stormtracker Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Euro so close for us coastal folks. Interior getting it good still 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Lol Boston stays all snow because the low bombs 13 mb in 6 hrs and heads due east. Not happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizard021 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Just now, Amped said: Lol Boston stays all snow because the low bombs 13 mb in 6 hrs and heads due east. Not happening Euro weakens enough confluence via height rises, and that is due to the Monday wave trailing slower, a euro bias in the sw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 I'm fine with the EURO run tonight. Move it like 50-75 miles further east and we all cash in. Good runs tonight. EPS should look good. Hope it continues into the 12z suite later this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 6 minutes ago, wizard021 said: Euro weakens enough confluence via height rises, and that is due to the Monday wave trailing slower, a euro bias in the sw. I am really not committed to any solution at this point. Models still suck 6 days out and this run was a pretty big change from the last few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 One of the biggest differences I see from the 12z to the 00z of the ECMWF is the low level warm intrusion from the low tucked closer to the coast in tandem with a stronger surface ridge to the north. 925mb wind field is out of the east for several hrs at 50+kts extending inland to the 81 corridor. This is a dominant warm nose causing the increase in temps at the surface and within the lower confines of the boundary layer. Anytime you get an anomalous u-vector wind without a strong antecedent airmass in place, it would cause issues with p-type extending very far inland. It's a key difference between the two runs and say something compared to the GEM. The UL progression screams big storm at minimum as 5H evolution shows a negatively tilted trough cutting through Tennessee and immediate height falls downstream, along with large region of diffluence ahead of the s/w trough. A slightly stronger area of confluence would help considerably for a more widespread snowfall for the sub-forum, but any type of evolving system will have its boundary aligned SW/NE in a developing storm like this. This is why I relayed that as a bet, I would think the fall line will once again be the point of interest with some degree of movement to the west, pending both the amplitude of the trough and confluent area as storm approaches. Right now, I think the elevated areas west of 95 would be the target chance with Rt15 on west probably in the best spot right now. Won't take much though to get everyone potentially in the game. As things go, I'm happy to see the vigor of the s/w trough still being modeled, which is the ingredient to watch if we want any storm at all. 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 WB OZ EPS for midweek. Trend is still our friend. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 2 hours ago, Ji said: 2 hours ago, DTWXRISK said: the monday event is a cold rain Icon is warm snow Icon is a defective Volkswagen lemon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 Looks like around 30 of the 50 EPS members from tonights 00z run give DCA near or more than 2" of snow Looks like about 20 or so of the 50 EPS members from tonights 00z run give DCA near or more than 6" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 WB 6z NAM Monday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 WB 6z NAM MondayGee more warm snow lol 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ji said: 14 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6z NAM Monday Gee more warm snow lol Appetizer tv snow before the midweek feast, we hope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Just looking over the 0z runs. Overall good stuff for the mid week potential. For I-95/east the CMC op has pretty much an ideal outcome for a mid December storm. Good track, doesn't amp too much/go negative, and the confluence is not displaced so the surface high ends up in a pretty ideal spot. Still a long way to go. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 WB 6Z GFS for midweek. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 06z GFS much nicer run compared to 00z. It even has a chance at some appetizer snow for Monday. Rain verbatim, but the idea that precip gets much farther north is a big shift 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 6z GEFS early week deal. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: 6z GEFS early week deal. Looks like we either get cold rain or slammed 10 percent chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Not a big believer in the Monday event producing much frozen for the lowlands at this juncture. If the heavier precip gets further north, probably a better chance for the nw burbs.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 5 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Looks like we either get cold rain or slammed 10 percent chance. More like 23 percent chance... 7 out of 30 for DCA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 WB 6Z GEFS for midweek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 The Canadian was right that one time back in 2003, this is what I'm hanging my hat on. Perfect track. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 We need a larger variety of maps 3 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: Looks like we either get cold rain or slammed 10 percent chance. Damn it’s really trying hard to snow SW VA and mountains of WV Monday. Can only hope we get something. My fear is Wednesday system blossoms too late and we primarily miss out this way right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 41 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: We need a larger variety of maps Yeah we could use a few more that have snow in my yard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Best run yet for many n+w areas for Monday per Euro. 6z? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Just now, losetoa6 said: Up to 1 inch per hr rate would surely overcome borderline surface this run . nice. ill take that. weathermodels is slower on the roll out of the run. wanna see temps 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Best run yet for many n+w areas for Monday per Euro. Still super marginal with temps at 850 and surface, but trending in the right direction. Maybe a wet paste job. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Stormvistas snowmap way less since it’s probably more realistic with temps, but well see could trend better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Just now, Wentzadelphia said: Stormvistas snowman way less Is this code? Eagle flies at midnite! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: Maybe a warm wet paste job. Fyp @ravensrule ... how'd I do sensei? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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