SnowLover22 Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 strange, this is clearly not a freezing rain sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 28 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 979mb east of OCMD Canadian pants tent Those Canadians can erect some really nice things. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 1 minute ago, ravensrule said: Those Canadians can erect some really nice things. They’ve been rock solid so far this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 They fixed the gfs too well apparently. Its the new dr no 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 We've been seeing quite a few coastals so far, so it's all a matter of getting cold enough. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 will be an interesting run of the Euro at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 25 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: strange, this is clearly not a freezing rain sounding. I wouldn't waste time looking at soundings at that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: I wouldn't waste time looking at soundings at that range. still makes you wonder why the model "thinks freezing rain" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 8 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: We've been seeing quite a few coastals so far, so it's all a matter of getting cold enough. LOL, you make it sound so easy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 1 minute ago, SnowLover22 said: still makes you wonder why the model "thinks freezing rain" Dunno...from a quick glance the best lift is not in the dendritic snow growth zone...but that wouldn't fully explain it. Could be a thickness based algorithm. But wasting a lot of time trying to figure out a very specific detail of a op run at that range that has no chance of being completely accurate is a waste of time anyways. If this was 24 hours out then we could try to parse that...and obviously the simple answer is its a mistake. Why...I don't know enough about their precip type algorithms to say. I don't really use those things to tell me what is going to happen anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 6 minutes ago, IronTy said: LOL, you make it sound so easy. Mix precip and cold. It really is that simple. Problem is we are latitudinally challenged. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Was just looking at 00z Eps and there is def a nice signal for a storm in this time frame. Pretty good pattern too with 50/50 low although a bit farther N.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Man it is nice seeing a -NAO for once. Stable too 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: Man it is nice seeing a -NAO for once. Stable too that's legit...not some bootleg transient ridge...straight -NAO...no chaser. And it really starts to build in the short range not some unicorn long range fantasy. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 17 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: still makes you wonder why the model "thinks freezing rain" I found your answer...damn you, you got me curious and so I had to go look. The precip and ptype you are looking at is for the previous 6 hour period. So you are looking at the skewT for the very end of that 6 hour period. At that time it is very obviously snowing. But if you go back and look at hour 192 there is a warm layer at around 700mb. That is pretty high up and close to the snow growth region. That would definitely be a problem. A small barely above freezing layer lower down could easily be mixed out by heavier precip. But if the snow growth region is warm...well that's a problem. Now...is that warm layer right, probably not. Because no detail is right at that range. But that is why the precip type is showing mixing. Its very likely sleet as the below freezing layer under the warm layer is pretty thick. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: that's legit...not some bootleg transient ridge...straight -NAO...no chaser. And it really starts to build in the short range not some unicorn long range fantasy. So...is it too early start talking about the lag effect of last year's solar minimum being a possible factor this year? Or perhaps we should give it a little time to make SURE it's gonna happen? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Finally seeing NW Canada turn below average temperature-wise. A good sign moving forward. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Then the trough over Alaska retros over the Aleutians and you can see the response on the west coast as ridging will start expanding into western Canada (hopefully) as @psuhoffman said earlier with the 6z GEFS. Could be rushed but end of the month into January looks far from a Nina... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 GEFS trying hard at the trifecta as we near the holidays. Aleutian trough further SW should allow a better PNA ridge this run.... -NAO still cranking as well. A shut out is alway possibility but I feel like tracking will ramp up quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 6 minutes ago, LP08 said: Then the trough over Alaska retros over the Aleutians and you can see the response on the west coast as ridging will start expanding into western Canada (hopefully) as @psuhoffman said earlier with the 6z GEFS. Could be rushed but end of the month into January looks far from a Nina... If you get just enough blocking it sets off a chain reaction that reconfigured a Nina look into a workable one. What I found was we actually do ok in a Nina if we have a cooperative AO/NAO. Problem is that’s not all that common. Nina tropical forcing tends to favor a +NAM state more often then not. But in cases where we do get help up top it can snow in a Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If you get just enough blocking it sets off a chain reaction that reconfigured a Nina look into a workable one. What I found was we actually do ok in a Nina if we have a cooperative AO/NAO. Problem is that’s not all that common. Nina tropical forcing tends to favor a +NAM state more often then not. But in cases where we do get help up top it can snow in a Nina. Xmas Eve storm? LOCK IT UP almost @CAPE avatar lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Xmas Eve storm? LOCK IT UP almost @CAPE avatar lol Haven't seen a legit -NAO in forever. Congrats NC? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 12z euro has the ‘cmc’ wave out west at 132, question will be will the northern branch out race it to help solidify the Cold HP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 22 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So...is it too early start talking about the lag effect of last year's solar minimum being a possible factor this year? Or perhaps we should give it a little time to make SURE it's gonna happen? Lol I wouldn't automatically attribute anything to just one factor without a lot more research and data. It could be the solar minimum. Or maybe its something else and its just a coincidence. Or maybe the solar minimum is just a part of the equation and there are other factors contributing also. There are way too many variables to just pin it on one thing. If it was that easy forecasting wouldn't be so difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Euro got rid of the follow up wave btw, caved once again to the other models. I said before when the euro is on an island you better hope other models jump on soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 144–Looks like euro is going to phase the northern piece too soon this run. There will be a storm though based on H5 but probably on the warmer side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 I would never complain again if the CMC verified. Good lord what an absolute mammoth of a storm for the entire forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said: Euro got rid of the follow up wave btw, caved once again to the other models. I said before when the euro is on an island you better hope other models jump on soon None of the models when on an island without any other support is a good bet, especially not at that range. There is a lot of moving parts in this pattern. We will see how it shakes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: None of the models when on an island without any other support is a good bet, especially not at that range. There is a lot of moving parts in this pattern. We will see how it shakes out. Yeah I’m not counting it out at this range. Just saying the idea for a crazy wrapped up ULL was most likely a bias coming into play. I’m really enthusiastic about the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 4 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Laugh if you want but beware the model that’s in its own. It was one thing when this had support from the Canadian and the ICON but with them moving toward the gfs I’m skeptical. Sage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now