JakkelWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 8 minutes ago, nj2va said: Euro might be cooking something up...low in OK on the 30th. The post-Christmas GL cutter acting as a bit of a 50/50. Let’s see what it does. Cutter. It's a literal disaster. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 looks biblical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 this literally is the worst block ive ever seen. Rain, warm and cutters 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Cutter if we cant get winter storms in our best patterns....we are cooked bro. Wait till the blocking falls apart and its in the mid 90s in late January 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Cutter. 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Cutter Looks like I need to watch "Breaking Away" again... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Cutter Got a west based -NAO and a 50/50 and it goes to Chicago. The Pac drives the bus...got to get a little bit of help there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: this literally is the worst block ive ever seen. Rain, warm and cutters With the pac not ideal we still need spacing. The wave slows and amplified too early allowing too much spacing between it and the miller b that becomes the 50/50. Look up top is good. Other things are the problem there. We need that system to eject and be less amplified out west to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Cutter. Pops a low along the gulf coast at H222 while the primary is over Chicago. By then the primary has wrecked the thermals so it doesn’t really matter what it does from there. Let’s see what the EPS says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ji said: if we cant get winter storms in our best patterns....we are cooked bro. Wait till the blocking falls apart and its in the mid 90s in late January This made me laugh out loud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 How many good storms do we normally get with a full latitude trough centered in Texas with a ridge just off the Atlantic coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Got a west based -NAO and a 50/50 and it goes to Chicago. The Pac drives the bus...got to get a little bit of help there. Yea this run it dumps way too much energy into the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Got a west based -NAO and a 50/50 and it goes to Chicago. The Pac drives the bus...got to get a little bit of help there. Exactly. Ji zooms in on one feature and thinks just because it exists, there can only be one possible result. It cuts because the PAC is crap and an eastern ridge pops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Exactly. Ji zooms in on one feature and thinks just because it exists, there can only be one possible result. It cuts because the PAC is crap and an eastern ridge pops. your not suppose to have a SE ridge when there is a Southern -Western NAO block and a 50 50 low 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: Exactly. Ji zooms in on one feature and thinks just because it exists, there can only be one possible result. It cuts because the PAC is crap and an eastern ridge pops. Ji isn’t totally wrong. The analogs to that look aren’t that bad. Lots of snow outcomes. That kind of blocking historically would overcome a bad pac most of the time. He might be on to a sobering reality that in a warmer regime now it no longer can. I’m not jumping there yet. One run. Last run snowed on us. I’ll see how this plays out. But there are a lot of runs that torch us right through a crazy block period. If that ends up reality I would be a little disheartened...not just by the short term disappointment but the long term implications. to be clear i don’t mean if we just get unlucky and a phase happens too late or a storm gets suppressed. But if we get a -3stdv AO and a west based block and everything cuts...I don’t care what the pac looks like history suggests that line of look can overcome the pac. If we need both the pac and atl to be perfect to get snow...well we won’t see it very often! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: Ji isn’t totally wrong. The analogs to that look aren’t that bad. Lots of snow outcomes. That kind of blocking historically would overcome a bad pac most of the time. He might be on to a sobering reality that in a warmer regime now it no longer can. I’m not jumping there yet. One run. Last run snowed on us. I’ll see how this plays out. But there are a lot of runs that torch us right through a crazy block period. If that ends up reality I would be a little disheartened...not just by the short term disappointment but the long term implications. to be clear i don’t mean if we just get unlucky and a phase happens too late or a storm gets suppressed. But if we get a -3stdv AO and a west based block and everything cuts...I don’t care what the pac looks like history suggests that line of look can overcome the pac. If we need both the pac and atl to be perfect to get snow...well we won’t see it very often! Its one op run. I am just looking at it at face value. Not making any broader conclusions. I evaluate at h5, not the surface, and I can tell ya I saw where this run was heading pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 How many days away are we talking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 10 minutes ago, Ji said: your not suppose to have a SE ridge when there is a Southern -Western NAO block and a 50 50 low It could be meteorologically impossible. Toss! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, CAPE said: It could be meteorologically impossible. Toss! lol i hope your rain event from last week isnt your best event of the season 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 21 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Got a west based -NAO and a 50/50 and it goes to Chicago. The Pac drives the bus...got to get a little bit of help there. You know once the Nina fades and the PAC lag starts to become workable we are going to lose the -NAM right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: lol i hope your rain event from last week isnt your best event of the season Oh I am sure I will get better rain events than that. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: Its one op run. I am just looking at it at face value. Not making any broader conclusions. I evaluate at h5, not the surface, and I can tell ya I saw where this run was heading pretty quickly. The pac isn’t a dumpster fire that wave is just too amplified too early. The look day 10 is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: The pac isn’t a dumpster fire that wave is just too amplified too early. The look day 10 is good. I think I have BINGO! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 9 minutes ago, CAPE said: It could be meteorologically impossible. Toss! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 31 minutes ago, Ji said: if we cant get winter storms in our best patterns....we are cooked bro. Wait till the blocking falls apart and its in the mid 90s in late January You need to move somewhere else. You know the climo of this area and yet you still go berserk every year that isn't a 2009 - 2010. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: Oh I am sure I will get better rain events than that. You couldn't ask for a better rain event than last week. We were so close to the r/s line and the temperatures were so close to freezing but I didn't see a single flake. I call that a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: The pac isn’t a dumpster fire that wave is just too amplified too early. The look day 10 is good. No, its workable on the means. But we know it will be uncooperative at times. And again, my posts were wrt this particular op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Since I didn't get snow last week is it so hard for the models to give some digital/fantasy snow with pretty colors on the maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Euro has great blocking, but PNA is a disaster. Hopefully the look changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: No, its workable on the means. But we know it will be uncooperative at times. And again, my posts were wrt this particular op run. Yea something it’s trended towards today...there are 2 systems in close proximity crashing into the west next week. Earlier runs had a bit more space and the initial wave ejected. The 2nd dug in the SW and was eventually a threat around Jan 3-5. This run (and EPS supports) there isn’t much space and the lead wave washes out and most of the energy gets absorbed into the second which amplified the trough way too much to our west. EPS has a good look around day 11-13 fWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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