psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 11 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Best pattern since 1996! He jumped the gun...got excited probably. I do think the pattern he saw is coming...he was just a week wearly. I am claiming Jan 5-15th as our window. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
howrdcounty snow Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, Climate175 said: There is digital snow in some places N and W this run long range lol. isn't that the same storm we got last time?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: The block's going to retrograde west folks and we'll get our good pacific, lol. Relax. The good stuff won't come until the 1st week of January or after. There has been a tendency for Inland Runners and Coastal huggers but the Dynamics of the block have to fully mature, the best chances most likely after the 7th of January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 I dont get the complaints. The GFS has a really nice storm for early January. And it has been keying on that time frame for days. The pattern is fine. Maybe not a blockbuster pattern with the PAC being modelled the way it is. But it is a good upcoming pattern for some snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: I dont get the complaints. The GFS has a really nice storm for early January. And it has been keying on that time frame for days. The pattern is fine. Maybe not a blockbuster pattern with the PAC being modelled the way it is. But it is a good upcoming pattern for some snow. Impatience... I think some expected something to happen between Xmas and New Years 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: He jumped the gun...got excited probably. I do think the pattern he saw is coming...he was just a week wearly. I am claiming Jan 5-15th as our window. He probably did jump the gun, but the pattern that he spoke about may very well develop in time. The Nao and the Arctic oscillation point to the possibility of winter storm threats in the East at some point in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, howrdcounty snow said: isn't that the same storm we got last time?? It kinda looks similar, but you and I know it's not going to look exactly like that 13 days from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, howrdcounty snow said: isn't that the same storm we got last time?? some similarities...the mid and upper levels open up and allows WAA to go wild and the storm lifts a little too far north. But its a minor adjustment from a big hit. But the real takeaway is we have the exact same pac pattern there...the difference is the blocking has moved into the western NAO domain and matured and so that next wave from the same starting point cannot cut like the 2 before it. This is all typical. We do better once blocking is established or is relaxing...not as its developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 The GFS actually has decent timing with the little wave on Christmas morning as well. Snow TV for a lot of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, frd said: He probably did jump the gun, but the pattern that he spoke about may very well develop in time. The Nao and the Arctic oscillation point to the possibility of winter storm threats in the East at some point in January. If we get the west based NAO block on all guidance in January and NOTHING comes of it...then I will join Ji in trolling the bleep out of this winter. But I do not think that happens. If that blocking is real we will be tracking threats soon. I know its hard to wait. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
howrdcounty snow Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: some similarities...the mid and upper levels open up and allows WAA to go wild and the storm lifts a little too far north. But its a minor adjustment from a big hit. But the real takeaway is we have the exact same pac pattern there...the difference is the blocking has moved into the western NAO domain and matured and so that next wave from the same starting point cannot cut like the 2 before it. This is all typical. We do better once blocking is established or is relaxing...not as its developing. agreed, just making an observation, and know it may change in time. I have no expectations this early as I know the snow history in central md, I have lived here for over 60 years, I'm very realistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 37 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Some hints of a CAD situation though... If we could get some energy to run out ahead or get some overrunning ahead of that warm front, that could be a way to get some frozen precip. GGEM does the CAD thing too for the New Years storm. Actually has some ZR verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If we get the west based NAO block on all guidance in January and NOTHING comes of it...then I will join Ji in trolling the bleep out of this winter. But I do not think that happens. If that blocking is real we will be tracking threats soon. I know its hard to wait. The waitin’ is the hardest part - Tom Petty 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: To illustrate the blocking is just starting to get into a position to do any good here...but look at the ridge already in the northeast. It’s not in time to save the New Years threat if that energy comes across in one piece and amplifies to our west. but look at a few days later... This look should offset the pac. Actually in this look I want the pac shooting energy in otherwise that’s a dry look likely. It would be very difficult to get a cutter in this look once the blocking gets established in the western NAO domain. Would be hard to get enough ridging in that flow. This is a really helpful post, thanks. First week of January has the best NAM look in years. 