LP08 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 I’m confident in January producing something. This look is pretty damn nice all things considered. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Look at the trend in the blocking for early Jan the last 24 hours on the EPS 12 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 I mean it’s pretty clear this day 8-9 is a cutter. Nothings changed though well have increased blocking after and we’ll see what happens. I got no issues with DT. Why take it so personally? Do you pay him for forecasts?Go look at the maps he posted. The night he made those tweets it did seem like there was major potential. The pac just didn’t cooperate. Nothing wrong with what he posted. My only gripe is I’m not sure if he walked it back yet and explained what went wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Heard all these excuses before about pacific did not cooperate and got the upper air right but surface did not cooperate....not cooperate.....not cooperate... DC area does not cooperate well in general. It should be a basis for a forecaster around here. Storms which have not even reached the west coast yet should Nevet be a basis for a profoundly cold/snowy forecast for DC 7-10 days down the road Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Surprised WB Will hasn't posted this yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Surprised WB Will hasn't posted this yet. Why would he post about a 10% chance of an inch in prime climate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Look at the trend in the blocking for early Jan the last 24 hours on the EPS Is it possible that the NAO block bullies/expands west toward AK and improves the PAC? Seems the EPS and GEFS increase heights on the west coast and Ak toward the end of their runs due to an expanding NA block....not necessarily due to the Aleutian trough retreating SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 42 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Hope this doesn't ruin anyones day....but seeing 2002 in those analogs made me think of this. 2002 is a cautionary tale of how much luck plays in all this. 2002 wasn't likely to be good given that about 50% of the winter pattern was garbage (from Jan 20 on). But we actually had a pretty good pattern for a solid month before that...and we just wasted it. We had a dry period in Dec...a storm was suppressed around xmas, then a big storm in early January was just a bit too far north...PA got a foot of snow, then a good overrunning setup really failed to meet potential when the wave sheared out...and we got a minor snowfall. Then the pattern broke down and the rest of winter was garbage. But we should have done better early that winter then we did IMO. If you have a good pattern for a solid month you should avoid a god awful winter like last year when the pattern was mostly garbage start to finish. It's always possible we get a good pattern...and just waste it. This was probably the height of the blocking in 2002...and this lead to the storm that hit south of us. This was the mean from Dec 15 to Jan 15. We should have got more out of this month IMO. That "storm that missed south of us" hit Richmond between Christmas and New Year, and is the fastest melting snowfall I can remember. It was 80% gone the day it fell and 100% disappeared by lunchtime the next day. It melted faster than it could be plowed off the street. This was a thread the needle setup and unquestionably lucky. I think more importantly, the summer 2001-2002 period is amongst the driest on record in the mid atlantic, especially VA. This isn't even a little bit comparable to now. Clearly the setup is different even if some teleconnections are similar globally, and assuming all else was equal we would have 3x-4x more chances to score because 1"+ QPF events happen weekly now and were every other month at best during the 01-02 period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: Surprised WB Will hasn't posted this yet. Why would he post about a 10% chance of an inch in prime climate Because he always posts those silly maps. And yeah this one really sucks! Wind you up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 15 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Heard all these excuses before about pacific did not cooperate and got the upper air right but surface did not cooperate....not cooperate.....not cooperate... DC area does not cooperate well in general. It should be a basis for a forecaster around here. Storms which have not even reached the west coast yet should Nevet be a basis for a profoundly cold/snowy forecast for DC 7-10 days down the road He made a bad forecast. It’s not the end of the world. We have a pretty good pattern coming up it looks like. Let’s move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 19 minutes ago, CAPE said: Surprised WB Will hasn't posted this yet. That map looked awful. Basically it says that there really arent any chances of snow in the short, medium or long range... But we no this is not the case... I would actually be surprised if we DON'T get snow storm in the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 21 minutes ago, CAPE said: Surprised WB Will hasn't posted this yet. Geez. Evidently the Euro doesn’t see the great pattern yet. Don’t think we ever had a map look that bad even last year 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Minneapolis is the place to be the next few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 13 minutes ago, CAPE said: Because he always posts those silly maps. And yeah this one really sucks! Wind you up? The mean was odd so I dug a bit. It’s awful because there is universal agreement on the cutter New Years. After that the majority camp is dry. The precip in the day 11-15 period is from a minority camp that doesn’t retrograde the blocking and so has another cutter. The majority camp does have a signature for something late in the period. Low pressure development in the southern plains with high pressure signature over the northeast and blocking. My guess is if ty block is real we start to see that mean improve soon. But i know it’s hard to wait but the timeline I just laid out isn’t unusual for when a blocking regime sets in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, 40westwx said: That map looked awful. Basically it says that there really arent any chances of snow in the short, medium or long range... But we no this is not the case... I would actually be surprised if we DON'T get snow storm in the next few weeks. 