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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


yoda
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Just now, nj2va said:

Overall, that's a great run IMO.  yes cities mix/flip to rain for a time but then flip back verbatim as the coastal cranks (its the game we play along 95).  A few minor adjustments would be all frozen even for 95.

pulling out the blizzard of 96 and the Blizzard of 03 also mixed for cities card

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Just now, BornAgain13 said:

Someone looks to get a shalacking out of this! As far as my area in Southern VA, north of Danville,  looks like all 3 possibilities are on the table Snow/Ice/Rain.

Man got off from work early today after meeting and holy crap I missed like 9 pages lmfao! You need that primary as do I to an extent to die off just a tad quicker but regardless I’m so desperate I don’t care if I get 5” of sleet. The way the last couple of winters have been beggars cannot be choosers. Just happy to be tracking something significant and worthwhile.

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Just now, jaydreb said:

On the one hand we are still 5 days away.  On the other hand, the big ones are sniffed out early.  

Every model and pretty much every ensemble is showing a significant snow event in our area... not sure if this is one of those big ones.. but we are certainly in the "this is really gonna hurt if it fails zone" at this point

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3 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

Also, weenie rule #35 - CAD always takes longer to scour out than modeled :D

My bar is so low a 2" front end thump would make me happy and that seems almost likely at this point forum-wide.

With that CAD going in I think a lot of us will stay below freezing at the surface for the entire event. But upstairs? I think we all mix at some point. Even out here in the mountains. The air is cold. But it isnt that cold. 

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37 minutes ago, Fozz said:

LOL that’s funny.

Forecasts were a bit better in MD. I remember a Winter Storm Watch for 3-6”, and as I was listening on my NOAA radio they were downplaying the chance of a major storm, but still said there’s a good chance of 4”+, which of course was good enough for me.

And then the day before the storm it was upgraded to a warning for 4-8” and had the Baltimore area in the bullseye. We ended up with 8” in Lutherville where I grew up, with 7.4” in BWI. And I especially enjoyed it because it was so much more snow than the entire previous season, and the snow cover lasted a long time, long enough to be followed by a moderate ice storm the following week (it would’ve definitely been all rain without the snowpack to cool the surface). So many snow days to enjoy, and PDII was still months away.

In fairness to nws CTP State College caught the NE fringe and got super high ratios. It wasn’t like forecasts were 100 miles off with that storm. But getting the edges right is always tough.  

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1 minute ago, 40westwx said:

Every model and pretty much every ensemble is showing a significant snow event in our area... not sure if this is one of those big ones.. but we are certainly in the "this is really gonna hurt if it fails zone" at this point

Clown maps just gave me 3/4 of my annual snowfall before the winter solstice. ..it’s just another data point happy to be in the game. 

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7 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

Also, weenie rule #35 - CAD always takes longer to scour out than modeled :D

My bar is so low a 2" front end thump would make me happy and that seems almost likely at this point forum-wide.

pretty high bar. I would take a 2 feet front end thump too

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