WinterWxLuvr Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Faster motion for this perfect track rainstorm gets it out of the way a bit and allows this Monday possibility room to amplify and maybe turn the corner a bit. 2013-14 storms show up under D5 rule in effect? We sure know how storms can disappear under D5 so my as well reacquaint ourselves with how they can show up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 12 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB GEFS 18z....most of this for DMV is the mid December threat. P27 and call it a winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownpourDave Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: P27 and call it a winter I really do not think you are serious are you? 12-15 inches in December and nothing the rest of the way? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 8 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: I really do not think you are serious are you? 12-15 inches in December and nothing the rest of the way? Eh..just get our snow climo to about 60-70% with one event and the rest is gravy...sun angle is perfect in Dec 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 34 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Faster motion for this perfect track rainstorm gets it out of the way a bit and allows this Monday possibility room to amplify and maybe turn the corner a bit. 2013-14 storms show up under D5 rule in effect? Yeah @losetoa6 mentioned that in the short range thread. I’m okay with a quick hitting heavy rainer if it gives chance for something early next week. The light dusting I got yesterday has me jonesing for more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 18Z WB EPS Hug P39.....2 % chance for 1-3 early next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 59 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB GEFS 18z....most of this for DMV is the mid December threat. I'd like to place an order for p27 please.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 23 minutes ago, Weather Will said: 18Z WB EPS Hug P39.....2 % chance for 1-3 early next week... Abot the best we're gonna do without a high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 hour ago, SnowLover22 said: I really do not think you are serious are you? 12-15 inches in December and nothing the rest of the way? Repeat of last year it is then! Lol Give me a foot of snow during the holiday season and I’ll take whatever else comes as icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 If it comes to fruition (and it won’t), let’s call it the P27 storm. Back to my triple IPA now... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 That would allow almost everyone here to be happy I would think... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 7 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: That would allow almost everyone here to be happy I would think... Lol Ji will be complaining about radar and the back edge before first flakes and how it would have been 30” if it wasn’t moving so fast. If it’s wet snow Mdecoy will be whining it was only 4” on his road because he measures in the middle of the street. If it’s dry Eskimo will be telling us how half of it sublimated by noon the next day. Do I need to continue. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 5 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: That would allow almost everyone here to be happy I would think... Not @Ji ever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 How much would it take for everyone to have a meh rest of the year if Monday came to fruition and over performed? Be honest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 I think I would be happy to see it snow just so I know it actually can snow at my house. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Just now, Buddy1987 said: How much would it take for everyone to have a meh rest of the year if Monday came to fruition and over performed? Be honest Snow is snow. I’ll want it regardless of amount 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: P27 and call it a winter Ha! I was just about to write the same exact thing! (ETA: Well, almost...wouldn't really want to "call it a winter" after that in December. But I know what you mean!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Ha! I was just about to write the same exact thing! Most haven’t had a snowstorm in almost 2 years and they’re gonna be picky lol If a hot air balloon went overhead flown by a pilot with a bad case of dandruff I’d call it a win at this point. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 I don't want to make too much of this situation for Monday in this area and I'm not prepared to say that I am barking at this point but the Monday event does have the potential to be a bit of a surprise This image shows two 500 mb maps. The map on the left is the 12z Thursday European model valid at 36 hours or Friday night. The map on the right the upper air map from the same 12z Thursday operational European model VALID evening of DEC 7. IMO what is particularly striking about it is that if you compare the two will notice that the upper air patterns are s almost identical. But of course there are some key differences. Notice that on the Friday night we have no closed 500 low -- known as the 50/ 50 LOW in southeast Canada but we will have one according to the European model Monday night. Also note that on Friday night we have two short waves -one in the Northern Jet Stream over Michigan