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Geez. Evidently the Euro doesn’t see the great pattern yet. Don’t think we ever had a map look that bad even last year Those means only go to 15 days. The blocking doesn’t even get into the western NAO domain (where it does us any good) until around day 10. But then we have to wait for a system AFTER the cutter that helps get the block to retrograde with its wave break around day 10. I would have liked to see something in the day 12-15 start to show but I’ll give it another few days before getting frustrated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The mean was odd so I dug a bit. It’s awful because there is universal agreement on the cutter New Years. After that the majority camp is dry. The precip in the day 11-15 period is from a minority camp that doesn’t retrograde the blocking and so has another cutter. The majority camp does have a signature for something late in the period. Low pressure development in the southern plains with high pressure signature over the northeast and blocking. My guess is if ty block is real we start to see that mean improve soon. But i know it’s hard to wait but the timeline I just laid out isn’t unusual for when a blocking regime sets in. Progression could be cuter, cuter. Mid Atlantic snowstorm then clipper, then classic Miller A third week of Jan. It fits evolution of NAO block retro and then Pac improvement based on forcing moving into more favorable area / +EAMT events and then a rise off of a deep -NAO sort of similar to a HA event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Well, lots can change in a week or more I suppose Yeah, it already has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: He made a bad forecast. It’s not the end of the world. We have a pretty good pattern coming up it looks like. Let’s move on. Every post I make is not directed at you nor requesting a response from you. You ego needs reigning in. In this particular case I was referencing the myriad of forecasters here who have come and mostly gone who always go for the big one. David is but one and he and I go back to the very beginning of internet weather. We have met and have some same friends. He is The Best discusser of weather and what it takes to get a significant mid Atlantic snowstorm that I have encountered. His maps are interesting and easy to read and he is concise . He is not as good at predicting if one is going to occur. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Lots of encouraging stuff today but we need something to track asap. It feels like we are driving down the field on every drive but we end up settling for 52 yard field goal attempts 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 14 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Every post I make is not directed at you nor requesting a response from you. You ego needs reigning in. No your posts are made to the board and ANYONE can respond. That’s how a public discussion board works. Anyone is free to reply to what others say. You don’t have to approve or invite anything. You didn’t take my advice last time you pulled this crap. If you don’t like being criticized try not to make as many bad posts! Don’t get mad at me just because your a crap poster. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Honest question, what kind of "in-house" model could possibly be of use in serious forecasting? The big boys all run on huge government supercomputers. How could a homebrew model even have a chance. I'm not trying to criticize, just honestly curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ji said: 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Lots of encouraging stuff today but we need something to track asap. It feels like we are driving down the field on every drive but we end up settling for 52 yard field goal attempts I hope something specific comes in range soon. It probably will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I hope something specific comes in range soon. It probably will. I wouldn’t give up on the NYE event yet. All 3 globals showed a much better high in advance of it today. Just need a piece of it to break off and come east. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 45 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The mean was odd so I dug a bit. It’s awful because there is universal agreement on the cutter New Years. After that the majority camp is dry. The precip in the day 11-15 period is from a minority camp that doesn’t retrograde the blocking and so has another cutter. The majority camp does have a signature for something late in the period. Low pressure development in the southern plains with high pressure signature over the northeast and blocking. My guess is if ty block is real we start to see that mean improve soon. But i know it’s hard to wait but the timeline I just laid out isn’t unusual for when a blocking regime sets in. Yeah I saw it was dry. I am just playin' a bit. Realistically we are probably 10 days away from a legit snow chance. Probably the 3rd to the 5th of Jan. Subject to change ofc. But that's how it looks right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 14 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Honest question, what kind of "in-house" model could possibly be of use in serious forecasting? The big boys all run on huge government supercomputers. How could a homebrew model even have a chance. I'm not trying to criticize, just honestly curious. You have a point but I don’t know what organization backs him and sometimes there are low tech innovative ways to look at things like weighted analog models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I wouldn’t give up on the NYE event yet. All 3 globals showed a much better high in advance of it today. Just need a piece of it to break off and come east. Good point. If that system ejects in pieces that’s still a possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Looks a lot like my display pic. Dec 2009. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I have a tough time accepting 100% cutter and all rain for NY when its 8 days away . I know what the guidance is showing as you do but there's just no way I'm looking past day 8+ quite yet . Plus I'm wondering if a CAD setup possibly doesn't show itself soon in that window. Great posts today BTW. Ninjd again You’re right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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