nj2va Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 GFS says head to the mountains for the 16/17 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Seems strange to see a low off VA beach end up riding straight up the Hudson Valley, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 13 minutes ago, nj2va said: GFS says head to the mountains for the 16/17 storm. Interesting to see that CAD signature show up on multiple models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Ggem just stole about 15 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 40 minutes ago, nj2va said: GFS says head to the mountains for the 16/17 storm. Gefs is further south and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 GEFS says don’t give up on Monday. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 10, 2020 Author Share Posted December 10, 2020 Guess we'll see where this goes... but pretty strong s/w at h5 at 84 on the Euro...looks more consolidated then 12z was at 96 IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 23 minutes ago, yoda said: Guess we'll see where this goes... but pretty strong s/w at h5 at 84 on the Euro...looks more consolidated then 12z was at 96 IMO It’s still a miss for Monday but closer than 12z. Precip (rain) makes it into southern VA on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Euro also close to a hit (for me) next Thursday. Snow verbatim for much of this forum. Looks like some busy tracking upcoming. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 10, 2020 Author Share Posted December 10, 2020 Anyone have the EPS for both systems? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 23 minutes ago, yoda said: Anyone have the EPS for both systems? Round 1 Round 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 8 hours ago, hazwoper said: Seems strange to see a low off VA beach end up riding straight up the Hudson Valley, no? Just looking at the GFS, the trough amplifies and goes negative pretty early. That general idea would be problematic for the lowlands. Interior elevated areas could do well as long as it doesn't track too far inland. Still about a week out, so plenty to be resolved. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 @WxWatcher007 below normal air mass growing and on the advance in the latest 10 day mean. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 WB 6z EURO....for Monday low run does not go out far enough but through 7pm Sunday is further North compared to 0Z. We’ll see what EPS says. ( so much for following my own advice to wait until Sunday to look again)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Still learning and seeing how this cluster tool really performs. Also this post is more so geared across the pond. But looking at the forecast versus previous forecasts it appears the intense blocking forecasted near Greenland has shifted. I am interested in the EPS and GEFS runs this afternoon to see whether the always elusive Greenland blocking for fantasy land is starting to wash out and or shift more East. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, frd said: Still learning and seeing how this cluster tool really performs. Also this post is more so geared across the pond. But looking at the forecast versus previous forecasts it appears the intense blocking forecasted near Greenland has shifted. I am interested in the EPS and GEFS runs this afternoon to see whether the always elusive Greenland blocking for fantasy land is starting to wash out and or shift more East. ?? The Greenland block is already developing right now as of this moment. This isn't a fantasy like it was last year. Not sure what the point of that tweet is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 38 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: ?? The Greenland block is already developing right now as of this moment. This isn't a fantasy like it was last year. Not sure what the point of that tweet is. It's always difficult to predict how long it will persist. I like seeing the core of the +height anomalies shift further sw later in the ensemble runs, more towards the Davis Strait and Baffin. That's the sweet spot for the MA. Initially it looks to be focused over the Northern half of Greenland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 6z Eps more impressive with the day 6/7 threat . Stronger with hp to the north . A bit better confluence to the ne . Yeah. Both the 0z and 6z aren't impressive at all with the Monday deal but tons a good solutions for Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 6z Eps more impressive with the day 6/7 threat . Stronger with hp to the north . A bit better confluence to the ne . The confluence/convergence up there is something to keep an eye on in future runs. That 50-50 low is moving pretty quick on the latest GFS runs as the trough digs and heights build in front. Surface HP is on the move further NE as a result. It might help if the developing block was further along, or a bit more expansive, to hold that low in position longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Hr 138 Eps This is actually a decent look. Better than the GEFS surface depiction at that time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Monday is no doubt a thread the needle and favors n+w if it materializes with so little cold air around but I'm not ready to give up on a system 100 hours out . My gut says it ends up too amped for anyone . Agreed. EPS not enthusiastic about Monday but can’t write it off yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Monday would have to thread a needle. Thermals will be a problem. The spacing between systems and the angle of the front is problematic. If the front clears the storm likely stays south. If it doesn’t it’s warm. Very narrow window for frozen. Not impossible but unlikely imo. The threat after that though is looking better across all guidance and might be our first real good opportunity. Plenty of hits in all 3 ensembles. More importantly the idea is supported by the major teleconnections 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: Monday would have to thread a needle. Thermals will be a problem. The spacing between systems and the angle of the front is problematic. If the front clears the storm likely stays south. If it doesn’t it’s warm. Very narrow window for frozen. Not impossible but unlikely imo. The threat after that though is looking better across all guidance and might be our first real good opportunity. Plenty of hits in all 3 ensembles. More importantly the idea is supported by the major teleconnections Important to remember that the Monday and Wednesday/Thursday storm are going to be linked. Have to see how Monday goes and how it preconditions the atmosphere. Definitely agree that Monday is a needle threader. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 6z gfs is very similar to last night's ICON with the midweek storm. They both jump to the coast around the mouth of the bay. With a decent cold air mass that would work out here in the Shenandoah Valley. CAD is showing up on the models. But it isn't really that cold. Verbatim it is still a thump to dryslot. But I would feel better with a stronger hp over the top. Still tons of time left though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 29 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Hr 138 Eps Definitely a signal. Hour 168 has a LP off the coast and HP across SE Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 35 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Hr 138 Eps Just saw that and the next panel. Oooohhh baby. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 I'll be back in MD from the 11th through the 20th so hoping we can sneak in a storm. Maybe I can bring some good snow vibes with me. Been snowing every single day here since last Friday. About 16" OTG. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Control is very similar to the EPS...But man...what a look! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Hmmmm Nam is out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 25 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: Hmmmm Nam is out well shit if the 84hr NAM aint got it, then we should def ignore the rest. 1 1 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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