December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[mappy]

4 minutes ago, DTWXRISK said:

  well technically it  was  NOT  name calling


 it was  DESCRIBING   ( joke)

lololol i dont like ji either, but calling him a whiny bitch is in fact name calling. just do it in the damn banter thread. 

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

I knew this wouldn't last

What wouldn't last?

You mean model projections of -EPO with a deep trough in the east? It didn't last very long lol. A few runs. We will still get our mid month cold shot(probably dry) before the TPV retros into its happy place over AK. 

 

[aldie 22]

25 minutes ago, mappy said:

lololol i dont like ji either, but calling him a whiny bitch is in fact name calling. just do it in the damn banter thread. 

Lol I see what you did there

[CAPE]

46 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

I mean, 57 runs until we see this verify, but yeah not the best scenario to be heading into. Hope DT's ideas of nina's lessening impact come to fruition in late Jan/Feb to circumvent this. 

Maybe he can expand on this here, or in the winter discussion thread. Some of his general ideas were presented in that CWG article. I am wondering if the back half of winter might be more favorable in the WPO/EPO domains.

[WxUSAF]

Just now, CAPE said:

Maybe he can expand on this here, or in the winter discussion thread. Some of his general ideas were presented in that CWG article. I am wondering if the back half of winter might be more favorable in the WPO/EPO domains.

And there are model hints that we have a weak strat PV going into January and SSW chances. 

[psuhoffman]

38 minutes ago, CAPE said:

What wouldn't last?

You mean model projections of -EPO with a deep trough in the east? It didn't last very long lol. A few runs. We will still get our mid month cold shot(probably dry) before the TPV retros into its happy place over AK. 

 

If there is a silver lining...so far the atlantic side does not seem to be heading in a radically hostile direction.  Unlike last year when both the pacific and atlantic were just hot garbage.  I was never optimistic the pacific side would do us any favors.  But if we are going to have a chance to overcome that...we will need a good period of blocking on the Atlantic side.   We can get some opportunities as we head later into winter if the Atlantic side cooperates.  December...not so much.  That vortex over AK would be pretty hard to overcome even with everything else right until we get into January.  But...if the Atlantic side stays less hostile we might have some hope for windows of opportunity later in winter.  It's a low bar...but even that look there in the long range isn't quite as hopeless as last year when the pattern set in.  

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Maybe he can expand on this here, or in the winter discussion thread. Some of his general ideas were presented in that CWG article. I am wondering if the back half of winter might be more favorable in the WPO/EPO domains.

If the nina does fade that could help on the PAC side...but the base state even before nina was pretty awful anyways.  But as I hinted at above...if the atlantic side stays less hostile it will be able to compensate for the pacific more as we head later in winter.  The NAO influence kind of peaks in Feb/Mar.  If we are going to try to overcome a crap pac that is when to do it.   March 2018 is a good example of that type pattern.  Getting a similar type evolution but get it to set in say 2 weeks earlier and we could get a much better outcome.  

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

If there is a silver lining...so far the atlantic side does not seem to be heading in a radically hostile direction.  Unlike last year when both the pacific and atlantic were just hot garbage.  I was never optimistic the pacific side would do us any favors.  But if we are going to have a chance to overcome that...we will need a good period of blocking on the Atlantic side.   We can get some opportunities as we head later into winter if the Atlantic side cooperates.  December...not so much.  That vortex over AK would be pretty hard to overcome even with everything else right until we get into January.  But...if the Atlantic side stays less hostile we might have some hope for windows of opportunity later in winter.  It's a low bar...but even that look there in the long range isn't quite as hopeless as last year when the pattern set in.  

Oh I am not making any proclamations about the character of the winter as a whole. No one on the planet truly knows what is to come over the next few months. In the near term, if the means have the right idea, we may be heading towards a pretty hostile N/EPAC. There are also hints that the NA may be halfway decent at the same time- maybe a weakish east based negative NAO. The best outcome in that scenario (for mid/late Dec) would be avoiding above average temps in the east. Maybe we can hang close to "normal".

[DTWXRISK]

12Z  eps  IS     wetter  and a longer   duration   event

[DTWXRISK]

   before    it turns    mild ... there  is this '  threat"

[BristowWx]

For some reason it turns mild around Christmas.  Even the epic 2009 24-25 was mild if I remember right with rain.  

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

For some reason it turns mild around Christmas.  Even the epic 2009 24-25 was mild if I remember right with rain.  

It's generally mild through Christmas. We are the Mid Atlantic. We only wish we were Maine.

