December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Maestrobjwa]

54 minutes ago, Ji said:

Ggem gets us snow to rain

Op run analysis 10 days out, eh? Lol

[yoda]

Is it just me, or does Day 10 on the Euro tonight - as per usual lol - look at least a little bit interesting at h5?  Like if it went out another day maybe a decent system for us?

[Ralph Wiggum]

46 minutes ago, yoda said:

Is it just me, or does Day 10 on the Euro tonight - as per usual lol - look at least a little bit interesting at h5?  Like if it went out another day maybe a decent system for us?

Not sure. There is the return flow from a 'Bermuda high' which is something that has been prominent for months on-end. Also you have a low in the GL region which recently has been shown to either hang in there or drift N/NE rather than progressing E and dragging a front thru reinforcing cold (which is what you would want looking at that map verbatim). Neither of those things have worked out thus far and imo we are seeing a pattern setting up (Nina?) that favors more of a SW flow behind HP headed for Bermuda as well as LP in the Lakes. If we are going to get things to periodically work for us this season we will need help from the NAO. 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

Is it just me, or does Day 10 on the Euro tonight - as per usual lol - look at least a little bit interesting at h5?  Like if it went out another day maybe a decent system for us?

 

20 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Not sure. There is the return flow from a 'Bermuda high' which is something that has been prominent for months on-end. Also you have a low in the GL region which recently has been shown to either hang in there or drift N/NE rather than progressing E and dragging a front thru reinforcing cold (which is what you would want looking at that map verbatim). Neither of those things have worked out thus far and imo we are seeing a pattern setting up (Nina?) that favors more of a SW flow behind HP headed for Bermuda as well as LP in the Lakes. If we are going to get things to periodically work for us this season we will need help from the NAO. 

Verbatim its a trailing cold front from low that moves across the Great Lakes, and there is some pretty cold air behind it. The WA high looks like it slows the progression of the front some, and there is are a couple of shorwaves digging south ahead of the western ridge. Too much analysis for day 10, but that is a pretty interesting set up.

[frd]

11 hours ago, poolz1 said:

18z gfs op puts a real hurt'n on the spv...  I get all the caveats but good to see op runs pick up on the mid month attack.  The more robust the better....Lets throw a major wrench in this nina!

Interesting look later in the month. Eventual outcomes uncertain, however, there is definitely pressure on the vortex and also a disconnect between the spv and the tpv.

 

London & Southeast

 

@TheSnowDreamer

 

Another GFS run which turns up the heat in stratosphere and really stretches out PV not as impressive of 18z from last night, but that was something. Signs of a double pinch wave 2 action this is really what we want to see for a split. One such split we had in February 2018.

 

 

 

3:35 AM · Dec 7, 2020

[frd]

@psuhoffman certainly an eye opener.  This SST distribution interacting with the Nina is something new. 

 

Anthony Masiello

 

@antmasiello

 

Recently inspired by

@Climatologist49

SST tweet, here's the raw mean ERSSTv5 SST plotted for the North Pacific (off-equator). Nov 2020 is the warmest in the data set. Since 2014, we've been at/above 294.5 K (~70.4°F). Top-3 warmest are 2018, 2019 and 2020.

 

 

9:34 PM · Dec 6, 2020

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

 

Verbatim its a trailing cold front from low that moves across the Great Lakes, and there is some pretty cold air behind it. The WA high looks like it slows the progression of the front some, and there is are a couple of shorwaves digging south ahead of the western ridge. Too much analysis for day 10, but that is a pretty interesting set up.

Yep, we need the front to press thru via the low in the Lakes. Haven't seen that work often in recent weeks. Been a general repetitive theme trying to time the GL low progression and front with the trailing low left behind in the SE. Maybe this time works. I know several of us including myself were eyeing mid month before we shut the blinds for a bit, so may this one happens. 

Eta: GEFS/GEPS vs EPS for that period. EPS flattens the SE/WA Ridge and appears to be allowing the front to press thru potentially setting things up afterward. GEFS/GEPS keep the Nina look we've seen with the SE/WA Ridge where the GL low drifts NNE and the trailing front remains hung up to the West of us. 

[frd]

 

For late December, after the 20 th,  looking likely we warm up, not surprisingly.  

Seems the models mostly correct warmer in this new multi-year base state. 

Euro doing poorly, similar to last year's forecast of a descending  - EPO. 

What is even more so disturbing is the performance of the EPS  and the forecast failure in this ensemble regarding the - EPO and now the complete change up. Once again modeling in this domain in general is not to be trusted. You can see below from Bamwx. 

