December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Ralph Wiggum]

45 minutes ago, Ji said:

ive seen worse but ive seen better @Yeoman

If this one doesn't work out, there's always another behind it.

[JakkelWx]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

If this one doesn't work out, there's always next year

FYP

[DownpourDave]

GFS D12 is interesting. All caveats apply of course but this is a nice H5 setup. 

 

[DownpourDave]

Just now, losetoa6 said:

HH delivers per Gfs.  Almost twice in 10 days 

dammit ninja'd

[Weather Will]

2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

HH delivers per Gfs.  Almost twice in 10 days 

Day 8 close to a CAD setup and a hit day 10 

WB 18Z GFS...fringed.

[midatlanticweather]

GFS and a stupid GL low! That thing always causes problems. BUT, I put no stock in any of this.. as @Ji can attest! I must not believe anything.. I will jinx it.

Interesting nonetheless.. lots of time for failure

 

[aldie 22]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS...fringed.

Ji would cut his wrists 

[Ralph Wiggum]

9 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS...fringed.

If it weren't for the fact it was the GFS rather than the Euro showing this, DT would have already started threads in no less than 3 subforums. 

[IronTy]

13 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS...fringed.

Wow look it's a day 10 storm.  I've not seen one of those before on the GFS.  

[poolz1]

No shortage of blocking in this op run....just a matter of time until we get our digital snow.

[JakkelWx]

21 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Wow look it's a day 10 storm.  I've not seen one of those before on the GFS.  

I totally didn't see that last December either!

[IronTy]

2 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

I totally didn't see that last December either!

Sounds like a legit threat then.  

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS...fringed.

 

 

Just where we want it, as they say...whoever they are.

[nj2va]

54 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Agree. I personally liked the whole run . Multiple chances with only subtle changes needed .

Not saying this winter is going to be a blockbuster by any means but at least so far, its vastly different than last year in that we at least have workable looks.

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Just where we want it, as they say...whoever they are.

Doesn’t matter because it won’t go down exactly like any op at that range but given that h5 I would expect that storm to adjust north some anyways. 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Not saying this winter is going to be a blockbuster by any means but at least so far, its vastly different than last year in that we at least have workable looks.

Better looks, but same results so far. It's super early though. The next few weeks will be telling. 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Not saying this winter is going to be a blockbuster by any means but at least so far, its vastly different than last year in that we at least have workable looks.

The NAO and AO are trending the exact opposite way from this time last year.  That’s one way to offset hostile pacific forcing. 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Better looks, but same results so far. It's super early though. The next few weeks will be telling. 

Early to mid December is really not a good time to try to rely on the Atlantic to offset the pac. When I broke down all our snows that was rarely  how we got our December snowfalls. We really need the pac to cooperate early. But imo if we can keep this general idea rolling as we head later in Dec or better into January and February it should work out a few times

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The NAO and AO are trending the exact opposite way from this time last year.  That’s one way to offset hostile pacific forcing. 

Run the GEFS trend function on that timeframe for the last few days and watch the NAO ridge push in and lower heights along the east coast. 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Early to mid December is really not a good time to try to rely on the Atlantic to offset the pac. When I broke down all our snows that was rarely  how we got our December snowfalls. We really need the pac to cooperate early. But imo if we can keep this general idea rolling as we head later in Dec or better into January and February it should work out a few times

Agreed. December 2005 and 2009 were exceptions in this regard. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Early to mid December is really not a good time to try to rely on the Atlantic to offset the pac. When I broke down all our snows that was rarely  how we got our December snowfalls. We really need the pac to cooperate early. But imo if we can keep this general idea rolling into January and February it should work out a few times

I am generally of the belief that we ultimately need some decent PAC periods to have success this winter. I keep saying it, but I have more faith in a favorable EPO period than a blockbuster NA saving us from a persistently crappy Pacific.

[snowman19]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Early to mid December is really not a good time to try to rely on the Atlantic to offset the pac. When I broke down all our snows that was rarely  how we got our December snowfalls. We really need the pac to cooperate early. But imo if we can keep this general idea rolling into January and February it should work out a few times

^This. We had pretty much 2 epic winters in a row (13-14, 14-15) with Pacific cooperation (-EPO) and zero AO and NAO cooperation. Why? Because everything is moving west to east on our side of the hemisphere. When you have garbage coming in from the PAC side, you are screwed even with a good AO/NAO under a latitude of about central New England, all it’s doing is trapping the garbage coming off the Pacific....

[PivotPoint]

1 hour ago, SnowLover22 said:

GFS D12 is interesting. All caveats apply of course but this is a nice H5 setup. 

 

This is the time frame I mentioned couple days ago. It’s interesting to me because of the storm prior to this (15/17th) seems to consistently be there run-to-run. Making for some blocking. However, the ridge out west is all over the place each model run and is super key to this recipe coming together.

I think the odds are That the ridge out west flattens out and this cuts. But there’s a chance if we can get inside the weekend and it’s still in some form on the models.

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I am generally of the belief that we ultimately need some decent PAC periods to have success this winter. I keep saying it, but I have more faith in a favorable EPO period than a blockbuster NA saving us from a persistently crappy Pacific.

Agreed. The Pacific sets up the incoming trajectory. If it's coming from a bad angle, we're kinda cooked from the start.

[WinterWxLuvr]

I still think the gfs is all over the place when you get out to about 7 days with regard to the small scale 500 features. Hard for me to place faith in it.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Also something to consider is the fact that the Euro, CMC, Icon all have a major storm in the southeast US on Monday morning. The gfs has nothing. Literally nothing. I don’t trust that either. So I can’t trust its forecasts after that.

[clskinsfan]

At least the models are pretty set on an active pattern for the next couple of weeks. Better than having nothing to track at all. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

I am generally of the belief that we ultimately need some decent PAC periods to have success this winter. I keep saying it, but I have more faith in a favorable EPO period than a blockbuster NA saving us from a persistently crappy Pacific.

I would have agreed a month ago. But the AO/NAO seem to want to play nice at times so far. This upcoming pattern is one that would probably work ok if it repeats in January or February.  It could work out now but it had a better chance the deeper into winter we get. 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I still think the gfs is all over the place when you get out to about 7 days with regard to the small scale 500 features. Hard for me to place faith in it.

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

In your research were you just including WSW events or both WWA and WSW snows . Just curious.  I can remember dozens of 1-3" snows myself in November/December.  They r much easier to come by as you know.  I think most here would take an inch . Definitely harder to get a 4-8" region wide hit before Christmas. Hopefully it hits on Xmas eve or Xmas day 

For my full study only warning level.  I did look at more snowfalls a while ago for Nina specific years...I think I started the cutoff for that at 2".  You have to draw the line somewhere...there are way too many 1-2" type events to do a deep analysis of all of them.  At least when I am not getting paid for any of this and have to do it on my own very limited time.  If I was getting paid to do it I would gladly analyze every cartopper we ever got and break down the pattern.   But honestly, its kinda a pathetic state of affairs that we are drooling over the thought of 1" of snow anyways...back when I started the study I was looking at "significant" snowfalls.  Due to our lack of any snow at all recently what we call "significant" may have changed since then lol.  

ETA: including a lot of 1-2" events also would skew the results quite a bit since you can luck into those in a pretty mediocre or bad pattern sometimes...so you end up getting not very useful results.