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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


yoda
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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

i hope this isnt the kind of winter where JB wins at 500MB but loses at the surface like he likes to claim on failed winters

That was always BS. We are still suffering from that fall pattern though. Left us void of a domestic cold air source.  Sometimes in that situation blocking takes a while to pay off. Seriously go back end look at the January 2016 thread. We had good blocking for a while before that storm and I remember this exact same conversation.  My guess is if the PV gets obliterated and we get a -AO for a significant portion of winter we will do ok. Maybe better then ok. Probably not good enough to make you happy though. 

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1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

So we are out to January now? The storm after the storm after the storm? 

It's not the same as the last several years, though...where we were always looking Day 10-15 just for improvement in the larger signals. This time around, the larger signals are moving up in time...and thus, better reason to actually start believing in potential that could be 2-3 weeks away...and promising signs of continuing potential beyond that. So this time we wait  a little longer  for the further development of a pattern that's already building...and start looking at legit chances!

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