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 GEFS looks good after the New Years cutter. Better block location and just enough ridge in western Canada and the SW. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: GEFS looks good after the New Years cutter. Better block location and just enough ridge in western Canada and the SW. Hasn't the GEFS out-schooled the EPS, or is it my imagination? Thought a couple mets commented on that last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Damn !!!! I like!!! Eric Webb @webberweather This is the composite of Jan-Febs that had late Dec-Jan SSWEs & whose tropospheric pattern in the 3 weeks leading up to the SSWE bears some semblance to this yr (+WPO/+EPO/-NAO/-AO/+SCAND). Very NINO heavy composite as you'd probably expect given the deep, precursor Aleutian Low 11:42 AM · Dec 23, 2020 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 I can't believe we have to wait all the way until early January for some snow.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: I can't believe we have to wait all the way until early January for some snow.... Except for the flizzard tomorrow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
howrdcounty snow Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I can't believe we have to wait all the way until early January for some snow.... in I believe 1963 we got 6 in of snow on xmas day., I don't remember any other xmas since then we got that much. I was 13 at the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, frd said: Hasn't the GEFS out-schooled the EPS, or is it my imagination? Thought a couple mets commented on that last week. In terms of long term patterns they have been each holding their own. Gefs won in Early Dec when EPS was going torch mid dec. EPS has continually tried to shift the WPO trough east too much. Gefs has been handling that better. This version of the Gefs has been much better IMO but I can’t say without doing a more objective controlled study of its “schooling” the EPS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
howrdcounty snow Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: I remember 4 or 5 white Xmas eve or Xmas days . The most probably 4-5" . interesting I don't remember those, tyvm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 hour ago, osfan24 said: Best pattern since 1996! Who said this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
howrdcounty snow Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said: Who said this? maybe Joe bastardi, our someone here lol!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 hour ago, frd said: There has been a tendency for Inland Runners and Coastal huggers but the Dynamics of the block have to fully mature, the best chances most likely after the 7th of January. I can tell you for historically sure that “delayed but not denied” bites us in the ass Far more often then not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 6 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Who said this? DT said it and was hyping the 12/28 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 23 minutes ago, frd said: Damn !!!! I like!!! Eric Webb @webberweather This is the composite of Jan-Febs that had late Dec-Jan SSWEs & whose tropospheric pattern in the 3 weeks leading up to the SSWE bears some semblance to this yr (+WPO/+EPO/-NAO/-AO/+SCAND). Very NINO heavy composite as you'd probably expect given the deep, precursor Aleutian Low 11:42 AM · Dec 23, 2020 careful there are some really good analogs in there...but some complete duds also. 2002 and 2013 are in that group!!! Obviously we would all take 1958 or 1987 again... most of the others were some version of mediocre but given our expectations coming we probably should be happy with mediocre. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 19 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I remember 4 or 5 white Xmas eve or Xmas days . The most probably 4-5" . I know from coop data Manchester got about 7" on Xmas day 2002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 12 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: I can tell you for historically sure that “delayed but not denied” bites us in the ass Far more often then not. Yeah but this isn't the same thing as the last few years...the good pattern is practically right on top of us...not 15 days out in fantasy land. This time patience actually is warranted for the pattern to develop... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 13 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: I can tell you for historically sure that “delayed but not denied” bites us in the ass Far more often then not. if the blocking gets delayed yes...when we start to see the pattern get pushed back in time it often is a sign the guidance is not handling the progression correctly. But in this case the issue is some saw the blocking go up in the long range and got excited and jumped on the first waves to come along as the blocking was in its infancy stages. That isnt our MO. We tend to score snow on the backside of blocking regimes once the blocking has fully matured or is relaxing. The blocking itself isn't getting delayed...just the idea that the threats to come from a blocking regime are likely to be later not sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now