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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


yoda
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13 minutes ago, Ji said:

no one is talking about how the models have flipped to warm for the time that we thought they were going cold?

Thought I read here the CanSIPS latest release was a good one for cold in the East during December ? 

Remarkable changes once again. I imagine the next weather outcome reverse psychology flip would be a late month change to harsh cold and deep snow.    

I will be keeping a close watch on the AO for later in the month and the flip back,  later in time hopefully, to more West Coast ridging. 

Not sure what to make of the Ventrice post about ocean and atmospheric increased Nina coupling as we head deeper into December. Many players to watch and the biggest drivers may end up being a combination of a few.   

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13 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Nearing the 20th, right on cue to warmer. 

 

 

 

 

 

I'll say this Fred, the models were saying our area was going to get drenched tonight into tomorrow and now that seems unlikely so color me skeptical about any model saying anything 15+ days away. Could be right...probably wrong

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9 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I'll say this Fred, the models were saying our area was going to get drenched tonight into tomorrow and now that seems unlikely so color me skeptical about any model saying anything 15+ days away. Could be right...probably wrong

I would imagine changes in the East Coast and locally, versus changes over the entire Conus to a degree, and including a warmer forecast for Canada lends supports for warmer near the 20th. However, I could be wrong. Modeling  has been poor. I read maybe some  issues might be related to less air travel/reduced data for forecast platforms. Whether that is true, I am not sure.    

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33 minutes ago, Ji said:

no one is talking about how the models have flipped to warm for the time that we thought they were going cold? like what is this shite?

 

gfs-ens_T2ma_us_65.png

Always use the colder of the two.  Hasn't failed in the past.

EPS 336.png

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It’s the end of an op run, but the 12z gfs shows the sort of evolution we want to see. Cutter brings down an arctic airmass behind it and an active pattern provides a series of strong short waves moving into that cold air. That cutter also acts as a 50/50 low to reinforce the cold. Then hopefully we get a nice snow event before our annual 70F Christmas Eve when the pac puke arrives with Santa. 

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5 hours ago, Ji said:

no one is talking about how the models have flipped to warm for the time that we thought they were going cold? like what is this shite?

 

gfs-ens_T2ma_us_65.png

  thats  because the  EPS  is   vastly different  and  none of the   Teleconnection support this


 

global_pna_2020120400.png

global_epo_2020120400.png

global_ao_2020120400.png

global_nao_2020120400.png

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7 minutes ago, DTWXRISK said:

yeah but  not  as  funny ....    that which  does not kill me makes me funnier

Too bad. If you want to post in our threads, which is fine that you do, you need to reel in the name calling. Otherwise, your posts will keep disappearing. :) 

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24 minutes ago, mappy said:

Too bad. If you want to post in our threads, which is fine that you do, you need to reel in the name calling. Otherwise, your posts will keep disappearing. :) 

i mean he is wxrisk...stop expecting people to change. I am happy to have him back no matter how many names he calls me

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:

i mean he is wxrisk...stop expecting people to change. I am happy to have him back no matter how many names he calls me

he can call you names in the banter thread. i dont care, just not in this thread, or other discussion threads. why is that so hard??

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43 minutes ago, mappy said:

Too bad. If you want to post in our threads, which is fine that you do, you need to reel in the name calling. Otherwise, your posts will keep disappearing. :) 

  well technically it  was  NOT  name calling


 it was  DESCRIBING   ( joke)

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