The window near mid-month I think is trending more so to areas North of us. Nothing really inspiring any confidence we see any significant snow during the favored period, maybe snow showers, or a snow to rain scenario. However, you can never be certain this far out. 

Also, keep in mind the consistent theme of inland runner, coastal huggers and cutters. Ned to change that up to score anything meaningful manner in Jan or Feb. 

I am interested in the next + PNA period. Wondering though if once again our cold air source region will be a concern.Northwest Canada is finally getting a bit colder though.   

 

 

 

 

 

 

[jaydreb]

At least the EPS and GEFS both have a decent -NAO continuing in the long range.  

[Snowchaser]

Might have something in the makings here. 

 

[WxUSAF]

^Icon leaves a lot of energy behind the main cutter and keeps the streams separate. That’s what we want for a frontal wave type deal. Gfs made a clear move toward that today, but not enough. 
 

ggem still has a CAD situation on the 16th.

[WxUSAF]

Uber-long range, Paul Roundy keeps saying how his MJO analogs support Greenland blocking by late December and into January. Interestingly, that’s what the extended GEFS show...

[clskinsfan]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Uber-long range, Paul Roundy keeps saying how his MJO analogs support Greenland blocking by late December and into January. Interestingly, that’s what the extended GEFS show...

At least it appears we wont be dealing with a putrid Atlantic this year. I will take my chances with a -NAO winter for once. It has been a unicorn for years at this point. 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Uber-long range, Paul Roundy keeps saying how his MJO analogs support Greenland blocking by late December and into January. Interestingly, that’s what the extended GEFS show...

Yea I keep noticing that for a while now the extended GEFS goes to a pretty good looking pattern in January.  The pacific ridge shifts poleward more and combined with the NAO ridging forces that TPV out of AK/western Canada.  That is a look we would definitely take in January.  But its way out in fantasy land for now.  

[pasnownut]

I can roll w/ this....would be nice to see some clippers. Snowbelts likely approve as well.  

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I can roll w/ this....would be nice to see some clippers. Snowbelts likely approve as well.  

Unfortunately the lower heights your seeing there is likely just dry cold behind the cutter. The next wave would be the chance unfortunately guidance is retrograding the TPV which pumps a ridge in the east before that next wave can get here. That could easily change with a minor adjustment at that range though. 

[frd]

55 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea I keep noticing that for a while now the extended GEFS goes to a pretty good looking pattern in January.  The pacific ridge shifts poleward more and combined with the NAO ridging forces that TPV out of AK/western Canada.  That is a look we would definitely take in January.  But its way out in fantasy land for now.  

Meanwhile we keep the  PV in check throughout December, much better than last year.  That raises the possibility of an improved NAM state in January, despite seasonal model calls.  Maybe the appearence of the elusive - NAO as mentioned by others here as well. 

I like the recent trends of the AO . 

Also, few members of the 35 day GEFS family go Easterly, yes, not many, but more than a few days ago.  

All in all we stay in the game. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Ji]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Uber-long range, Paul Roundy keeps saying how his MJO analogs support Greenland blocking by late December and into January. Interestingly, that’s what the extended GEFS show...

i thought late Dec/early Jan was suppose to be a disaster lol

 

models were pretty good....alot of us saw this kind of 500 map from 2 weeks out for this date. Unfortunately, most decent looks to even produce for our area

 

[DTWXRISK]

15 minutes ago, Ji said:

i thought late Dec/early Jan was suppose to be a disaster lol

 

models were pretty good....alot of us saw this kind of 500 map from 2 weeks out for this date. Unfortunately, most decent looks to even produce for our area

 

  dude  you NEVER  think

 you  react  emotionally  all the time

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Unfortunately the lower heights your seeing there is likely just dry cold behind the cutter. The next wave would be the chance unfortunately guidance is retrograding the TPV which pumps a ridge in the east before that next wave can get here. That could easily change with a minor adjustment at that range though. 

I know, but the look beyond is starting to look a little better, and I like many, don't pay too much attention beyond 10 days for lr maps.  Tellies suggest a window and to me the maps are coming around to that idea.  SER still there, but less ominous, and more zonal/nw flow which is far better to work with.  Thats my takeaway right now....

 

 

 

[RedSky]

34 minutes ago, DTWXRISK said:

  dude  you NEVER  think

 you  react  emotionally  all the time

 

Sounds like Obi Wan giving Ji force tips

[pasnownut]

25 minutes ago, RedSky said:

 

Sounds like Obi Wan giving Ji force tips

or pot callin kettle.....

