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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


yoda
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40 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I remember one legit one, when I lived in Carroll county. Strong cold front with heavy snow squalls(and thunder) where it melted on the roads for like the first 5-10 mins as temps crashed.

Had a couple here since moving north. 2013-2014 winter I think 

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3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I wish I was smart enough to understand what that video HM posted is really showing.  Evolving NA block? 

Essentially HM is saying the perturbation of the jet stream is going to put us in a more favorable for high latitude blocking in the North Atlantic as we enter December. It's not set in stone, but it's better than what the past 2 winters have shown.

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7 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Ji's JMA is a little later with the phase 

 

jma-all-namer-mslp-6780800.png

This reminds me of when I was a kid and watching the dearly departed Bill Matheson on ITV Edmonton, Alberta, describing the Mother Low sending off Little Lows.   What is pictured above is a Mother Low and a Little Low which has been dispatched to the Northwest Territories.

It was also important to keep your eye on an Idaho High.

(Apologies if this belongs more in Banter.)

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2 hours ago, yoda said:

Though... Day 8-10 looks quite serviceable to me looking up top.  Probably wrong... but looks like a nice PNA ridge where we want it by Day 10 with high heights in Greenland and looks like some decent blocking?  Or am I confusing things?

ecmwf_z500a_namer_9.png

ecmwf_z500a_namer_10.png

ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png

I agree. This is the first legit potential event if it holds for a few days. The pattern is conducive. Nice PNA. Blocking isn’t amazing but it’s there, a nice Pre storm ULL...., issue has to do with timing and placement as always with how that 2nd shortwave kind of swings under the ULL and where that ULL sets up. It could go to crap if it takes too long. Then you’d have another over phased Great Lakes low, but as it stands this might be our first track. 

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Fwiw, the latest extended GEFS keeps the same general h5 look, and gets below normal temps into central Canada around mid December. There is a relaxation of the PNA ridge around that time, but then the +PNA reemerges(axis a tad further west) and the  EPO goes negative (around xmas). The NA is generally serviceable throughout.

 

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54 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Fwiw, the latest extended GEFS keeps the same general h5 look, and gets below normal temps into central Canada around mid December. There is a relaxation of the PNA ridge around that time, but then the +PNA reemerges(axis a tad further west) and the  EPO goes negative (around xmas). The NA is generally serviceable throughout.

 

Hmm interesting. That seems in conflict with the MJO moving into the torch phases (4-6) over and east of the maritime continent.  I wonder if mid- December will trend warmer on the progs. But MJO doesn’t always rule the roost, so maybe there are conflicting signals, but I don’t see what would keep us chilly?  
 

 

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6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Hmm interesting. That seems in conflict with the MJO moving into the torch phases (4-6) over and east of the maritime continent.  I wonder if mid- December will trend warmer on the progs. But MJO doesn’t always rule the roost, so maybe there are conflicting signals, but I don’t see what would keep us chilly?  
 

 

The proverbial turd in the punchbowl post lol

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5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

The proverbial turd in the punchbowl post lol

Ha. 
 

We’ve got a nice pattern the first 10-14 days of December and already have a window or two picked out. That’s really good for December! Especially in a mod/strong Nina! 

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