CAPE Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: Ji isn’t totally wrong. The analogs to that look aren’t that bad. Lots of snow outcomes. That kind of blocking historically would overcome a bad pac most of the time. He might be on to a sobering reality that in a warmer regime now it no longer can. I’m not jumping there yet. One run. Last run snowed on us. I’ll see how this plays out. But there are a lot of runs that torch us right through a crazy block period. If that ends up reality I would be a little disheartened...not just by the short term disappointment but the long term implications. to be clear i don’t mean if we just get unlucky and a phase happens too late or a storm gets suppressed. But if we get a -3stdv AO and a west based block and everything cuts...I don’t care what the pac looks like history suggests that line of look can overcome the pac. If we need both the pac and atl to be perfect to get snow...well we won’t see it very often! Its one op run. I am just looking at it at face value. Not making any broader conclusions. I evaluate at h5, not the surface, and I can tell ya I saw where this run was heading pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 How many days away are we talking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 10 minutes ago, Ji said: your not suppose to have a SE ridge when there is a Southern -Western NAO block and a 50 50 low It could be meteorologically impossible. Toss! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, CAPE said: It could be meteorologically impossible. Toss! lol i hope your rain event from last week isnt your best event of the season 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 21 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Got a west based -NAO and a 50/50 and it goes to Chicago. The Pac drives the bus...got to get a little bit of help there. You know once the Nina fades and the PAC lag starts to become workable we are going to lose the -NAM right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: lol i hope your rain event from last week isnt your best event of the season Oh I am sure I will get better rain events than that. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: Its one op run. I am just looking at it at face value. Not making any broader conclusions. I evaluate at h5, not the surface, and I can tell ya I saw where this run was heading pretty quickly. The pac isn’t a dumpster fire that wave is just too amplified too early. The look day 10 is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: The pac isn’t a dumpster fire that wave is just too amplified too early. The look day 10 is good. I think I have BINGO! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 9 minutes ago, CAPE said: It could be meteorologically impossible. Toss! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 31 minutes ago, Ji said: if we cant get winter storms in our best patterns....we are cooked bro. Wait till the blocking falls apart and its in the mid 90s in late January You need to move somewhere else. You know the climo of this area and yet you still go berserk every year that isn't a 2009 - 2010. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: Oh I am sure I will get better rain events than that. You couldn't ask for a better rain event than last week. We were so close to the r/s line and the temperatures were so close to freezing but I didn't see a single flake. I call that a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: The pac isn’t a dumpster fire that wave is just too amplified too early. The look day 10 is good. No, its workable on the means. But we know it will be uncooperative at times. And again, my posts were wrt this particular op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Since I didn't get snow last week is it so hard for the models to give some digital/fantasy snow with pretty colors on the maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Euro has great blocking, but PNA is a disaster. Hopefully the look changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: No, its workable on the means. But we know it will be uncooperative at times. And again, my posts were wrt this particular op run. Yea something it’s trended towards today...there are 2 systems in close proximity crashing into the west next week. Earlier runs had a bit more space and the initial wave ejected. The 2nd dug in the SW and was eventually a threat around Jan 3-5. This run (and EPS supports) there isn’t much space and the lead wave washes out and most of the energy gets absorbed into the second which amplified the trough way too much to our west. EPS has a good look around day 11-13 fWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea something it’s trended towards today...there are 2 systems in close proximity crashing into the west next week. Earlier runs had a bit more space and the initial wave ejected. The 2nd dug in the SW and was eventually a threat around Jan 3-5. This run (and EPS supports) there isn’t much space and the lead wave washes out and most of the energy gets absorbed into the second which amplified the trough way too much to our west. EPS has a good look around day 11-13 fWIW I saw that but why can’t we seem to get low heights in the 50/50 area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Yea something it’s trended towards today...there are 2 systems in close proximity crashing into the west next week. Earlier runs had a bit more space and the initial wave ejected. The 2nd dug in the SW and was eventually a threat around Jan 3-5. This run (and EPS supports) there isn’t much space and the lead wave washes out and most of the energy gets absorbed into the second which amplified the trough way too much to our west. EPS has a good look around day 11-13 fWIW Troughs dumping too far west and shortwaves amplifying too soon/west is a tendency during Ninas correct? I think this is what we are going to be battling as we try to time up a storm with a favorable NA. Hopefully we can get a bit of a PNA ridge at just the right time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 There are definitely 2 camps in the Eps. Cutter and more southern track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 56 minutes ago, Ji said: your not suppose to have a SE ridge when there is a Southern -Western NAO block and a 50 50 low The 1025 off the mid Atlantic will not materialize Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 18 minutes ago, jaydreb said: I saw that but why can’t we seem to get low heights in the 50/50 area? Look where the NA ridge is located. Cant have a high and a low in the same place. Ideally we want the +heights focused further NW. There are hints of that towards the end of the ens runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There are definitely 2 camps in the Eps. Cutter and more southern track. For the ~31st-1st threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 its happening.gif 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: For the ~31st-1st threat? Hard to tell it all gets mixed with timing issues between the waves. Track for the period after looks good but it’s all rainy solutions on the eps. Disappointing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 54 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: You know once the Nina fades and the PAC lag starts to become workable we are going to lose the -NAM right? Unlikely. You would need the Niña to remain strong in all likelihood to lose the Atlantic. There are very few if any cases since 1950 where December had a solid AO/NAO that were negative where there wasn’t another long duration negative stretch in January or February without some sort of decent La Niña influence. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: its happening.gif Must be the solar min. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: For the ~31st-1st threat? Right - Jan 31st 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 31 minutes ago, CAPE said: Must be the solar min. Hey buddy that's my line! (and I'm ridin' that horse as far it goes too, lol) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 How many inches of u-wind is a a MECS? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 i see every thing lining up! except for the snow and cold! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Hard to tell it all gets mixed with timing issues between the waves. Track for the period after looks good but it’s all rainy solutions on the eps. Disappointing i hope this isnt the kind of winter where JB wins at 500MB but loses at the surface like he likes to claim on failed winters 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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