frd Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: GEFS looks good after the New Years cutter. Better block location and just enough ridge in western Canada and the SW. Hasn't the GEFS out-schooled the EPS, or is it my imagination? Thought a couple mets commented on that last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Damn !!!! I like!!! Eric Webb @webberweather This is the composite of Jan-Febs that had late Dec-Jan SSWEs & whose tropospheric pattern in the 3 weeks leading up to the SSWE bears some semblance to this yr (+WPO/+EPO/-NAO/-AO/+SCAND). Very NINO heavy composite as you'd probably expect given the deep, precursor Aleutian Low 11:42 AM · Dec 23, 2020 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 I can't believe we have to wait all the way until early January for some snow.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: I can't believe we have to wait all the way until early January for some snow.... Except for the flizzard tomorrow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
howrdcounty snow Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I can't believe we have to wait all the way until early January for some snow.... in I believe 1963 we got 6 in of snow on xmas day., I don't remember any other xmas since then we got that much. I was 13 at the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, frd said: Hasn't the GEFS out-schooled the EPS, or is it my imagination? Thought a couple mets commented on that last week. In terms of long term patterns they have been each holding their own. Gefs won in Early Dec when EPS was going torch mid dec. EPS has continually tried to shift the WPO trough east too much. Gefs has been handling that better. This version of the Gefs has been much better IMO but I can’t say without doing a more objective controlled study of its “schooling” the EPS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
howrdcounty snow Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: I remember 4 or 5 white Xmas eve or Xmas days . The most probably 4-5" . interesting I don't remember those, tyvm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 hour ago, osfan24 said: Best pattern since 1996! Who said this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
howrdcounty snow Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said: Who said this? maybe Joe bastardi, our someone here lol!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 hour ago, frd said: There has been a tendency for Inland Runners and Coastal huggers but the Dynamics of the block have to fully mature, the best chances most likely after the 7th of January. I can tell you for historically sure that “delayed but not denied” bites us in the ass Far more often then not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 6 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Who said this? DT said it and was hyping the 12/28 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 23 minutes ago, frd said: Damn !!!! I like!!! Eric Webb @webberweather This is the composite of Jan-Febs that had late Dec-Jan SSWEs & whose tropospheric pattern in the 3 weeks leading up to the SSWE bears some semblance to this yr (+WPO/+EPO/-NAO/-AO/+SCAND). Very NINO heavy composite as you'd probably expect given the deep, precursor Aleutian Low 11:42 AM · Dec 23, 2020 careful there are some really good analogs in there...but some complete duds also. 2002 and 2013 are in that group!!! Obviously we would all take 1958 or 1987 again... most of the others were some version of mediocre but given our expectations coming we probably should be happy with mediocre. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 19 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I remember 4 or 5 white Xmas eve or Xmas days . The most probably 4-5" . I know from coop data Manchester got about 7" on Xmas day 2002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 12 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: I can tell you for historically sure that “delayed but not denied” bites us in the ass Far more often then not. Yeah but this isn't the same thing as the last few years...the good pattern is practically right on top of us...not 15 days out in fantasy land. This time patience actually is warranted for the pattern to develop... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 13 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: I can tell you for historically sure that “delayed but not denied” bites us in the ass Far more often then not. if the blocking gets delayed yes...when we start to see the pattern get pushed back in time it often is a sign the guidance is not handling the progression correctly. But in this case the issue is some saw the blocking go up in the long range and got excited and jumped on the first waves to come along as the blocking was in its infancy stages. That isnt our MO. We tend to score snow on the backside of blocking regimes once the blocking has fully matured or is relaxing. The blocking itself isn't getting delayed...just the idea that the threats to come from a blocking regime are likely to be later not sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah but this isn't the same thing as the last few years...the good pattern is practically right on top of us...not 15 days out in fantasy land. This time patience actually is warranted for the pattern to develop... I would argue we have been in the regime for a while already and are just going through a typical relax/reload period now. That happens. It's normal. But we already saw the AO tank and the NAO go negative. The spike up was very temporary and then it immediately starts to tank again. The base state of the AO right now is clearly negative. And the guidance is suggesting this next drop will be more significant then the last. I would also argue that the period we just came through repeated in January/February would likely have better results for DC/Baltimore. But IMO we have been in the pattern for a while...this isn't a matter of waiting for some long range fantasy. We are just waiting for the details within the general pattern to line up to get a specific threat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Yep ...The biggest if I recall. Also most recently 5 or 6 years ago on Xmas eve around 3 inches It snowed about 3” here in Christmas Eve 2012. Then had the Chill storm 2 days later 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Yep ...The biggest if I recall. Also most recently 5 or 6 years ago on Xmas eve around 3 inches I think the 3" one you're thinking about was 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 To be fair to Dave these are his exact words THREE DAYS AGO.