CAPE Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 Just now, EastCoast NPZ said: I'm listening..... ..and it will probably be gone at 18z. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Didnt realize there's a Dec thread . oops. meant to lock it when i unpinned it earlier. sorry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 16 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: GGEM similar to Gfs with a paste bomb for far interior Yeah, that's a hell of a storm on both models. Problem is, we're on the wrong side. Plenty of time left...and...150 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 22 minutes ago, mappy said: oops. meant to lock it when i unpinned it earlier. sorry! Slacker. I did it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 Just now, stormtracker said: Yeah, that's a hell of a storm on both models. Problem is, we're on the wrong side. Plenty of time left...and...150 hours Extreme + PNA on the way it appears. Euro supports it as well. Question is the eventual evolution in early to mid December. Inland snow then a more significant event somewhere in the East. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 that western ridge by 240 is no joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, that's a hell of a storm on both models. Problem is, we're on the wrong side. Plenty of time left...and...150 hours Airmass ahead of that storm is garbage. For there to be any chance, we need that northern stream low to bring it in ahead of time. I’m skeptical. Hope for wraparound snow showers. Chances go up the farther we get into December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, that's a hell of a storm on both models. Problem is, we're on the wrong side. Plenty of time left...and...150 hours Ha, that seems to be our problem all too often! But nice to see something interesting out there at least. Good to see you Stormtracker, hope all is well! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 A further east track would do wonders. That track to me still looks suspect. It’s not a common one in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 I know it’s an OP at range but that is some nice extension of the ridging out west into the epo and AO domains. Some actual cold air around the holidays perhaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: A further east track would do wonders. That track to me still looks suspect. It’s not a common one in the winter. GEFS has it further east. Marginal airmass outside of elevated areas though. Probably not likely next week will produce for the majority of the MA. Its going to take some time, assuming the AK trough does weaken/retro, to get some legit cold air on our doorstep. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 21 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Slacker. I did it. awww doing your job finally! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 5 minutes ago, mappy said: awww doing your job finally! That's the job of a lowly moderator. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 5 minutes ago, mappy said: awww doing your job finally! He shows up for 1/4 of the year and acts like he owns the place 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 24 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Airmass ahead of that storm is garbage. For there to be any chance, we need that northern stream low to bring it in ahead of time. I’m skeptical. Hope for wraparound snow showers. Chances go up the farther we get into December. Yeah, I doubt we score next week. When we starting needing A+B and then C, we're already out. But it's interesting nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 Just now, stormtracker said: That's the job of a lowly moderator. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 9 minutes ago, CAPE said: GEFS has it further east. Marginal airmass outside of elevated areas though. Probably not likely next week will produce for the majority of the MA. Its going to take some time, assuming the AK trough does weaken/retro, to get some legit cold air on our doorstep. The precise axis of the PNA ridge is key and its a very subtle feature as you can see if you toggle back through the last 3-5 days of GEFS runs. We want as much N-S orientation as possible. Either way today’s GEFS has us BN for the first 7-10 days of December. Hopefully it’s not a dry cold. Regarding the AK trough, interestingly the extended GEFS has it west of AK near Kamchatka or NE Siberia all of December. That’s a pretty good location for us as it should encourage ridging over western Canada. Doubly so if a piece of the TPV breaks off and heads for eastern Canada as it shows right at the end around Xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, I doubt we score next week. When we starting needing A+B and then C, we're already out. But it's interesting nonetheless. Fun active pattern for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, I doubt we score next week. When we starting needing A+B and then C, we're already out. But it's interesting nonetheless. A perfect track bowling ball with cold air aloft and strong lift might get it done. The proverbial 'creator of its own cold air!' storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Fun active pattern for sure. Compared to this time last year, we're looking better. What I'm looking for from this upcoming event are a couple of thins: 1.) What model(s) handle this best. It could give us an idea as to what guidance can be trusted more this winter. 2.) Is this going to be a model fantasy, where nothing really happens. 3.) Is this going to be a kick-the-can event where it winds up being delayed, etc. 4.) Will a fluke pattern at the start of the season be enough to actually get a workable storm for some folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 41 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: A further east track would do wonders. That track to me still looks suspect. It’s not a common one in the winter. I mean, atmospheric memory will save us....right?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: The precise axis of the PNA ridge is key and its a very subtle feature as you can see if you toggle back through the last 3-5 days of GEFS runs. We want as much N-S orientation as possible. Either way today’s GEFS has us BN for the first 7-10 days of December. Hopefully it’s not a dry cold. Regarding the AK trough, interestingly the extended GEFS has it west of AK near Kamchatka or NE Siberia all of December. That’s a pretty good location for us as it should encourage ridging over western Canada. Doubly so if a piece of the TPV breaks off and heads for eastern Canada as it shows right at the end around Xmas. Looks good at the end of the GEFS run today. Nice amplitude too- poking up over AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 1 hour ago, EastCoast NPZ said: I'm listening..... GFS/GGEM and a couple of the 00z EPS have the first accumulating snow for you next week. Would be no more than an advisory level event, but it's snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 Stealing something from phillywx... Since 2000 there have been 13 measurable snow events in the first 10 days of December at PHL. Let’s assume that’s about the same for us. So you’re looking at a 6.5% chance on any given day. But roughly even money or a bit better on measurable at in the first 10 days when adding that up. Given the advertised pattern, it’s hard for me to see that we’re in a worse than climo position. Hopefully that holds through the next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: Looks good at the end of the GEFS run today. Nice amplitude too- poking up over AK. It does. GEFS seems to be can-kicking on that orientation a bit, but also making the situation before that less hostile overall. I’d eagerly sign up to take my chances with that pattern anytime DJF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 39 minutes ago, H2O said: He shows up for 1/4 of the year and acts like he owns the place 1/3. Get it right. Speaking of owning, I'll be owning a bottle of JWB pretty soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Stealing something from phillywx... Since 2000 there have been 13 measurable snow events in the first 10 days of December at PHL. Let’s assume that’s about the same for us. So you’re looking at a 6.5% chance on any given day. But roughly even money or a bit better on measurable at in the first 10 days when adding that up. Given the advertised pattern, it’s hard for me to see that we’re in a worse than climo position. Hopefully that holds through the next 2 weeks. Wonder what the resulting winters were in DCA/BWI/PHL when there was measurable snow in the first 10 calendar days of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Wonder what the resulting winters were in DCA/BWI/PHL when there was measurable snow in the first 10 calendar days of December. 2002-03 worked out well 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 Dec 4-5 is the first period to keep an eye on. GFS and GGEM are weak and sheared today while euro is wrapped up inland. Need the Nov 30/Dec 1 storm to give us a good air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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