aldie 22 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Ji > That's It? < Ji 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 17 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: GEFS is gonna be pretty decent. I'll post a map in a sec. Both Storms #jackpotville with 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 The 12z GFS ENS are definitely a step in the right direction. The 1000mb thickness are a touch colder and there is less clustering for the great lakes low. As other have said, we're only a couple of degrees away from a solid early season thump. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Here’s the NA view on the 12Z GEFS leading up to next Thursday’s potential...legit -NAO and 50/50 ish low. Nice look there. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Ukie has a lakes low and ggem is flat and sheared, so still a wide range of possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: Here’s the NA view on the 12Z GEFS leading up to next Thursday’s potential...legit -NAO and 50/50 ish low. Nice look there. i mentioned this morning----its a duel between a good pattern vs bad calendar 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 I'm not upset at the looks so far. This time last year it was total lights out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Ukie has a lakes low and ggem is flat and sheared, so still a wide range of possibilities. Cmc is an outlier to its ensembles 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 WB 12Z GEFS....wishing for P26. Even Mr. Ji might be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 I counted seven members on the multi-ensemble member snowfall map that have me right on or near the borderline of an inch and a foot plus. This is pretty decent agreement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 19 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: It’s about as good as it can get. For all the hand wringing about the pattern breaking down or not showing up, there were hints of a mid-December pattern shift 2-3 weeks ago and here we are on the cusp. Wow! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 38 minutes ago, nj2va said: Here’s the NA view on the 12Z GEFS leading up to next Thursday’s potential...legit -NAO and 50/50 ish low. Nice look there. Yup, wouldn't focus on specifics at the surface but it's definitely an interesting pattern. You can clearly see cold air protruding from Canada and an active southern stream jet. I suspect there will be multiple waves over the coming weeks and NWP models will probably struggle. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Biggest EURO run of the winter incoming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 It would be nice to see some consistency with the Euro. It went from no storm yesterday at 12z to a decent coastal at 0z. I understand it is out there in time and there are many moving parts. Guess we will find out in a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 I am as BULLlSH about Mid DEC for the NE US-- say from PA turnpike north as any one . in fact I made a post last week about DEC 2 abut Mid December potential in the general thread ( which no one looked at ) . I ddnt know which short wave was gong to be the one.. DEC 14 or DEC 16 ...until yesterday. I am bullish about MILLER B DEC 16 event... I think to see something like this in Mid DEC in a moderate La Nina should be a red flag to all the oh woe to me this is a shitty winter crowd I am NOT against posting snow map BUT I loathe the wxbell and weathermodels snow maps ... Give me pivotal weather and euro wx snowmaps. Hell even tropical tidbits snow maps when used correctly are better but yeah yeah for NE USA for 12/16 i am NOT woofing yet .. Growling yes.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Shen valley could SEE i 81 snnowstorm with this event as cold sw va western MD eastern WVA 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 ATLANTIC TELECONNECTIONS LOOK GREAT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 PACIFIC NOT SO MUCH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 the LOW that develops on the front DEC 14 ... temps TOO warm low levels for VA MD DEL NC WVA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Just now, losetoa6 said: Snow along i81 per Euro for Monday yes in the AM but by 18Z readings in Mid 30s... Td 30-32.... could be heavy wet snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 yes in the AM but by 18Z readings in Mid 30s... Td 30-32.... could be heavy wet snowIt can snow at 34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Certainly more confluence so far this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 29 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Biggest EURO run of the winter incoming. This will make or break @Ji irt to whether he gets reaped or not @WxWatcher007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 17 minutes ago, DTWXRISK said: PACIFIC NOT SO MUCH I saw this ^^^ then looked at the actual GEFS h5 anomalies map and am more intrigued by the anchoring in of the Aleutian low the farther the run goes out than the specific indices posted above tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Looks like a good hit for the western burbs, temp issues near the cities on the Euro Edit to add: Much better run than 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Definition of a close shave... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Euros a hit. Similar to 0z but a bit colder. @psuhoffman not fringed 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euros a hit. Similar to 0z but a bit colder. @psuhoffman not fringed I 81 gets rocked 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: It’s about as good as it can get. For all the hand wringing about the pattern breaking down or not showing up, there were hints of a mid-December pattern shift 2-3 weeks ago and here we are on the cusp. Notice the trend towards a -NAO and -AO around the 15th, then another bump down around the 19th. That's probably next week's storm shuffling everything towards a better pattern for snow. Wes had a graphic that showed when the NAO and AO are tanking we typically get some slop storm and then about 10 days later we get a cleaner pass. Looks like it may be happening. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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