December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah but this isn't the same thing as the last few years...the good pattern is practically right on top of us...not 15 days out in fantasy land. This time patience actually is warranted for the pattern to develop...

I would argue we have been in the regime for a while already and are just going through a typical relax/reload period now.  That happens.  It's normal.  But we already saw the AO tank and the NAO go negative.  The spike up was very temporary and then it immediately starts to tank again.  The base state of the AO right now is clearly negative.  And the guidance is suggesting this next drop will be more significant then the last.  I would also argue that the period we just came through repeated in January/February would likely have better results for DC/Baltimore.  But IMO we have been in the pattern for a while...this isn't a matter of waiting for some long range fantasy.  We are just waiting for the details within the general pattern to line up to get a specific threat.  

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Yep ...The biggest if I recall.  Also most recently 5 or 6 years ago on Xmas eve around 3 inches 

It snowed about 3” here in Christmas Eve 2012. Then had the Chill storm 2 days later

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Yep ...The biggest if I recall.  Also most recently 5 or 6 years ago on Xmas eve around 3 inches 

I think the 3" one you're thinking about was 2012.  

[aldie 22]

To be fair to Dave these are his exact words THREE DAYS AGO....

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Well, lots can change in a week or more I suppose

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Well, lots can change in a week or more I suppose

He gets a little loose with his words sometimes and then people jump on them hard as they interpret them and then it becomes a big old mess. Me personally I see that he said potential and said those particular upper air maps were what he was saying looked great. I guess I can see how some would get all hyped up about it but it didn't really do anything for me. I suppose those poor souls to our SE who haven't seen any snow yet are butthurt because DT tricked them about getting feet of snow. Poor guys

[osfan24]

Just now, leesburg 04 said:

He gets a little loose with his words sometimes and then people jump on them hard as they interpret them and then it becomes a big old mess. Me personally I see that he said potential and said those particular upper air maps were what he was saying looked great. I guess I can see how some would get all hyped up about it but it didn't really do anything for me. I suppose those poor souls to our SE who haven't seen any snow yet are butthurt because DT tricked them about getting feet of snow. Poor guys

The problem isn't most of us on this board who know how he can be and also have some decent weather knowledge. He "woofs" over clouds in the sky, so I don't buy into it. The problem is his legions of followers who are oblivious when it comes to weather and read that stuff and eat it up. It's irresponsible.

[WEATHER53]

If anyone says, for example, on 12/18 that  extreme cold will spread over the mid  atlantic by 12/28 and then on 12/28 it’s pushed to 1/7 and on 1/7 to 1/15 then first we  are in deep do do and 2nd if it does come on 1/15 that is Not a delayed but not denied verified forecast but rather a Busted forecast.  Timeliness is a key element of a confirmed forecast 

 

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

The problem isn't most of us on this board who know how he can be and also have some decent weather knowledge. He "woofs" over clouds in the sky, so I don't buy into it. The problem is his legions of followers who are oblivious when it comes to weather and read that stuff and eat it up. It's irresponsible.

Irresponsible if people got hurt...other than their feelings...but I fail to see it being irresponsible when it's just speculation. I'm fairly certain he doesn't say those types of things to his paying customers...otherwise it's just free information on the internet. Heck Ji has like 60k followers on FB and all he does is hype digital snow...I don't think he is irresponsible I just think he's a bozo lol

[aldie 22]

I'm assuming there was a huge blizzard in December 1965 because I was born in September 66 

[osfan24]

7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Irresponsible if people got hurt...other than their feelings...but I fail to see it being irresponsible when it's just speculation. I'm fairly certain he doesn't say those types of things to his paying customers...otherwise it's just free information on the internet. Heck Ji has like 60k followers on FB and all he does is hype digital snow...I don't think he is irresponsible I just think he's a bozo lol

Ji is the best.

