MillvilleWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 I wanted to post where there will be higher viewer traffic in the sub-forum. This is a really awesome site created by a few researchers and developers for NWS. . 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 HM was wondering when was the last January that had above average snow in the NE, MA, MW and the UK at the same time. I'm calling January a blockbuster now...10" for everybody!!! 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 NYE/New Years day looks quite similar to Christmas Eve/Day on the 12z GFS. Huge cutter, driving rainstorm on NYE, front pushes through and gets cold on New Years Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
howrdcounty snow Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, nj2va said: NYE/New Years day looks quite similar to Christmas Eve/Day on the 12z GFS. Huge cutter, driving rainstorm on NYE, front pushes through and gets cold on New Years Day. how can that happen with the huge block?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just now, nj2va said: NYE/New Years day looks quite similar to Christmas Eve/Day on the 12z GFS. Huge cutter, driving rainstorm on NYE, front pushes through and gets cold on New Years Day. Awesome. More warm /wet followed by wind/dry/cold...in that order of intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: NYE/New Years day looks quite similar to Christmas Eve/Day on the 12z GFS. Huge cutter, driving rainstorm on NYE, front pushes through and gets cold on New Years Day. Some hints of a CAD situation though... If we could get some energy to run out ahead or get some overrunning ahead of that warm front, that could be a way to get some frozen precip. 1 minute ago, howrdcounty snow said: how can that happen with the huge block?? Crappy Pac pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, howrdcounty snow said: how can that happen with the huge block?? I think @CAPE said it well when he said be patient and let the pattern develop. Things may look different and hopefully better early next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
howrdcounty snow Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said: I think @CAPE said it well when he said be patient and let the pattern develop. Things may look different and hopefully better early next week. tyvm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Some hints of a CAD situation though... If we could get some energy to run out ahead or get some overrunning ahead of that warm front, that could be a way to get some frozen precip. Crappy Pac pattern. Yeah, I was being a bit cheeky with my post since its sort of lol-worthy seeing it again exactly a week later. If we could either break out some of that energy so it’s not so robust out west (could keep it weak enough so its not a giant cutter) or get a piece of it to run ahead like you said, we could score some frozen especially with that 1039 H over Ontario. That H seems new this run unless I wasn’t paying close enough attention - and the post Christmas cutter is acting as a pseudo 50/50 for that H to slow down. Bears watching for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Some hints of a CAD situation though... If we could get some energy to run out ahead or get some overrunning ahead of that warm front, that could be a way to get some frozen precip. Crappy Pac pattern. Best pattern since 1996! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Some hints of a CAD situation though... If we could get some energy to run out ahead or get some overrunning ahead of that warm front, that could be a way to get some frozen precip. Crappy Pac pattern. The pac isnt good so we need the blocking to be perfect. I think were jumping the gun also...saw the block go up and jumped on the first waves coming across. But the block is initially just an extension of the WAR but with each wave break it retrogrades more and more into a classic NAO block. The problem is at 150 as the trough is amplifying out west the wave break from the storm after xmas is just starting to get the ridging to retro further west...but there is already ridging in the east at this point. And the blocking is frankly still SE of ideal ATT. It's the wave break from the new years system that retrogrades the block into the perfect position that could then be expected to offset the pacific. A WAR that extends into the eastern NAO domain isn't going to cut it. We need a west based rex block to offset the pac. Luckily the guidance shows that...but not until after the new years system. I do think there is a chance that trends colder into some kind of mix event though if we can get the energy to eject in pieces. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The pac isnt good so we need the blocking to be perfect. I think were jumping the gun also...saw the block go up and jumped on the first waves coming across. But the block is initially just an extension of the WAR but with each wave break it retrogrades more and more into a classic NAO block. The problem is at 150 as the trough is amplifying out west the wave break from the storm after xmas is just starting to get the ridging to retro further west...but there is already ridging in the east at this point. And the blocking is frankly still SE of ideal ATT. It's the wave break from the new years system that retrogrades the block into the perfect position that could then be expected to offset the pacific. A WAR that extends into the eastern NAO domain isn't going to cut it. We need a west based rex block to offset the pac. Luckily the guidance shows that...but not until after the new years system. I do think there is a chance that trends colder into some kind of mix event though if we can get the energy to eject in pieces. Thanks. It’s amazing how many things need to align for us to snow even in late December-early January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 The block's going to retrograde west folks and we'll get our good pacific, lol. Relax. The good stuff won't come until the 1st week of January or after. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 There is digital snow in some places N and W this run long range lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 To illustrate the blocking is just starting to get into a position to do any good here...but look at the ridge already in the northeast. It’s not in time to save the New Years threat if that energy comes across in one piece and amplifies to our west. but look at a few days later... This look should offset the pac. Actually in this look I want the pac shooting energy in otherwise that’s a dry look likely. It would be very difficult to get a cutter in this look once the blocking gets established in the western NAO domain. Would be hard to get enough ridging in that flow. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 11 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Best pattern since 1996! He jumped the gun...got excited probably. I do think the pattern he saw is coming...he was just a week wearly. I am claiming Jan 5-15th as our window. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
