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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


yoda
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1 minute ago, ryanconway63 said:

with the trends thus far does anybody worry that the bullseye pushes to far south and east?

There are all KINDS of worries.. We are modeling way too far to get the specifics figured out. The jackpots and rain/snow lines can adjust radically.. we just are watching trends and excited when it snows in our back yards.. Details are coming! The consistency is a great sign! The pattern looks great! But we live in a fickle area that can break hearts quickly! 

But i get the concerns! :) We do not want any bad trends!

 

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10 minutes ago, 40westwx said:

yeah the placement of that HP is exactly what we need.  There is not a ton of Cold Air around but I really wasnt surprised when I saw the GFS trend colder this last run.  The ensemble support is very encouraging. 

Not a ton of cold air? It's almost 20 below zero in eastern/southeast canada across a pretty sizeable area during midweek storm on a lot of models

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If everything lines up right, an event like 12/5/2002 might be within reach. One of my favorite moderate snowstorms growing up.

This -NAO is the best that we’ve seen in years, especially after so many years of crappy Atlantic setups. A cold 5-8” throughout the I-95 corridor, just before the holidays, would be such a nice break after all the turmoil of 2020, and after the pathetic non-winter of 2019-20.

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2 minutes ago, Fozz said:

If everything lines up right, an event like 12/5/2002 might be within reach. One of my favorite moderate snowstorms growing up.

This -NAO is the best that we’ve seen in years, especially after so many years of crappy Atlantic setups. A cold 5-8” throughout the I-95 corridor, just before the holidays, would be such a nice break after all the turmoil of 2020, and after the pathetic non-winter of 2019-20.

12/5/02 storm summary for those wondering:  http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2003/05-Dec-02.html

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3 minutes ago, Fozz said:

If everything lines up right, an event like 12/5/2002 might be within reach. One of my favorite moderate snowstorms growing up.

This -NAO is the best that we’ve seen in years, especially after so many years of crappy Atlantic setups. A cold 5-8” throughout the I-95 corridor, just before the holidays, would be such a nice break after all the turmoil of 2020, and after the pathetic non-winter of 2019-20.

This storm looks to be more southern compared to the 2002 storm. We shall see

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Just now, clskinsfan said:

The GFS is really active throughout the run. With multiple chances for frozen for the western burbs and multiple coastals. Temps are an issue. But that makes sense for December. But we are in for a fun few weeks of tracking it looks like. 

Also makes sense when we get blocks! Things do not just ride out to sea without some chance of getting us involved. So true about the climo! The cold is just cold enough to snow, which means it is also just warm enough to not!

 

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11 minutes ago, Fozz said:

If everything lines up right, an event like 12/5/2002 might be within reach. One of my favorite moderate snowstorms growing up.

This -NAO is the best that we’ve seen in years, especially after so many years of crappy Atlantic setups. A cold 5-8” throughout the I-95 corridor, just before the holidays, would be such a nice break after all the turmoil of 2020, and after the pathetic non-winter of 2019-20.

 

Remember how bad forecast were in 2002. there was 4" on the ground with SN+ in state college by the time people saw this paper.  Ended up with 8"

F9bfXEs.png

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Just now, IronTy said:

You can sort of cheat, at least on WB.  While you're refreshing your computer every 5 seconds trying to get the next frame you can just go to the "10 day snow total" and that seems to be released at the start of the run.  You obviously can't get any of the evolution...but who cares all I want to see is snow totals.

nah man. thats not how it works. do better.

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