It's fine until there is a real storm, people tune him out because of the constant hype, and then it does cause issues. People lose trust in forecasters when they are constantly wrong, and then they get ignored.

[psuhoffman]

Hope this doesn't ruin anyones day....but seeing 2002 in those analogs made me think of this.  2002 is a cautionary tale of how much luck plays in all this.  2002 wasn't likely to be good given that about 50% of the winter pattern was garbage (from Jan 20 on).  But we actually had a pretty good pattern for a solid month before that...and we just wasted it.  We had a dry period in Dec...a storm was suppressed around xmas, then a big storm in early January was just a bit too far north...PA got a foot of snow, then a good overrunning setup really failed to meet potential when the wave sheared out...and we got a minor snowfall.  Then the pattern broke down and the rest of winter was garbage.  But we should have done better early that winter then we did IMO.  If you have a good pattern for a solid month you should avoid a god awful winter like last year when the pattern was mostly garbage start to finish.  It's always possible we get a good pattern...and just waste it.  

This was probably the height of the blocking in 2002...and this lead to the storm that hit south of us.  

This was the mean from Dec 15 to Jan 15.  We should have got more out of this month IMO.  

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

If anyone says, for example, on 12/18 that  extreme cold will spread over the mid  atlantic by 12/28 and then on 12/28 it’s pushed to 1/7 and on 1/7 to 1/15 then first we  are in deep do do and 2nd if it does come on 1/15 that is Not a delayed but not denied verified forecast but rather a Busted forecast.  Timeliness is a key element of a confirmed forecast 

 

you are correct...but I think we are discussing our overall snow prospects and the pattern evolution towards something favorable for that... not verifying DT's actual forecast which was a bust. 

[psuhoffman]

The flip side to 2002 was 2000 when we had a good pattern for about 10 days all winter (and frankly it wasn't great it was just good) and maximized it.  We don't hit during that 10 day period a couple times and the whole rest of that winter was a no hope god awful pattern.   A repeat of that would not likely work out as well.  In the long run it events out...times we get lucky in a not so good pattern or maximize a small window...and times we waste a good pattern.  In that regards you would think we are due for some luck here.  

[Ji]

the euro hates christmas and new years and everything in between....such a 2020 model run

[LP08]

I’m confident in January producing something.  This look is pretty damn nice all things considered.

[psuhoffman]

Look at the trend in the blocking for early Jan the last 24 hours on the EPS 

 

[Heisy]

I mean it’s pretty clear this day 8-9 is a cutter. Nothings changed though well have increased blocking after and we’ll see what happens. 
 

I got no issues with DT. Why take it so personally? Do you pay him for forecasts?Go look at the maps he posted. The night he made those tweets it did seem like there was major potential. The pac just didn’t cooperate. Nothing wrong with what he posted. My only gripe is I’m not sure if he walked it back yet and explained what went wrong. 
 

 

[WEATHER53]

Heard all these excuses before about pacific  did not cooperate and got the upper air right but surface  did not cooperate....not cooperate.....not  cooperate...

DC area does not cooperate well in general. It should be a basis for a forecaster around here. Storms which have not even reached the west coast yet should Nevet  be a basis for a profoundly cold/snowy forecast for DC 7-10 days down the road 

[CAPE]

Surprised WB Will hasn't posted this yet. 

[Ji]

Surprised WB Will hasn't posted this yet. 

Why would he post about a 10% chance of an inch in prime climate

[poolz1]

29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Look at the trend in the blocking for early Jan the last 24 hours on the EPS 

 

Is it possible that the NAO block bullies/expands west toward AK and improves the PAC?   Seems the EPS and GEFS increase heights on the west coast and Ak toward the end of their runs due to an expanding NA block....not necessarily due to the Aleutian trough retreating SW. 

