Scraff Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Just now, Ji said: im taking a road trip to my front yard Wait what!? Are you actually happy now? Can’t be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Good news remains that it is full of moisture. 1.5"-1.9" through most of MD and N. VA. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Overall, that's a great run IMO. yes cities mix/flip to rain for a time but then flip back verbatim as the coastal cranks (its the game we play along 95). A few minor adjustments would be all frozen even for 95. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 The big ones always mix 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 I still hate the euro. All I'm asking is for a 30mi SE jog on that snow line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Crazy coastal tuck on this run. 850mb winds go from south to north fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Just now, Scraff said: Wait what!? Are you happy now? Can’t be. lol..actually trying to get Randy to respond to me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 5 days guys....5 days. Probably not the best analyze temp profiles this far out until we get inside 72hrs. Literally a 50 mile shift east would the be the difference in all frozen for the cities. Everything's still on the table this far off. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Someone looks to get a shalacking out of this! As far as my area in Southern VA, north of Danville, looks like all 3 possibilities are on the table Snow/Ice/Rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Just now, IronTy said: I still hate the euro. All I'm asking is for a 30mi SE jog on that snow line. It's 5 days away and you are in a climo less favored part of the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Just now, nj2va said: Overall, that's a great run IMO. yes cities mix/flip to rain for a time but then flip back verbatim as the coastal cranks (its the game we play along 95). A few minor adjustments would be all frozen even for 95. pulling out the blizzard of 96 and the Blizzard of 03 also mixed for cities card 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: Good news remains that it is full of moisture. 1.5"-1.9" through most of MD and N. VA. This is good news indeed. I'll take my chances inside the beltway with that. 5 days out to get temps right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 So we now have GFS, CMC, & Euro all on board together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Just now, losetoa6 said: And that's normal too. Deathband will set up in the usual spot as confluence and moisture squeeze it all out with orthographic lift 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Also, weenie rule #35 - CAD always takes longer to scour out than modeled My bar is so low a 2" front end thump would make me happy and that seems almost likely at this point forum-wide. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Just now, BornAgain13 said: Someone looks to get a shalacking out of this! As far as my area in Southern VA, north of Danville, looks like all 3 possibilities are on the table Snow/Ice/Rain. Man got off from work early today after meeting and holy crap I missed like 9 pages lmfao! You need that primary as do I to an extent to die off just a tad quicker but regardless I’m so desperate I don’t care if I get 5” of sleet. The way the last couple of winters have been beggars cannot be choosers. Just happy to be tracking something significant and worthwhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 I was looking at the pivitol maps and I thought that was ice of central PA.. its is actually heavy snow... I vote for a thread now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On the one hand we are still 5 days away. On the other hand, the big ones are sniffed out early. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Just now, jaydreb said: On the one hand we are still 5 days away. On the other hand, the big ones are sniffed out early. EURO slowed it down by about 12 hours. I've done the math, and if that happens every run, it will never snow! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 minute ago, 40westwx said: I was looking at the pivitol maps and I thought that was ice of central PA.. its is actually heavy snow... I vote for a thread now. Eeeek... the kiss of death... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Just now, jaydreb said: On the one hand we are still 5 days away. On the other hand, the big ones are sniffed out early. Every model and pretty much every ensemble is showing a significant snow event in our area... not sure if this is one of those big ones.. but we are certainly in the "this is really gonna hurt if it fails zone" at this point 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 This looks really pretty to my meteorologically uneducated eyes. Pretty cool to see that 50/50 and the block. I remember past discussion of neutral or negative tilt being desirable for the area of low pressure in the southern US, this is relatively neutral right? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 6 minutes ago, Amped said: Crazy coastal tuck on this run. 850mb winds go from south to north fast. Let the model run 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: On the one hand we are still 5 days away. On the other hand, the big ones are sniffed out early. Weather forums are the best at platitudes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 minute ago, caviman2201 said: Eeeek... the kiss of death... Even the 84 hour nam looks good 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 3 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: Also, weenie rule #35 - CAD always takes longer to scour out than modeled My bar is so low a 2" front end thump would make me happy and that seems almost likely at this point forum-wide. With that CAD going in I think a lot of us will stay below freezing at the surface for the entire event. But upstairs? I think we all mix at some point. Even out here in the mountains. The air is cold. But it isnt that cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 37 minutes ago, Fozz said: LOL that’s funny. Forecasts were a bit better in MD. I remember a Winter Storm Watch for 3-6”, and as I was listening on my NOAA radio they were downplaying the chance of a major storm, but still said there’s a good chance of 4”+, which of course was good enough for me. And then the day before the storm it was upgraded to a warning for 4-8” and had the Baltimore area in the bullseye. We ended up with 8” in Lutherville where I grew up, with 7.4” in BWI. And I especially enjoyed it because it was so much more snow than the entire previous season, and the snow cover lasted a long time, long enough to be followed by a moderate ice storm the following week (it would’ve definitely been all rain without the snowpack to cool the surface). So many snow days to enjoy, and PDII was still months away. In fairness to nws CTP State College caught the NE fringe and got super high ratios. It wasn’t like forecasts were 100 miles off with that storm. But getting the edges right is always tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 minute ago, 40westwx said: Every model and pretty much every ensemble is showing a significant snow event in our area... not sure if this is one of those big ones.. but we are certainly in the "this is really gonna hurt if it fails zone" at this point Clown maps just gave me 3/4 of my annual snowfall before the winter solstice. ..it’s just another data point happy to be in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 7 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: Also, weenie rule #35 - CAD always takes longer to scour out than modeled My bar is so low a 2" front end thump would make me happy and that seems almost likely at this point forum-wide. pretty high bar. I would take a 2 feet front end thump too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 6 minutes ago, 40westwx said: I was looking at the pivitol maps and I thought that was ice of central PA.. its is actually heavy snow... I vote for a thread now. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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