howrdcounty snow Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, Climate175 said: There is digital snow in some places N and W this run long range lol. isn't that the same storm we got last time?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: The block's going to retrograde west folks and we'll get our good pacific, lol. Relax. The good stuff won't come until the 1st week of January or after. There has been a tendency for Inland Runners and Coastal huggers but the Dynamics of the block have to fully mature, the best chances most likely after the 7th of January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 I dont get the complaints. The GFS has a really nice storm for early January. And it has been keying on that time frame for days. The pattern is fine. Maybe not a blockbuster pattern with the PAC being modelled the way it is. But it is a good upcoming pattern for some snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: I dont get the complaints. The GFS has a really nice storm for early January. And it has been keying on that time frame for days. The pattern is fine. Maybe not a blockbuster pattern with the PAC being modelled the way it is. But it is a good upcoming pattern for some snow. Impatience... I think some expected something to happen between Xmas and New Years 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: He jumped the gun...got excited probably. I do think the pattern he saw is coming...he was just a week wearly. I am claiming Jan 5-15th as our window. He probably did jump the gun, but the pattern that he spoke about may very well develop in time. The Nao and the Arctic oscillation point to the possibility of winter storm threats in the East at some point in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, howrdcounty snow said: isn't that the same storm we got last time?? It kinda looks similar, but you and I know it's not going to look exactly like that 13 days from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, howrdcounty snow said: isn't that the same storm we got last time?? some similarities...the mid and upper levels open up and allows WAA to go wild and the storm lifts a little too far north. But its a minor adjustment from a big hit. But the real takeaway is we have the exact same pac pattern there...the difference is the blocking has moved into the western NAO domain and matured and so that next wave from the same starting point cannot cut like the 2 before it. This is all typical. We do better once blocking is established or is relaxing...not as its developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 The GFS actually has decent timing with the little wave on Christmas morning as well. Snow TV for a lot of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, frd said: He probably did jump the gun, but the pattern that he spoke about may very well develop in time. The Nao and the Arctic oscillation point to the possibility of winter storm threats in the East at some point in January. If we get the west based NAO block on all guidance in January and NOTHING comes of it...then I will join Ji in trolling the bleep out of this winter. But I do not think that happens. If that blocking is real we will be tracking threats soon. I know its hard to wait. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
howrdcounty snow Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: some similarities...the mid and upper levels open up and allows WAA to go wild and the storm lifts a little too far north. But its a minor adjustment from a big hit. But the real takeaway is we have the exact same pac pattern there...the difference is the blocking has moved into the western NAO domain and matured and so that next wave from the same starting point cannot cut like the 2 before it. This is all typical. We do better once blocking is established or is relaxing...not as its developing. agreed, just making an observation, and know it may change in time. I have no expectations this early as I know the snow history in central md, I have lived here for over 60 years, I'm very realistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 37 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Some hints of a CAD situation though... If we could get some energy to run out ahead or get some overrunning ahead of that warm front, that could be a way to get some frozen precip. GGEM does the CAD thing too for the New Years storm. Actually has some ZR verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If we get the west based NAO block on all guidance in January and NOTHING comes of it...then I will join Ji in trolling the bleep out of this winter. But I do not think that happens. If that blocking is real we will be tracking threats soon. I know its hard to wait. The waitin’ is the hardest part - Tom Petty 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: To illustrate the blocking is just starting to get into a position to do any good here...but look at the ridge already in the northeast. It’s not in time to save the New Years threat if that energy comes across in one piece and amplifies to our west. but look at a few days later... This look should offset the pac. Actually in this look I want the pac shooting energy in otherwise that’s a dry look likely. It would be very difficult to get a cutter in this look once the blocking gets established in the western NAO domain. Would be hard to get enough ridging in that flow. This is a really helpful post, thanks. First week of January has the best NAM look in years. 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 GEFS looks good after the New Years cutter. Better block location and just enough ridge in western Canada and the SW. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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