[RIC_WX]

42 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Hope this doesn't ruin anyones day....but seeing 2002 in those analogs made me think of this.  2002 is a cautionary tale of how much luck plays in all this.  2002 wasn't likely to be good given that about 50% of the winter pattern was garbage (from Jan 20 on).  But we actually had a pretty good pattern for a solid month before that...and we just wasted it.  We had a dry period in Dec...a storm was suppressed around xmas, then a big storm in early January was just a bit too far north...PA got a foot of snow, then a good overrunning setup really failed to meet potential when the wave sheared out...and we got a minor snowfall.  Then the pattern broke down and the rest of winter was garbage.  But we should have done better early that winter then we did IMO.  If you have a good pattern for a solid month you should avoid a god awful winter like last year when the pattern was mostly garbage start to finish.  It's always possible we get a good pattern...and just waste it.  

This was probably the height of the blocking in 2002...and this lead to the storm that hit south of us.  

This was the mean from Dec 15 to Jan 15.  We should have got more out of this month IMO.  

That "storm that missed south of us" hit Richmond between Christmas and New Year, and is the fastest melting snowfall I can remember.  It was 80% gone the day it fell and 100% disappeared by lunchtime the next day.  It melted faster than it could be plowed off the street.  This was a thread the needle setup and unquestionably lucky.

I think more importantly, the summer 2001-2002 period is amongst the driest on record in the mid atlantic, especially VA.  This isn't even a little bit comparable to now.  Clearly the setup is different even if some teleconnections are similar globally, and assuming all else was equal we would have 3x-4x more chances to score because 1"+ QPF events happen weekly now and were every other month at best during the 01-02 period.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Surprised WB Will hasn't posted this yet. 
 

Why would he post about a 10% chance of an inch in prime climate

Because he always posts those silly maps.

And yeah this one really sucks! Wind you up?

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Heard all these excuses before about pacific  did not cooperate and got the upper air right but surface  did not cooperate....not cooperate.....not  cooperate...

DC area does not cooperate well in general. It should be a basis for a forecaster around here. Storms which have not even reached the west coast yet should Nevet  be a basis for a profoundly cold/snowy forecast for DC 7-10 days down the road 

He made a bad forecast.  It’s not the end of the world.  We have a pretty good pattern coming up it looks like. Let’s move on. 

[40westwx]

19 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Surprised WB Will hasn't posted this yet. 

 

That map looked awful.  Basically it says that there really arent any chances of snow in the short, medium or long range...

But we no this is not the case... I would actually be surprised if we DON'T get  snow storm in the next few weeks.

[WinterWxLuvr]

21 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Surprised WB Will hasn't posted this yet. 

Geez. Evidently the Euro doesn’t see the great pattern yet. Don’t think we ever had a map look that bad even last year

[aldie 22]

Minneapolis is the place to be the next few days

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Because he always posts those silly maps.

And yeah this one really sucks! Wind you up?

The mean was odd so I dug a bit. It’s awful because there is universal agreement on the cutter New Years. After that the majority camp is dry. The precip in the day 11-15 period is from a minority camp that doesn’t retrograde the blocking and so has another cutter. The majority camp does have a signature for something late in the period. Low pressure development in the southern plains with high pressure signature  over the northeast and blocking.  My guess is if ty block is real we start to see that mean improve soon. But i know it’s hard to wait but the timeline I just laid out isn’t unusual for when a blocking regime sets in. 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, 40westwx said:

That map looked awful.  Basically it says that there really arent any chances of snow in the short, medium or long range...

But we no this is not the case... I would actually be surprised if we DON'T get  snow storm in the next few weeks.

 

3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Geez. Evidently the Euro doesn’t see the great pattern yet. Don’t think we ever had a map look that bad even last year

Those means only go to 15 days. The blocking doesn’t even get into the western NAO domain (where it does us any good) until around day 10. But then we have to wait for a system AFTER the cutter that helps get the block to retrograde with its wave break around day 10.  I would have liked to see something in the day 12-15 start to show but I’ll give it another few days before getting frustrated.