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Well, lots can change in a week or more I suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Well, lots can change in a week or more I suppose He gets a little loose with his words sometimes and then people jump on them hard as they interpret them and then it becomes a big old mess. Me personally I see that he said potential and said those particular upper air maps were what he was saying looked great. I guess I can see how some would get all hyped up about it but it didn't really do anything for me. I suppose those poor souls to our SE who haven't seen any snow yet are butthurt because DT tricked them about getting feet of snow. Poor guys 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just now, leesburg 04 said: He gets a little loose with his words sometimes and then people jump on them hard as they interpret them and then it becomes a big old mess. Me personally I see that he said potential and said those particular upper air maps were what he was saying looked great. I guess I can see how some would get all hyped up about it but it didn't really do anything for me. I suppose those poor souls to our SE who haven't seen any snow yet are butthurt because DT tricked them about getting feet of snow. Poor guys The problem isn't most of us on this board who know how he can be and also have some decent weather knowledge. He "woofs" over clouds in the sky, so I don't buy into it. The problem is his legions of followers who are oblivious when it comes to weather and read that stuff and eat it up. It's irresponsible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 If anyone says, for example, on 12/18 that extreme cold will spread over the mid atlantic by 12/28 and then on 12/28 it’s pushed to 1/7 and on 1/7 to 1/15 then first we are in deep do do and 2nd if it does come on 1/15 that is Not a delayed but not denied verified forecast but rather a Busted forecast. Timeliness is a key element of a confirmed forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: The problem isn't most of us on this board who know how he can be and also have some decent weather knowledge. He "woofs" over clouds in the sky, so I don't buy into it. The problem is his legions of followers who are oblivious when it comes to weather and read that stuff and eat it up. It's irresponsible. Irresponsible if people got hurt...other than their feelings...but I fail to see it being irresponsible when it's just speculation. I'm fairly certain he doesn't say those types of things to his paying customers...otherwise it's just free information on the internet. Heck Ji has like 60k followers on FB and all he does is hype digital snow...I don't think he is irresponsible I just think he's a bozo lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 I'm assuming there was a huge blizzard in December 1965 because I was born in September 66 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Irresponsible if people got hurt...other than their feelings...but I fail to see it being irresponsible when it's just speculation. I'm fairly certain he doesn't say those types of things to his paying customers...otherwise it's just free information on the internet. Heck Ji has like 60k followers on FB and all he does is hype digital snow...I don't think he is irresponsible I just think he's a bozo lol Ji is the best. It's fine until there is a real storm, people tune him out because of the constant hype, and then it does cause issues. People lose trust in forecasters when they are constantly wrong, and then they get ignored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Hope this doesn't ruin anyones day....but seeing 2002 in those analogs made me think of this. 2002 is a cautionary tale of how much luck plays in all this. 2002 wasn't likely to be good given that about 50% of the winter pattern was garbage (from Jan 20 on). But we actually had a pretty good pattern for a solid month before that...and we just wasted it. We had a dry period in Dec...a storm was suppressed around xmas, then a big storm in early January was just a bit too far north...PA got a foot of snow, then a good overrunning setup really failed to meet potential when the wave sheared out...and we got a minor snowfall. Then the pattern broke down and the rest of winter was garbage. But we should have done better early that winter then we did IMO. If you have a good pattern for a solid month you should avoid a god awful winter like last year when the pattern was mostly garbage start to finish. It's always possible we get a good pattern...and just waste it. This was probably the height of the blocking in 2002...and this lead to the storm that hit south of us. This was the mean from Dec 15 to Jan 15. We should have got more out of this month IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 9 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: If anyone says, for example, on 12/18 that extreme cold will spread over the mid atlantic by 12/28 and then on 12/28 it’s pushed to 1/7 and on 1/7 to 1/15 then first we are in deep do do and 2nd if it does come on 1/15 that is Not a delayed but not denied verified forecast but rather a Busted forecast. Timeliness is a key element of a confirmed forecast you are correct...but I think we are discussing our overall snow prospects and the pattern evolution towards something favorable for that... not verifying DT's actual forecast which was a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 The flip side to 2002 was 2000 when we had a good pattern for about 10 days all winter (and frankly it wasn't great it was just good) and maximized it. We don't hit during that 10 day period a couple times and the whole rest of that winter was a no hope god awful pattern. A repeat of that would not likely work out as well. In the long run it events out...times we get lucky in a not so good pattern or maximize a small window...and times we waste a good pattern. In that regards you would think we are due for some luck here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 the euro hates christmas and new years and everything in between....such a 2020 model run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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