December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Yup, seems like a good bit of ice solutions, but we're still in a somewhat decent spot

 

That map is just silly. That’s a perfect inversion of what an ice map would look like.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, CAPE said:

2 runs in a row the CMC has a damn near perfect track.

Need a trifecta for the jackpot though

[Amped]

Just now, CAPE said:

2 runs in a row the CMC has a damn near perfect track.

But it went knickerbocker on us this run

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That map is just silly. That’s a perfect inversion of what an ice map would look like.

Yeah. We arent icing while DC is snowing. Not gonna happen. 

[ryanconway63]

Lets also keep in mind that cold air damning is always underestimated by the models until under 48 hours.  Somebody would get alot of ice with that I would imagine.

[Cobalt]

4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That map is just silly. That’s a perfect inversion of what an ice map would look like.

The individual members don't really even show much ice, maybe it's just seeing the snow panels + rain panels and splitting the difference? 

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 minute ago, ryanconway63 said:

Lets also keep in mind that cold air damning is always underestimated by the models until under 48 hours.  Somebody would get alot of ice with that I would imagine.

Not with 850’s below zero. Now if they are above, then nobody south and east is getting snow.

[Steve25]

It's really really really nice to be tracking some kind of actual threat within a week in December. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, Cobalt said:

The individual members don't really even show much ice, maybe it's just seeing the snow panels + rain panels and splitting the difference? 

Yes. It’s not an ice setup 

[Eskimo Joe]

Big takeaway from the 12z GEFS is that only 2 members show a miss, and about 7 show mostly rain. Just about every other run is a nice hit from I-95 NW. Even Baltimore City and DCA get accumulating snow. A good shift overal. Hope the UKMET and Euro agree.

[Cobalt]

Just now, Steve25 said:

It's really really really nice to be tracking some kind of actual threat within a week in December. 

fyp

 

Speaking of which, is this the last time we've actually been tracking a potential WSW event  in the medium range since March 20-21 2018? The Jan storm wouldn't count since all positive trends were basically short range. Even March 20-21 didn't verify, so maybe the last one since Jan 2016??

[WesternFringe]

I don't believe the GEFS, since significant freezing rain rarely pans out in my experience (December '93 Philly area being a major exception). 

On Wednesday, it is likely going to be white rain or snow, and I am betting on snow.  Cheering for the Euro to nod along at 12Z with the CMC, and to a lesser extent the GFS (which fringes me a bit out west here).

[Amped]

I95 jackpot depending on traffic

[ravensrule]

15 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I need to change my underwear.

I purposely wasn’t wearing any when I looked at the maps. I can’t afford that many pairs. 

[WxUSAF]

6 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

fyp

 

Speaking of which, is this the last time we've actually been tracking a potential WSW event  in the medium range since March 20-21 2018? The Jan storm wouldn't count since all positive trends were basically short range. Even March 20-21 didn't verify, so maybe the last one since Jan 2016??

Jan 2019 verified WSW for a good chunk of the area

[psuhoffman]

25 minutes ago, mappy said:

PSU fringed on the double digits

Ratios!

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Jan 2019 verified WSW for a good chunk of the area

Don't ya mean the southern chunj DC definitely...but Baltimore north? Fell just short (BWI literally measured 4.8"--so it was trolling with being .2 inches shy of verification, lol)

[Cobalt]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Jan 2019 verified WSW for a good chunk of the area

True, but we entered NAM range thinking it would be a 2-4/3-5" event. All of the big trends were short range. What I meant was a storm that we could track all the way from med range knowing we have a good shot at WSW criteria for a decent chunk of the subforum. Kind of a niche way to describe it, but just thought it was interesting

[WxUSAF]

8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Ukmet is more progressive and weaker with the coastal low for Wed fwiw.

 

 

Think that's a fairly big adjustment on the crazy uncle?

[WxUSAF]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Don't ya mean the southern chunj DC definitely...but Baltimore north? Fell just short (BWI literally measured 4.8"--so it was trolling with being .2 inches shy of verification, lol)

I had over 11".  That evening band stopped just a few miles east of me.  

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

I had over 11".  That evening band stopped just a few miles east of me.  

Yep like I said...the southern chunk. It was a good HoCo MoCo DC event...we never got too much heavy banding up here.

[TowsonWeather]

31 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Lol. I thought of him as I hit submit. We need him back one day soon. 

Wait...what happened? Where'd he go?

[dallen7908]

In case anyone is wondering GDPS on the pivotal weather plot is the acronym for the operational "Canadian" model. 

[Maestrobjwa]

42 minutes ago, mappy said:

I'd feel so much better if the Icon was onboard

Moderator, moderate thyself!! 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

22 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

The individual members don't really even show much ice, maybe it's just seeing the snow panels + rain panels and splitting the difference? 

Wow, that is so much better than yesterday! Impressive!

[mappy]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Moderator, moderate thyself!! 

I've been told I need to loosen up and have more fun. So, I'm trying! 

[40westwx]

7 minutes ago, mappy said:

I've been told I need to loosen up and have more fun. So, I'm trying! 

you go ahead and do you!!

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

 With the high centered to our north, we look to have sufficient cold air
at the surface as the energy from the low to our west transfers to
the coast and precipitation overspreads the region Wednesday
morning. The potential for a more widespread wintry solution exists
with this system with the cold air at the surface and low pressure
tracking northeastward from the Carolinas and off the Delmarva
Peninsula. Still plenty of time to watch this one at Day 6, but
certainly bears watching given the above. For now, am advertising
rain/snow mix east of the Blue Ridge, with snow the favored ptype to
the west Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.

[40westwx]

8 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

 With the high centered to our north, we look to have sufficient cold air
at the surface as the energy from the low to our west transfers to
the coast and precipitation overspreads the region Wednesday
morning. The potential for a more widespread wintry solution exists
with this system with the cold air at the surface and low pressure
tracking northeastward from the Carolinas and off the Delmarva
Peninsula. Still plenty of time to watch this one at Day 6, but
certainly bears watching given the above. For now, am advertising
rain/snow mix east of the Blue Ridge, with snow the favored ptype to
the west Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.

yeah the placement of that HP is exactly what we need.  There is not a ton of Cold Air around but I really wasnt surprised when I saw the GFS trend colder this last run.  The ensemble support is very encouraging. 

[ryanconway63]

with the trends thus far does anybody worry that the bullseye pushes to far south and east?