jaydreb Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Euro verbatim would send a lot of us off the cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euros a hit. Similar to 0z but a bit colder. @psuhoffman not fringed It’s only a hit depending on where you are. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Just now, jaydreb said: Euro verbatim would send a lot of us off the cliff. Last map then I'll chill for a bit and let the smart people discuss. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Right near where we’d want to be at this range. Nice event. I’ll take it. Low actually tracks a bit inland but that cold high keeps areas N/W of 95 frozen. Plus the model trend is faster handoff to the coastal. 1 minute ago, Amped said: I 81 gets rocked Crushed 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I dont know much about nothing.. but something tells me temps will not be a huge issue with the placement of the high and the blocking pattern that is setting up. It seems like temps come colder when we get a block... Dec 2009 was a great example of that.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Last map then I'll chill for a bit and let the smart people discuss. I am moving to York PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Euro is a classic MECS track....dont dwell on specific thermal boundaries at this range. That is a GREAT look and signal. Maybe we all score, maybe we dont....but this threat is under 7 days and has legs....sexy legs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 minute ago, 40westwx said: I dont know much about nothing.. but something tells me temps will not be a huge issue with the placement of the high and the blocking pattern that is setting up. It seems like temps come colder when we get a block... Dec 2009 was a great example of that.. in CAD we trust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 12z OP Euro is a step in the right direction. I-81 corridor would be staring down their first warning criteria event of the year. NW 'burbs probably a solid advisory event, then it looks to get cooler behind the system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: It’s only a hit depending on where you are. Yeah as always. I know I’m not going to lay money on the cities and close in burbs being all snow for this event, if it happens. But a lot of things to like for some snow for many of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Just now, Interstate said: I am move to York PA Both the euro and the GFS are showing MECs at this point.. successive runs also.. This is fun 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 minute ago, 40westwx said: I dont know much about nothing.. but something tells me temps will not be a huge issue with the placement of the high and the blocking pattern that is setting up. It seems like temps come colder when we get a block... Dec 2009 was a great example of that.. That cold high is why it’s as much frozen as it is. Still too much OH valley low and the 850 low tracks over us or even a bit north of us. That’s not a recipe for 100% snow. Need to kill that thing sooner. But that’s the trend today so far for the gfs and GEFS at least. Hope Eps follows. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Does this trend to a quicker transfer to the coast in future runs...... this will be interesting to track for sure..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: in CAD we trust? I dont really know that much about this.. but I think when you get HP to our north with a blocking pattern in the atlantic and a developing storm to our south... it forces cold air in to our area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: It’s easy to get caught up in the verbatim but you look at the players on the field and there’s no way I’d want a scraper look 6 days out with that blocking in place. Give me wiggle room if that high is analyzed stronger closer to game time. Let’s just keep this looking like this for another 60-72 hrs and then hope we get our usual CAD pregame help. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 looks like the PSUstorm dump...alot of snow in a very quick moving storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: That cold high is why it’s as much frozen as it is. Still too much OH valley low and the 850 low tracks over us or even a bit north of us. That’s not a recipe for 100% snow. Need to kill that thing sooner. But that’s the trend today so far for the gfs and GEFS at least. Hope Eps follows. I remember 2003 was initially forecasted as a snow to rain event of days out.. and then as we go closer and closer to the event.. temps got colder and colder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 12" of snow in 6hr bullseye from HGR to BGM. Actually weakens a bit to 10" in 6hrs over New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Why does the storm seem to move so quickly? I thought a nice block was in place? Other than that, like the look this far out. Hopefully it trends in our direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: That cold high is why it’s as much frozen as it is. Still too much OH valley low and the 850 low tracks over us or even a bit north of us. That’s not a recipe for 100% snow. Need to kill that thing sooner. But that’s the trend today so far for the gfs and GEFS at least. Hope Eps follows. Yup. Just one more tick south and we're all in the game. As it stands now, I get a bit of snow. This far out in December, not sure what more can be asked 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 SLP and 850mb storm track is actually a little better on the 0z euro vs this run. OH valley low hangs on a little longer with a slightly farther north handover and inland track at 12z. Just that high is more potent and we have a much colder airmass to start. Both are very small details at D5-7. Take the 12z high pressure and the 0z low pressure and that’s probably ideal for the metro corridor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Just now, osfan24 said: Why does the storm seem to move so quickly? I thought a nice block was in place? Other than that, like the look this far out. Hopefully it trends in our direction. Blocking isn't set in place. Per the indices posted on Pg 34, we're still lining everything up. The window from 12/20 to 1/1/21 is where you'd possibly see something crawl and slow down. Typically you need to see a big ridge over Idaho as the wave crests the GOMEX for it to really torque and slow down, a la 2016. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 7 minutes ago, 40westwx said: I dont really know that much about this.. but I think when you get HP to our north with a blocking pattern in the atlantic and a developing storm to our south... it forces cold air in to our area.. I agree with this. With a -AO and -NAO tandem in place, things generally tend to trend better or at least hold course rather than the opposite. Haven't had this setup in quite a while. Definitely an eyebrow raiser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 6 minutes ago, 40westwx said: I remember 2003 was initially forecasted as a snow to rain event of days out.. and then as we go closer and closer to the event.. temps got colder and colder that was in Feb and we had a 1050 high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: It’s easy to get caught up in the verbatim but you look at the players on the field and there’s no way I’d want a scraper look 6 days out with that blocking in place. Give me wiggle room if that high is analyzed stronger closer to game time. Exactly...essentially what I'm thinking. And even taking it verbatim with the (silly) snow maps, I take heart in the fact that a couple inches still gets into the cities, with a bit more where I'm at on the northwest side of town. As has been said, get that primary to transfer sooner, rather than when it's up near the OH River, and a lot of people would be quite happy (with the possible exception of Ji, hahaha!). I haven't really been looking at this in detail until just the past day or two, but has the transfer of energy trended one way or another over time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: I agree with this. With a -AO and -NAO tandem in place, things generally tend to trend better or at least hold course rather than the opposite. Haven't had this setup in quite a while. Definitely an eyebrow raiser. Yup. Last year the pattern change was always modeled to be D15 and it got stuck there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yup. Just one more tick south and we're all in the game. As it stands now, I get a bit of snow. This far out in December, not sure what more can be asked Hey Beethoven...ya know this would end up your 250th birthday right? (December 16th is the estimated day!) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 6 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Why does the storm seem to move so quickly? I thought a nice block was in place? Other than that, like the look this far out. Hopefully it trends in our direction. Storm movement speed is never going to be accurately modeled at range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Hey Beethoven...ya know this would end up your 250th birthday right? (December 16th is the estimated day!) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 17 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Hard not to realllly like this going in That is basically a classic look for us. Trends today with 12z have been very good. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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