H2O Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, mappy said: well shit if the 84hr NAM aint got it, then we should def ignore the rest. the 96hr NAM will have it 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Just saw that and the next panel. Oooohhh baby. 50/50 Low, a High just north of the Lakes, and a storm coming out of the Gulf. Not sure what's so promising about that.. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Through 126, much better confluence/cold press on the GFS for next Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Icon is warm for Monday. Gfs remains south, but getting closer each run lately. Has rain up to southern MD. Boundary layer is warm but 850s below freezing. Surface dew point would suggest we could wet bulb down to near freezing in DC/Baltimore if we had precip. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 7 minutes ago, mattie g said: 50/50 Low, a High just north of the Lakes, and a storm coming out of the Gulf. Not sure what's so promising about that.. Maybe after the 12z runs, we should at least pull the bus out of the garage...but don’t even think about looking for the keys yet. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 12Z GFS is beautiful for the Shenandoah Valley on Wednesday. Winchester gets pummeled midday Wednesday. We lose the surface temps. But that is a dumping. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 the GFS has a perfect track/perfect CAD and its still rain 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Just now, JakkelWx said: Ugh yea this is bullsht Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 GFS is close for Thursday. Temps just struggle to crash. Need the Ohio Valley low to transfer quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Surface is torched but 850s are right there. With that high it’s easy to see this end up colder there imo. Get a full transfer and not have the OH piece hanging around and I agree for us down here. You get smoked this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Congrats PSU. This has all the hallmarks of a forum divider, with the lowlands watching PHL, NYC get pummelled. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Surface is torched but 850s are right there. With that high it’s easy to see this end up colder there imo. This. Maybe it’s a snow-rain-snow deal, but I have a hard time seeing this start as rain with a strong high in prime place for CAD. Not worth sweating these details yet. It’s a nice evolution. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: This. Maybe it’s a snow-rain-snow deal, but I have a hard time seeing this start as rain with a strong high in prime place for CAD. Not worth sweating these details yet. It’s a nice evolution. Interesting to see a non-bombed-out low out bully its way into a high like that with blocking in place. edit: Good track, though, so I suppose it's more about cold than the block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 I really like our chances with this one. Just a slightly faster transfer and we are in good shape. This feels like the one to me. Sure, Monday could work out, but this just seems like it has huge potential and just an overall better chance given teleconnections lining up for this timeframe. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 8 minutes ago, mattie g said: Interesting to see a non-bombed-out low out bully its way into a high like that with blocking in place. edit: Good track, though, so I suppose it's more about cold than the block. Yeah. More an issue of the primary that's along the Ohio river it seems, messing up the thermals. As others indicated, if the transfer is quicker, or if the primary doesn't go that far north, that could do it for us. But not a bad overall look to have a week out. Will be interesting to see what the ensembles show... ETA: You know, even just going with the crazy snow maps (not worth a lot, I know!), about 1-2" snow still manages to get down into the cities and DC area at the end, with obviously much more as you go north and west. That's 1-2" more than we saw the other day! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 6 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I really like our chances with this one. Just a slightly faster transfer and we are in good shape. This feels like the one to me. Sure, Monday could work out, but this just seems like it has huge potential and just an overall better chance given teleconnections lining up for this timeframe. yup getting the precipitation is not the issue for you guys on this particular run. Just need it a little bit colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 GEFS members are boom/bust for Monday/Tuesday but there are still enough hits to keep me interested. Doesn't take much to get me interested, though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Its the standard fall line coastal storm. Higher elevs will do better because 850s to 925 will torch east of I-95. Influence of HP to the north still yet to be set 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 CMC had too much Molson. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: GEFS members are boom/bust for Monday/Tuesday but there are still enough hits to keep me interested. Doesn't take much to get me interested, though. Not bad. Snow on snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 25 minutes ago, Ji said: yea this is bullsht You assessing your posts now? 1 2 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 33 minutes ago, Ji said: the GFS has a perfect track/perfect CAD and its still rain Trends. Lot of time. Let’s see how this evolves. It’s a slight adjustment in boundary temperature from a big hit. Also a few times in recent years guidance showed something at range that didn’t align with the pattern. Each time they adjusted. The most recent was late January last year. There was a coastal threat that at range was a perfect track rain. I said that didn’t make sense with the pattern. In the end the storm stayed suppressed but it would have been cold enough. The guidance adjusted. It was one of the only realistic threats we had all winter. We just didn’t cash in but not due to temps. I’ll agree if it did go down that way it would be troubling. I don’t mind when bad patterns are bad. But if we start losing when everything is perfect that’s a bad sign for something worse then just a bad pattern behind our struggles. But my guess is if this progresses like that Gfs run it would be colder. 27 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: This. Maybe it’s a snow-rain-snow deal, but I have a hard time seeing this start as rain with a strong high in prime place for CAD. Not worth sweating these details yet. It’s a nice evolution. Yea this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Trends. Lot of time. Let’s see how this evolves. It’s a slight adjustment in boundary temperature from a big hit. Also a few times in recent years guidance showed something at range that didn’t align with the pattern. Each time they adjusted. The most recent was late January last year. There was a coastal threat that at range was a perfect track rain. I said that didn’t make sense with the pattern. In the end the storm stayed suppressed but it would have been cold enough. The guidance adjusted. It was one of the only realistic threats we had all winter. We just didn’t cash in but not due to temps. I’ll agree if it did go down that way it would be troubling. I don’t mind when bad patterns are bad. But if we start losing when everything is perfect that’s a bad sign for something worse then just a bad pattern behind our struggles. But my guess is if this progresses like that Gfs run it would be colder. Yea this There is also a slight bit of CAD. That almost always ends up colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 GEFS is gonna be pretty decent. I'll post a map in a sec. Both Storms 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 28 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: This. Maybe it’s a snow-rain-snow deal, but I have a hard time seeing this start as rain with a strong high in prime place for CAD. Not worth sweating these details yet. It’s a nice evolution. I like the more neutral trough axis this run vs 0z, when it was tilting negative as it approached. That likely wont work for places east of the highlands this time of year without super cold air in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: GEFS is gonna be pretty decent. I'll post a map in a sec. GEFS seems to transfer a little bit earlier than the op. Looks awesome. NY gets hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: GEFS is gonna be pretty decent. I'll post a map in a sec. Both Storms Yup. Surface and 500 evolution made a big step. Much more toward favoring a coastal low vs even 6z which showed a primary in the lakes. Confluence to the northeast better as well. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: GEFS is gonna be pretty decent. I'll post a map in a sec. Both Storms Nice cville gets 2-3”. Congrats eastern PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Nudge a 2" contour south of DC and this chance would give me 75% of what I got all last winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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