frd Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The mean was odd so I dug a bit. It’s awful because there is universal agreement on the cutter New Years. After that the majority camp is dry. The precip in the day 11-15 period is from a minority camp that doesn’t retrograde the blocking and so has another cutter. The majority camp does have a signature for something late in the period. Low pressure development in the southern plains with high pressure signature over the northeast and blocking. My guess is if ty block is real we start to see that mean improve soon. But i know it’s hard to wait but the timeline I just laid out isn’t unusual for when a blocking regime sets in. Progression could be cuter, cuter. Mid Atlantic snowstorm then clipper, then classic Miller A third week of Jan. It fits evolution of NAO block retro and then Pac improvement based on forcing moving into more favorable area / +EAMT events and then a rise off of a deep -NAO sort of similar to a HA event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Well, lots can change in a week or more I suppose Yeah, it already has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: He made a bad forecast. It’s not the end of the world. We have a pretty good pattern coming up it looks like. Let’s move on. Every post I make is not directed at you nor requesting a response from you. You ego needs reigning in. In this particular case I was referencing the myriad of forecasters here who have come and mostly gone who always go for the big one. David is but one and he and I go back to the very beginning of internet weather. We have met and have some same friends. He is The Best discusser of weather and what it takes to get a significant mid Atlantic snowstorm that I have encountered. His maps are interesting and easy to read and he is concise . He is not as good at predicting if one is going to occur. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Lots of encouraging stuff today but we need something to track asap. It feels like we are driving down the field on every drive but we end up settling for 52 yard field goal attempts 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 14 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Every post I make is not directed at you nor requesting a response from you. You ego needs reigning in. No your posts are made to the board and ANYONE can respond. That’s how a public discussion board works. Anyone is free to reply to what others say. You don’t have to approve or invite anything. You didn’t take my advice last time you pulled this crap. If you don’t like being criticized try not to make as many bad posts! Don’t get mad at me just because your a crap poster. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Honest question, what kind of "in-house" model could possibly be of use in serious forecasting? The big boys all run on huge government supercomputers. How could a homebrew model even have a chance. I'm not trying to criticize, just honestly curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ji said: 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Lots of encouraging stuff today but we need something to track asap. It feels like we are driving down the field on every drive but we end up settling for 52 yard field goal attempts I hope something specific comes in range soon. It probably will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I hope something specific comes in range soon. It probably will. I wouldn’t give up on the NYE event yet. All 3 globals showed a much better high in advance of it today. Just need a piece of it to break off and come east. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 45 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The mean was odd so I dug a bit. It’s awful because there is universal agreement on the cutter New Years. After that the majority camp is dry. The precip in the day 11-15 period is from a minority camp that doesn’t retrograde the blocking and so has another cutter. The majority camp does have a signature for something late in the period. Low pressure development in the southern plains with high pressure signature over the northeast and blocking. My guess is if ty block is real we start to see that mean improve soon. But i know it’s hard to wait but the timeline I just laid out isn’t unusual for when a blocking regime sets in. Yeah I saw it was dry. I am just playin' a bit. Realistically we are probably 10 days away from a legit snow chance. Probably the 3rd to the 5th of Jan. Subject to change ofc. But that's how it looks right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 14 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Honest question, what kind of "in-house" model could possibly be of use in serious forecasting? The big boys all run on huge government supercomputers. How could a homebrew model even have a chance. I'm not trying to criticize, just honestly curious. You have a point but I don’t know what organization backs him and sometimes there are low tech innovative ways to look at things like weighted analog models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I wouldn’t give up on the NYE event yet. All 3 globals showed a much better high in advance of it today. Just need a piece of it to break off and come east. Good point. If that system ejects in pieces that’s still a possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Looks a lot like my display pic. Dec 2009. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I have a tough time accepting 100% cutter and all rain for NY when its 8 days away . I know what the guidance is showing as you do but there's just no way I'm looking past day 8+ quite yet . Plus I'm wondering if a CAD setup possibly doesn't show itself soon in that window. Great posts today BTW. Ninjd again You’re right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 21 minutes ago, Ji said: 28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Lots of encouraging stuff today but we need something to track asap. It feels like we are driving down the field on every drive but we end up settling for 52 yard field goal attempts That Hopkins misses every time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 32 minutes ago, Ji said: 40 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Lots of encouraging stuff today but we need something to track asap. It feels like we are driving down the field on every drive but we end up settling for 52 yard field goal attempts 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Too bad we’re way more Billy Cundiff than Justin Tucker when it comes to hitting on long shot snow chances. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Too bad we’re way more Billy Cundiff than Justin Tucker when it comes to hitting on long shot snow chances. That name is never to be mentioned. I had nightmares for a couple days when billy cundiff missed that FG. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 17 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: That name is never to be mentioned. I had nightmares for a couple days when billy cundiff missed that FG. I didn’t sleep for like 60 straight hours 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: I didn’t sleep for like 60 straight hours It was hideous. I try not to hate, but man that was tough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 You Baltimore kids are cute talking about kicker woes in big situations 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: You Baltimore kids are cute talking about kicker woes in big situations Always good not to forget what came before. Or some shit like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Always good not to forget what came before. Or some shit like that. Man that Blair Walsh miss was from like 2 ft to beat Seattle in the playoffs, then the Gary Anderson miss against the Falcons to go to the superbowl….gah!!! I hate kickers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 45 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: That name is never to be mentioned. I had nightmares for a couple days when billy cundiff missed that FG. 27 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I didn’t sleep for like 60 straight hours 25 minutes ago, CAPE said: It was hideous. I try not to hate, but man that was tough. Ya know, the only thing that took away the sting of that loss was the Superbowl we won the next year. Much more memorable story...so I can't be upset at what happened the year before anymore--because I daresay that helped set things up the greatness that would follow the next year! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Overall probability is reassuring that the Greenland blocking regime is indeed real. @SimonLeeWx Tropospheric-led but then subsequently likely reinforced by the weakened stratospheric vortex, the GEFS 35-day shows an unusually strong signal for the Arctic High regime (Greenland blocking) to dominate the North American regime space over the coming few weeks. 11:12 AM · Dec 23, 2020·Twitter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
howrdcounty snow Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just now, frd said: Overall probability is reassuring that the Greenland blocking regime is indeed real. @SimonLeeWx Tropospheric-led but then subsequently likely reinforced by the weakened stratospheric vortex, the GEFS 35-day shows an unusually strong signal for the Arctic High regime (Greenland blocking) to dominate the North American regime space over the coming few weeks. 11:12 AM · Dec 23, 2020·Twitter you can always wait and see if it happens, the reliance on guidance gets a bit overwhelming, don't you think sir?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 7 x more likely. Good odds. @SimonLeeWx Replying to @SimonLeeWx The Arctic High regime is ~7x more likely to occur if the lower-strat vortex is weak than strong (https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085592…) - and that's certainly consistent with this forecast. Suggests that the accuracy of the stratospheric forecast may be important here for the regime forecast. Wintertime North American Weather Regimes and the Arctic Stratospheric Polar Vortex agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just now, howrdcounty snow said: you can always wait and see if it happens, the reliance on guidance gets a bit overwhelming, don't you think sir?? This is a long range thread ? Gathering unique, useful data and weighing it for long range outcomes is the fun part of long range forecasting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
howrdcounty snow Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, frd said: This is a long range thread ? Gathering unique, useful data and weighing it for long range outcomes is the fun part of long range forecasting. yes partially agree but considering the last storm, the long range proved in accurrate, so in my view LR forecasting doesn't always pan out, yes that's weather forecasting, but thee are other factors to consider which I won't touch. TYVM for your responses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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