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

For some reason it turns mild around Christmas.  Even the epic 2009 24-25 was mild if I remember right with rain.  

The rain held off until Xmas night I think. I remember Xmas day at my Uncle’s near Harpers Ferry WV sledding down the hill in his side yard with the kids. It wasn’t cold but it wasn’t a warm slop fest either.  

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

The rain held off until Xmas night I think. I remember Xmas day at my Uncle’s near Harpers Ferry WV sledding down the hill in his side yard with the kids. It wasn’t cold but it wasn’t a warm slop fest either.  

Yeah there was still solid slush cover here, but the warmer air and snow eating fog had moved in, ahead of the rain.

[ryanconway63]

Anybody want to lock in hour 384 of the 18z GFS?  wow   lol

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The rain held off until Xmas night I think. I remember Xmas day at my Uncle’s near Harpers Ferry WV sledding down the hill in his side yard with the kids. It wasn’t cold but it wasn’t a warm slop fest either.  

Right.  I think it was in the 40s here.  And a white Xmas but that was because we had so much snow on the ground.  But it was slush fest by evening.  

[osfan24]

It's complete fantasy land, but I'll take the storm on the 20th of December on the 18z GFS and happily look at anything else we get the rest of the winter as icing on top.

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said:

Anybody want to lock in hour 384 of the 18z GFS?  wow   lol

BECS right there.  988mb. Wow

[NorthArlington101]

BECS right there.  988mb. Wow

starts as rain. next

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It's generally mild through Christmas. We are the Mid Atlantic. We only wish we were Maine.

True...but almost all the really good years have at least a snowy period somewhere in our area before New Years. Even 2015 I had a decent amount of snow here in November and early Dec before the torch set in. There are some super rare exceptions but 90% of the good years show themselves somewhat. Years where we get to Xmas with no snow anywhere in our region typically don’t end up being great years. But we kinda knew this wasn’t likely a great year already.  And we could still get some decent events even if we roll into January with nada. And we could still luck into something in the next few weeks. 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

True...but almost all the really good years have at least a snowy period somewhere in our area before New Years. Even 2015 I had a decent amount of snow here in November and early Dec before the torch set in. There are some super rare exceptions but 90% of the good years show themselves somewhat. Years where we get to Xmas with no snow anywhere in our region typically don’t end up being great years. But we kinda knew this wasn’t likely a great year already.  And we could still get some decent events even if we roll into January with nada. And we could still luck into something in the next few weeks. 

Just reminiscing. This seems like some wild ass fantasy now lol.

 

[JakkelWx]

It may seem like a wild fantasy, well, it is. For another 5 to 10 years at least. 2009-10 like years have a return period of every 20 years or so most likely. The least we can expect between now and 5 years is one like 2013-14 or 14-15.

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Just reminiscing. This seems like some wild ass fantasy now lol.

 

Nice pics. With the Nina we knew a good winter was almost off the table. The signs the NAM state might not be as hostile this year leaves me hopeful we will have opportunities and this might be a more typical not great but not god awful Nina either. 

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Nice pics. With the Nina we knew a good winter was almost off the table. The signs the NAM state might not be as hostile this year leaves me hopeful we will have opportunities and this might be a more typical not great but not god awful Nina either. 

Big snow winters during a Nina are extremely rare, but we can do ok at times. The last 2 were decent for most, and very good for the immediate coast with the big coastal scrapers in early January.

[osfan24]

57 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

It may seem like a wild fantasy, well, it is. For another 5 to 10 years at least. 2009-10 like years have a return period of every 20 years or so most likely. The least we can expect between now and 5 years is one like 2013-14 or 14-15.

Ha, I don't think we will ever see a 2009-2010 again. What I wouldn't do for one of those again.

[Chris78]

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

BECS right there.  988mb. Wow

Wow is right.  Probably 2 to 3 ft for the North West burbs by the time it's over.   

[BristowWx]

9 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Wow is right.  Probably 2 to 3 ft for the North West burbs by the time it's over.   

Got a good feeling about this one..wait that was gas...damn Taco Bell 

[psuhoffman]

Para GFS was pretty darn good from 14 days.  Was off on timing by about 18 hours...and was a bit too cold.  Obviously the too cold part is the big deal...but still not a bad job there.  

[snowfan]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Just reminiscing. This seems like some wild ass fantasy now lol.

 

Dude. Wtf. Keep the porn out of the thread.

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

75% of years it snows here  in Late November thru December...at least 1 or 2 light events ( 1-2 inchers). Its unlucky or unusual to not in my experience 

Here meaning your area?  That I would believe.