratio powder for n+w areas . 

Remember though - surface temps are not the sole determining factor for ratios. You can have temps in the teens and be getting poor ratios if other factors like the snow growth zones are not lined up. 

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Gonna put this here. You see, H20 here owes me a bottle of Johnny Walker Blue from a bet on another matter that I won.  In good faith, he did buy it but has not delivered it.  I’m putting this here to memorialize this in case he decides to say he never said this. 

C9A4B438-4A7E-403D-B8BA-CF479E485451.jpeg

Well at least Steve and Howard aren't the only ones on here where their names are known now

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Gonna put this here. You see, H20 here owes me a bottle of Johnny Walker Blue from a bet on another matter that I won.  In good faith, he did buy it but has not delivered it.  I’m putting this here to memorialize this in case he decides to say he never said this. 

C9A4B438-4A7E-403D-B8BA-CF479E485451.jpeg

image.gif.8127302a8a7951343383eb14425d569e.gif

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