and the southern one in Tennessee and Georgia which is about to go negative. And that of course is going to trigger the coastal LOW and its rapid intensification. On Monday night DEC 7 we have a southern stream s/w which is further to the south which is still tilted slightly positive. The northern shortwave is closed off and this is located in Virginia and Pennsylvania. The end result is that because we have the closed 500 low in southeast Canada these two short waves are going to phase further to the South and east ….which means that the coastal LOW is going to form further to the South and probably off the coast. This is a timing problem. If the southern s/w were to come in more neutral or negatively tilted over Georgia then you would end up with a much stronger Coastal LOW and the potential for a surprise snowstorm in portions of Virginia and Maryland on Monday December 7.These two images show only light snow Monday morning in much of Virginia and temperatures are clearly cold enough. The 18z Euro is somewhat more aggressive with this burst of snow and this is supported by the 18z EPS. I think we will have to wait until after the Saturday system is gone before we will have a really good idea about what if anything is going to happen in the lower Middle Atlantic states on December 7th. Right now I think there is pretty good chance for light snow event lasting most of the morning / midday for a good portion of the Dominion and perhaps portions of Southern Maryland and Delaware. Maybe it will ll just be snow showers. Maybe it will end up being something a little more 17 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 hour ago, mappy said: Yeah @losetoa6 mentioned that in the short range thread. I’m okay with a quick hitting heavy rainer if it gives chance for something early next week. The light dusting I got yesterday has me jonesing for more I hear you on that! Would be nice to not trash the entire weekend with more rain, rain, rain (not like we need more terribly much!)...have that move out quickly and potentially allow some chance of snow early next week (even if small), would be great about now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Thanks DT. That was a good no spin zone kind of read....first flakes would be a nice outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Most haven’t had a snowstorm in almost 2 years and they’re gonna be picky lol If a hot air balloon went overhead flown by a pilot with a bad case of dandruff I’d call it a win at this point. Yup...January 2019 is what I assume you're referring to from "almost 2 years ago". And anything would beat the 1.5" slush that I got last year for the "largest" event (and about 2" total for the season, woo-hoo!). ETA: Oh, and I think some people forget just how bad it was in December 2015, when we had a +11 degree departure from normal for the month. Just let that sink in for a moment. Eleven. Degrees. Above. Normal. When it's unpleasantly muggy and damp on Christmas Eve, you know December sucks. Thank God that kind of departure didn't happen in July! Of course, a few weeks later we had a storm for the ages, but anyhow... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Last year st this time we had come out of cold but useless November and the writing was on the wall that after 12/10 looked miserable. It was even worse than that so it’s great to have snow potential discussions moving forward 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 12/9/2018 last time I had something decent early around here 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 NAM at 84 caveats apply...quicker scoot of this weekends storm. Phasing a little too late for everything to come together but it’s not far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, LP08 said: NAM at 84 caveats apply...quicker scoot of this weekends storm. Phasing a little too late for everything to come together but it’s not far off. It’s too stretched out. Need more of the energy consolidated back in IN/KY. It’s not far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s too stretched out. Need more of the energy consolidated back in IN/KY. It’s not far off. Factoring in 3 shortwaves to phase is likely going to reek havoc on the models. Would like to have a hit tonight or 6z on one global though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 31 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Last year st this time we had come out of cold but useless November and the writing was on the wall that after 12/10 looked miserable. It was even worse than that so it’s great to have snow potential discussions moving forward Yeah ya gotta hope that maybe it's an opposite effect: mild November colder/snowier December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Factoring in 3 shortwaves to phase is likely going to reek haywire on the models. Would like to have a hit tonight or 6z on one global though. Especially that model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 22 minutes ago, LP08 said: NAM at 84 caveats apply...quicker scoot of this weekends storm. Phasing a little too late for everything to come together but it’s not far off. Gotta watch that western ridge. If it starts to breakdown/roll-over too soon this'll get pushed east and it's a NC/VA special. Some of the 18z GEFS members were showing some NC and VA snow solutions. But it's certainly close for watching for Northern VA and MD folk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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