[CAPE]

Best thing that I can say about the Euro Weeklies, it that they are the Euro Weeklies. The skill is far less than the 15th day of the one EPS run they are initialized on. That said, the new edition has a craptastic EPAC most of the way, with varying degrees of NA help to partially mitigate. Nothing surprising there, since we are already seeing that now- it is simply a continuation. Some hints of the AK trough relaxing way out there and maybe a transition to an EPO ridge, fwiw(not much).

[frd]

23 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Best thing that I can say about the Euro Weeklies, it that they are the Euro Weeklies. The skill is far less than the 15th day of the one EPS run they are initialized on. That said, the new edition has a craptastic EPAC most of the way, with varying degrees of NA help to partially mitigate. Nothing surprising there, since we are already seeing that now- it is simply a continuation. Some hints of the AK trough relaxing way out there and maybe a transition to an EPO ridge, fwiw(not much).

Doesn't that fit the seasonal modeling ? A progressively worse Pac. Shoulder months may still hold the best outcomes but I believe December is a so so month for us based on our location and climo. 

However in terms on the HL and the NAO domain there are some interesting tidbits.

I would not hinge the hopes of winter on any SSWE. Just need to monitor and hope we get a two week period that delivers. It really is all we can hope for in this base state and Nina in general.  

And there really is something about a turn to warmer near the holidays, this will mark the 4 th year in a row most likely. Say what you want but it is uncanny.  

 

  

[Snowchaser]

It's a long shot... But we have something to watch around 15th

[frd]

9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Gfs op looks like it stretches then shreds the tpv this run.

Wonder if Isotherm or Benchmark have data on the target locations of the PV in years where there was an actual SSWE in a moderate to strong Nina. 

Only issue or issues would be the value of the data in this present base state ( West Pac ), not to mention the very warm North Pac waters.    

[PivotPoint]

6 hours ago, pasnownut said:

I can roll w/ this....would be nice to see some clippers. Snowbelts likely approve as well.  

Yea, unfortunately that’s not even a great look for LES. Too dry. But at least the Atlantic isn’t awful. I always feel like we have ways to score (usually small) if at least there isn’t a big WAR.

 

[frd]

Another positive we are seeing is AAM. As Matt noted below.

 

 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Best thing that I can say about the Euro Weeklies, it that they are the Euro Weeklies. The skill is far less than the 15th day of the one EPS run they are initialized on. That said, the new edition has a craptastic EPAC most of the way, with varying degrees of NA help to partially mitigate. Nothing surprising there, since we are already seeing that now- it is simply a continuation. Some hints of the AK trough relaxing way out there and maybe a transition to an EPO ridge, fwiw(not much).

It’s total garbage start to finish. Any slight pac improvement is offset by the fact we lose the Atlantic by then.  A WPO ridge or even a western epo ridge won’t do us any good if the NAO is positive. If the NAO is positive we would need the Epo ridge to be centered into western Canada and that is not happening in a healthy Nina.  
 

2017 and 2018 were extremely weak Nina’s (bordering on cold neutral at times).  Very different effect. Until/unless this current Nina weakens below -1 we probably are not getting any pac help and will need a combo of a slightly less god awful period (call it serviceable) and a LOT of Atlantic help. By that I don’t mean just some weak ridging but a full scale west based NAO block with stable 50/50. 
 

And yes I know how unlikely that is given recent history but don’t shoot the messenger. That’s what history of moderate to strong Nina’s say. You can barely even find minor events in moderate or stronger Nina’s without a lot of Atlantic help.  If it does weaken perhaps we get some epo help later in winter. 

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s total garbage start to finish. Any slight pac improvement is offset by the fact we lose the Atlantic by the.  A WPO ridge or even a western epo ridge won’t do is any good if the NAO is positive. If the NAO is positive we would need the Epo ridge to be centered into western Canada and that is not happening in a healthy Nina.  
 

2017 and 2018 were extremely weak Nina’s bordering (on cold neutral at times).  Very different effect. Until/unless this current Nina weakens below -1 we probably are not getting any pac help and will need a combo of a slightly less god awful period (call it serviceable) and a LOT of Atlantic help. By that I don’t mean just some weak ridging but a full scale west based NAO block with stable 50/50. 
 

And yes I know how unlikely that is given recent history but don’t shoot the messenger. That’s what history of moderate to strong Nina’s say. You can barely even find minor events in moderate or stronger Nina’s without a lot of Atlantic help.  If it does weaken perhaps we get some epo help later in winter. 

My WAG is our best chance for some legit winter will be mid Jan onward, and that is at least partially dependent on the Nina weakening and a transition to a -EPO. Not saying we don't see some brief help in the NA at times, but to expect a persistent -AO/NAO seems like fools gold for a multitude of reasons.