psuhoffman Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 23 minutes ago, Ji said: @psuhoffmantimeframe for the archambault event when the blocking breaks down? Jan 3 Blizzard? Jan 7. Should start in northern VA with pixie dust around 10PM temp near 18*. About a foot by morning. Some dry slotting during the day before a killer deform finish the next night. About 24” at Dulles. ~30 by you. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Jan 7. Should start in northern VA with pixie dust around 10PM temp near 18*. About a foot by morning. Some dry slotting during the day before a killer deform finish the next night. About 24” at Dulles. ~30 by you. the models 48 hours before the storm will have 2 feet in Richmond and 4-8 in DC and 1 inch in philly to too right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 If this data continues, I’m going to head out to Snowshoe, WV Sunday night and stay there until Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Just now, Ji said: the models 48 hours before the storm will have 2 feet in Richmond and 4-8 in DC and 1 inch in philly to too right? We’re on the same page. And 24 hours before Bob Ryan will interrupt the 11pm news to say this is gonna be big! 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: We’re on the same page. And 24 hours before Bob Ryan will interrupt the 11pm news to say this is gonna be big! Nah..he’ll say “still no sign..no sign of our first inch of snow” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Nah..he’ll say “still no sign..no sign of our first inch of snow” man and he used to say that so much. Imagine him now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We’re on the same page. And 24 hours before Bob Ryan will interrupt the 11pm news to say this is gonna be big! By page 55 of the nowcast OBS i'll be complaining of a dry slot after it starts sleeting on top of 12 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 18 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB EPS 3 inches or more for Midweek. Increase from 12Z. Control also increased. GN. the key info I think this post missed is that this is the Monday storm on the Control. Good hit. has the Wednesday storm too I suppose but minus a few early tenths its a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Sheesh... does the ENS control even have any support from the mean? Hell of a way to run a strong NAO block with 50/50 confluence and a high over SE canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 5 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Sheesh... does the ENS control even have any support from the mean? Hell of a way to run a strong NAO block with 50/50 confluence and a high over SE canada. I think someone posted the individual MSLPs but it's got a few members on its side. Lows became less clustered from 12z to 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We’re on the same page. And 24 hours before Bob Ryan will interrupt the 11pm news to say this is gonna be big! So true. I always felt like Bob Ryan was the OG “Dr No” model. Then 24hrs before he would juicy NAM you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 39 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Fun fact with this event...the Ohio primary ended up stronger than progged, BUT the transfer to the coastal was pretty quick. A rare instance where up north into the PA mason/dixon counties boomed and DC didn't switch to rain. This was a rare wind for eveyone. One of the oddities of that storm was how the pacific and the blocking played off each other. Like I said earlier everything depends on so many variables. The pac was a mess. Deep Trough in AK and crashing into the west coast. Normally anything would have cut. But there was the most ridiculous block, centered right near Baffin with a ginormous 50/50 stuck under it at the same time. So all it did was take all the Nino STJ and direct it straight up into a massive wall of confluence. Take away the Uber blocking and that pac configuration wouldn’t work. Put a pna ridge and that confluence probably suppresses anything that has to develop with a further east trough axis. That was a combination of factors that only worked in conjunction with each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: One of the oddities of that storm was how the pacific and the blocking played off each other. Like I said earlier everything depends on so many variables. The pac was a mess. Deep Trough in AK and crashing into the west coast. Normally anything would have cut. But there was the most ridiculous block, centered right near Baffin with a ginormous 50/50 stuck under it at the same time. So all it did was take all the Nino STJ and direct it straight up into a massive wall of confluence. Take away the Uber blocking and that pac configuration wouldn’t work. Put a pna ridge and that confluence probably suppresses anything that has to develop with a further east trough axis. That was a combination of factors that only worked in conjunction with each other. Outside of ‘96 that was the single greatest storm for me in northern DE. Just poured snow for a good 16 hours +. Ended up with 27” of cold powder. Then 4 days later got another 21”. 4 feet in 4 days will never be topped again in this area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 So true. I always felt like Bob Ryan was the OG “Dr No” model. Then 24hrs before he would juicy NAM you. It used to break my heart when he would say “no sign of breaking out the golden snow shovel.” LolNo doubt...the original dr nope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Pretty strong vort signature on the Nam. Maybe a Nam'd coming soon ....by 12z tomorrow. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 32 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Nah..he’ll say “still no sign..no sign of our first inch of snow” Him and the golden snowshovel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 anyone remember that run in Jan 2016 where the12z Euro took us from 25 or so inches to 17 inches and there was one of the biggest panic attacks of all time....of course it bounced back in the 00z run but that was like the longest 12 hours of my life lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 10 minutes ago, Ji said: anyone remember that run in Jan 2016 where the12z Euro took us from 25 or so inches to 17 inches and there was one of the biggest panic attacks of all time....of course it bounced back in the 00z run but that was like the longest 12 hours of my life lol Bounced back in a big way at 00z. Barely wavered inside of 144. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 20 minutes ago, poolz1 said: It used to break my heart when he would say “no sign of breaking out the golden snow shovel.” Lol No doubt...the original dr nope. But for January 1996 at the 11pm news his forecast map was 1-2 feet area wide. I knew then it must be the real deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Icon is a decent hit Monday . Howard county lollie 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Icon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Howard county lollie bullseye Yes, talk dirty to me 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Icon is a decent hit Monday . Howard county lollie bullseye Ummmmm what!? HoCo is here and listening. Hahaha. Tell me more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 hour ago, Ji said: the models 48 hours before the storm will have 2 feet in Richmond and 4-8 in DC and 1 inch in philly to too right? in a Miller B? dude come on stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 It is so freaking close here to it being a bigger deal. 2M in the mid 30s along the 81 corridor. I’m hoping rates can possibly turn it over to a wet a** snow. Looks great for the DC crew and that’s with it having a known warm bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Yes, talk dirty to me 2 minutes ago, Scraff said: Ummmmm what!? HoCo is here and listening. Hahaha. Tell me more! I hate waiting on TT for their "behind" snow maps lol... like everything else is at 108 and snow maps is 72 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 hour ago, JakkelWx said: Sheesh... does the ENS control even have any support from the mean? Hell of a way to run a strong NAO block with 50/50 confluence and a high over SE canada. no one with a brain should ever look at the EPS or GEFS control runs the only met I know that does that is a ****ing idiot Henry M 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: It is so freaking close here to it being a bigger deal. 2M in the mid 30s along the 81 corridor. I’m hoping rates can possibly turn it over to a wet a** snow. Looks great for the DC crew and that’s with it having a known warm bias. counting on the ICON for snowstorm is a LOSE situation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Just now, DTWXRISK said: no one with a brain should ever look at the EPS or GEFS control runs the only met I know that does that is a ****ing idiot Henry M You know you have a “Big Daddy” hat somewhere deep in your closet. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Just now, DTWXRISK said: counting on the ICON for snowstorm is a LOSE situation I agree but it’s all we got right now lollll. I do think H5 wise though it’s similar to GFS and to Euro but I know your feelings about GFS end of the day haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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