WVclimo Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 31 minutes ago, Round Hill WX said: Bounced back in a big way at 00z. Barely wavered inside of 144. Still find it funny that all the crazy modeled totals for that storm still busted low here. The 35-40” that fell across Berkeley County was higher than any run I saw leading in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: We’re on the same page. And 24 hours before Bob Ryan will interrupt the 11pm news to say this is gonna be big! I miss Bob Ryan man. And I gotta put in my usual "I hate being in the bullseye" a week out comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 ICON is a brief frozen to rain deal for the mid-week threat. Coastal doesn’t take over until off the NJ/LI coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 27 minutes ago, DTWXRISK said: in a Miller B? dude come on stop lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 2 hours ago, Snowchaser said: I agree. It will be hard for snow in Virginia on Monday. But West Virginia near Snowshoe could see a nice snow event Yea, it looks pretty good for a pasting. They do well when layers look marginal elsewhere. 28 minutes ago, LP08 said: Icon always has issues with precip shield modeling. In reality, the wave is too progressive at h5 and doesn’t support that type of expansive shield to the NW. I call bs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 The 2m 0c line is up in southern Canada Monday afternoon as precip is nearby on the 00z GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 35 minutes ago, DTWXRISK said: in a Miller B? dude come on stop He was talking about Jan 1996 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Bounced back in a big way at 00z. Barely wavered inside of 144. Geez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: The 2m 0c line is up in southern Canada Monday afternoon as precip is nearby on the 00z GFS. Here's the sounding as the precipitation is just brushing DC. Wet-bulb 0C altitude is around 950mb. IF you had some heavy precipitation and could wet bulb down, that's probably some slush bombs, etc. Airmass is pretty crappy, but the thread-the-needle possibility is there, particularly for the northern burbs. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/?model=gfs&runtime=2020121100&fh=90&lat=38.94&lon=-77.04&stationID=&tc=&mode=regular 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 I don't get the excitement for the Monday thing..maybe it's just me. The mid week thing is what I'm looking for. GFS has the High a little slower...which I think is a good thing. Looks more pronounced with CAD so far 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 I don't get the excitement for the Monday thing..maybe it's just me. The mid week thing is what I'm looking for. GFS has the High a little slower...which I think is a good thing. Looks more pronounced with CAD so farA few eps members crushed us Monday. Like 5 out of 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 light snow at DCA at 129 on 00Z GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Hp on gfs is more south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 The problem now is lack of consolidation. Blooms too late for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Just never gets going until it pulls away. Colder this run too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Storm is taking too long to get its act together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 What’s everyone’s take on gfs vs euro and cmc? Which usually wins out in these types of scenarios. Gfs is more or less nuisance event with low taking off too late and/or has a big dry slot come through southern portions of forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 What’s everyone’s take on gfs vs euro and cmc? Which usually wins out in these types of scenarios. Gfs is more or less nuisance event with low taking off too late and/or has a big dry slot come through southern portions of forum. Id take the new dr no. Gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: Gem has no storm lol. where do you see it out past 48? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 High pressure on the GFS just keeps getting colder. I like that. Can't get the handoff to the coast right yet, but it's not far off. I'm good with the run overall. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 H5 look has been slowly changing over the last few runs of the GFS. It’s trending more towards a broad positively titled trough. I’m not smart enough to comment but I think thats probably contributing to the lack of consolidation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Storm is still there at least. Dry slot is a little too close for comfort out this way. We need the transfer further south to really score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Storm is taking too long to get its act together Southern stream is weak. No low coming out of the gulf coast states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, yoda said: where do you see it out past 48? My bad. 12z. Didn’t realize because I had never looked at it. That should tell you what I think of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Storm #1 is screwing up storm #2 - it's in the weenie handbook 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: High pressure on the GFS just keeps getting colder. I like that. Can't get the handoff to the coast right yet, but it's not far off. I'm good with the run overall. I doubt we should expect the Gfs to handle that perfectly at this range anyways. It’s trending better with the things that matter most. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Its a 3-6 out this way. Which i would take in a heartbeat in December in any year. And not complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 Too bad B and W maps suck... cause I see 144 (00z THU) and its a coastal at 998mb off ACY by like a 100 miles or so re 00z GGEM 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 I doubt we should expect the Gfs to handle that perfectly at this range anyways. It’s trending better with the things that matter most. I agree. This better not become dec 31 2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 Good luck lol... might end up being a bit too far E or NE for our liking but its the B and W maps... so it sucks lol... but the coastal is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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