Snowchaser Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Elevation will be key for Monday. Wintergreen, VA, Snowshoe, WV and places above 3,000 feet should do solid for Monday. It'll be hard for us east of parkway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Fyp @ravensrule ... how'd I do sensei? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Updated threat maps for Monday and Wednesday from the Baltimore/Washington NOAA Weather Office. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 33 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Early am start as well won't hurt . riding the 0 line IMBY at both 850 and 925, but if rates are heavy enough that's a nice wet snow thump. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Since this is still a long range thread, here is GEFS on Christmas Day. 11 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Just from looking in the NE subforum, 6z EPS has a nice low position at 144hrs. Quite similar to 6z GEFS at the same time. That's all I've seen though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 5 minutes ago, LP08 said: Seems like more rainy solutions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Its not as good a run as 0z. Mean snowfall 2" along I-95 for the mid/late week storm. eta- could be a bit more with the back edge of precip near DC at hour 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 It always seems the 6z/18z runs of the EPS look worse for us than 0z/12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 22 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Since this is still a long range thread, here is GEFS on Christmas Day. GEFS and EPS worlds apart at this range. Have to see how long the block lingers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Just now, frd said: GEFS and EPS worlds apart at this range. Have to see how long the block lingers. Someone smarter and with a better memory can probably correct me, but I feel like there's a correlation between -NAO relaxation and big mid-atlantic snowstorms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Just from looking in the NE subforum, 6z EPS has a nice low position at 144hrs. Quite similar to 6z GEFS at the same time. That's all I've seen though. Almost exactly the same position as 0z run, but a tad weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: Almost exactly the same position as 0z run, but a tad weaker. Strength and orientation of the confluence is key. We want it to be somewhat suppressive so it doesn’t give the primary low room to amplify to our west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 41 minutes ago, nj2va said: Someone smarter and with a better memory can probably correct me, but I feel like there's a correlation between -NAO relaxation and big mid-atlantic snowstorms. The block is really just getting established, so that wouldn't apply in this case. The main issue to me is the degree of amplification/trough orientation, and how it interacts with the area of confluence to our NE. The ridging over Greenland as depicted is not very expansive either, and focused a tad north of where I would like to see it. Inland at elevation this is not as critical. eta- lol i thought you were referring to next week. my reply is in regards to the midweek storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Just now, WxUSAF said: Strength and orientation of the confluence is key. We want it to be somewhat suppressive so it doesn’t give the primary low room to amplify to our west. LOL just said that in my reply to nj2va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 6z Euro is snow verbatim on Monday for the northern half of the forum. At least on WB. Sorry if this was already posted. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 14 minutes ago, nj2va said: Someone smarter and with a better memory can probably correct me, but I feel like there's a correlation between -NAO relaxation and big mid-atlantic snowstorms. @usedtobe did a lot of research with this. Big storms occur during the NAO changing toward a negative state or trending away. Essentially, you need a big event to flip the antecedent state of the oscillation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Strength and orientation of the confluence is key. We want it to be somewhat suppressive so it doesn’t give the primary low room to amplify to our west. Yes. If the block was more expansive towards the western Atlantic, that 50-50 low would be crawling, and we would probably have just enough suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 FYI, since this applies to medium/long term winter weather: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 16 minutes ago, jaydreb said: 6z Euro is snow verbatim on Monday for the northern half of the forum. At least on WB. Sorry if this was already posted. That would be a great way to start the week. Then we roll with snow on snow action Wednesday? Where do I sign up!? Haha. Just hoping 12z continues that Monday trend... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 The euro is beautiful for us out west. Snow on snow has not happened in so long I almost forget what it feels like. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 WB 12Z NAM for Monday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 WxBell snowmaps continue to be lol-tastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 21 minutes ago, Scraff said: That would be a great way to start the week. Then we roll with snow on snow action Wednesday? Where do I sign up!? Haha. Just hoping 12z continues that Monday trend... Those maps are lol. 850/925 are both above freezing for many of us, myself included. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Just now, WxUSAF said: WxBell snowmaps continue to be lol-tastic Kuchera, for reference. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: WxBell snowmaps continue to be lol-tastic terrible. people really need to look at temps before posting them. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: WxBell snowmaps continue to be lol-tastic In these events with very marginal temperatures, the Tropical Tidbits accumulated positive snow depth change are the best maps to examine. They show what the model believes can actually accumulate on the ground. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 5 minutes ago, mappy said: terrible. people really need to look at temps before posting them. I'm pretty sure WxBell assumes 850mb temp below 0C = snow In this very marginal situation, that's going to give a really bad impression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 WRT 00z EPS, 8 of the 50 members have 9" or more of snow at DCA. 24/50 have at least 2". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now