WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 9 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GEFS does not look as negative as the last several pages of this forum... Could we narrow that down a bit? How about the same maps through Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 11 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GEFS does not look as negative as the last several pages of this forum... nice climo map - could have made that forecast in July and have an equal chance of being correct. 5 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 hours ago, CAPE said: @Ji Not a cutter. Fringed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 39 minutes ago, CAPE said: And that looks pretty shit for here. OMG, spit my sugar smacks out. At least your odds are 10 % , I am at zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 45 minutes ago, CAPE said: Have the last several pages been negative? Hadn't noticed that. And that looks pretty shit for here. I bet you see more snow this year than Miami....quit yer bitchin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Fringed Right where we want it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 46 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Could we narrow that down a bit? How about the same maps through Friday? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 DT's first call, FWIW for western peeps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 3 hours ago, CAPE said: Don't panic Ji!! I will take the 30 to 50 mile northward tick on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 3 hours ago, CAPE said: Don't panic Ji!! Ya know, I'm really starting to think that these snow maps are bad for the snow psyche...seriously (especially this far out). I think they can, subconsciously, create a false sense of reality. Some see 10 inches on the pretty snow map, and maybe there's a subconscious thought/feeling of "hey I actually HAVE 10 inches!), then you see 3 on the next run, and it's "oh no, it got taken away". It just makes level headed analysis on any threat or pattern more difficult, imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Ya know, I'm really starting to think that these snow maps are bad for the snow psyche...seriously (especially this far out). I think they can, subconsciously, create a false sense of reality. Some see 10 inches on the pretty snow map, and maybe there's a subconscious thought/feeling of "hey I actually HAVE 10 inches!), then you see 3 on the next run, and it's "oh no, it got taken away". It just makes level headed analysis on any threat or pattern more difficult, imo The first step is admitting you have a problem. Imma head out. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 20 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Ya know, I'm really starting to think that these snow maps are bad for the snow psyche...seriously (especially this far out). I think they can, subconsciously, create a false sense of reality. Some see 10 inches on the pretty snow map, and maybe there's a subconscious thought/feeling of "hey I actually HAVE 10 inches!), then you see 3 on the next run, and it's "oh no, it got taken away". It just makes level headed analysis on any threat or pattern more difficult, imo Haha basically explains my entire time here during that late Dec 2017 pattern that DT kept woofing about. I remember posting all of the ensemble snow means and freaking out about how they were 6"+ 10 days out. In reality? I think I got 0.8" from that pattern. In all honestly I'm not sure how you guys managed to put up with 14 year old me :p but nowadays I reserve my snowfall map postings to just 4 a day way healthier 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Icon at 180 was just about to digital us but the run ended. Typical 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 8 minutes ago, Ji said: Icon at 180 was just about to digital us but the run ended. Typical Would it have been iconic? 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Would it have been iconic? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Would it have been iconic? is anything ever Iconic for Ji? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Between the blocking and the post-Christmas GL cutter acting as a wall off the east coast, the New Years storm is stuck over the Midwest with nowhere to go it seems. ETA: on the 00z GFS. Eventually cuts to the UP of Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Maybe we need a GL bomb to shake things up a little.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: You sure about that? BRUH WOTY Post nominee right here. Huh? Wait, why? I wasn't saying that I thought that way...(at least not anymore)...but hypothesized about the psychological effect... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Probably belongs in the digital h5 thread....guess we just need a +5 sig west based block to offset the pac. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Real shame we can’t get more PAC cooperation. We wait years for the Atlantic to get it together and this is what we get. Still think January has potential through at least the first half. When was the last time we even had PAC cooperation? Lol Seems like it's been forever! Is it just less cooperative in general than it used to be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 22 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Real shame we can’t get more PAC cooperation. We wait years for the Atlantic to get it together and this is what we get. Still think January has potential through at least the first half. My thoughts exactly....We (myself included) always expect threats to line up exactly with good/great looks but that is rarely the case it seems. I still think the potential is high as we enter Jan....frustrating being patient but I still think this pattern needs to mature. Cant create a logjam in the ATL overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Seen worse 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Finally starting to see the temp anomalies we need showing up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Not hating the mean precip distribution during that same period either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownpourDave Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Just out of curiosity, how did you decide on specifically the 1/21/16, 12/08/09, 2/12/83 events for your composite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 12 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: Just out of curiosity, how did you decide on specifically the 1/21/16, 12/08/09, 2/12/83 events for your composite. I think he is trying to show how similar the advertised look is to the patterns for some of our biggest storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 @Ji Just sayin maybe we should let this play out. The blocking is just establishing itself next week. With each wave break it retrogrades more into a canonical blocking regime. Both the TPV and SPV look to get obliterated soon. We typically score after the blocking peaks not before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 19 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: Just out of curiosity, how did you decide on specifically the 1/21/16, 12/08/09, 2/12/83 events for your composite. Those are the big 5 storms 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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