mattie g Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 35 minutes ago, WVclimo said: Hopefully it's got the right idea in the long range. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 five-sigma corresponds to about 1 in 3.5 million assuming a normal distribution So if we hear discussion of another 4 or 5 sigma event we should consider the source and/or unfollow Kayleigh McEnany Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 How’s the Christmas blizzard looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: five-sigma corresponds to about 1 in 3.5 million assuming a normal distribution So if we hear discussion of another 4 or 5 sigma event we should consider the source and/or unfollow Kayleigh McEnany This is different. The scale on that map Eric Webber posted is different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: How’s the Christmas blizzard looking? Possible scattered flurries/ isolated flizzard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Hows the Biblical Pattern DT was talking about looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 54 minutes ago, frd said: you think ridge bridge way out there possible. Getting closer... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 the GFS maybe the biggest trainwreck i have seen since the trainwreck of last winter 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just now, pasnownut said: Getting closer... I hope “getting closer” = a bomb that can slow crawl from the OBX straight towards the benchmark. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 4 minutes ago, Scraff said: I hope “getting closer” = a bomb that can slow crawl from the OBX straight towards the benchmark. wrt to the ridge bridge, one can see source region getting closer to vodka kinda cold, and not just run of the mill arctic stuff. Like I said, closer, but not there yet (if it does materialize is also a stretch), but no doubt verbatim, cold will not be an issue if this verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 it has no snow for us in 16 days during the peak of our winter 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 8 minutes ago, Scraff said: I hope “getting closer” = a bomb that can slow crawl from the OBX straight towards the benchmark. im sure that 50/50 high will help 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 euro seems like it has as storm though--lets see if slides south under the block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Euro might be cooking something up...low in OK on the 30th. The post-Christmas GL cutter acting as a bit of a 50/50. Let’s see what it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 8 minutes ago, nj2va said: Euro might be cooking something up...low in OK on the 30th. The post-Christmas GL cutter acting as a bit of a 50/50. Let’s see what it does. Cutter. It's a literal disaster. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 looks biblical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 this literally is the worst block ive ever seen. Rain, warm and cutters 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Cutter if we cant get winter storms in our best patterns....we are cooked bro. Wait till the blocking falls apart and its in the mid 90s in late January 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Cutter. 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Cutter Looks like I need to watch "Breaking Away" again... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Cutter Got a west based -NAO and a 50/50 and it goes to Chicago. The Pac drives the bus...got to get a little bit of help there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: this literally is the worst block ive ever seen. Rain, warm and cutters With the pac not ideal we still need spacing. The wave slows and amplified too early allowing too much spacing between it and the miller b that becomes the 50/50. Look up top is good. Other things are the problem there. We need that system to eject and be less amplified out west to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Cutter. Pops a low along the gulf coast at H222 while the primary is over Chicago. By then the primary has wrecked the thermals so it doesn’t really matter what it does from there. Let’s see what the EPS says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ji said: if we cant get winter storms in our best patterns....we are cooked bro. Wait till the blocking falls apart and its in the mid 90s in late January This made me laugh out loud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 How many good storms do we normally get with a full latitude trough centered in Texas with a ridge just off the Atlantic coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Got a west based -NAO and a 50/50 and it goes to Chicago. The Pac drives the bus...got to get a little bit of help there. Yea this run it dumps way too much energy into the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Got a west based -NAO and a 50/50 and it goes to Chicago. The Pac drives the bus...got to get a little bit of help there. Exactly. Ji zooms in on one feature and thinks just because it exists, there can only be one possible result. It cuts because the PAC is crap and an eastern ridge pops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Exactly. Ji zooms in on one feature and thinks just because it exists, there can only be one possible result. It cuts because the PAC is crap and an eastern ridge pops. your not suppose to have a SE ridge when there is a Southern -Western NAO block and a 50 50 low 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: Exactly. Ji zooms in on one feature and thinks just because it exists, there can only be one possible result. It cuts because the PAC is crap and an eastern ridge pops. Ji isn’t totally wrong. The analogs to that look aren’t that bad. Lots of snow outcomes. That kind of blocking historically would overcome a bad pac most of the time. He might be on to a sobering reality that in a warmer regime now it no longer can. I’m not jumping there yet. One run. Last run snowed on us. I’ll see how this plays out. But there are a lot of runs that torch us right through a crazy block period. If that ends up reality I would be a little disheartened...not just by the short term disappointment but the long term implications. to be clear i don’t mean if we just get unlucky and a phase happens too late or a storm gets suppressed. But if we get a -3stdv AO and a west based block and everything cuts...I don’t care what the pac looks like history suggests that line of look can overcome the pac. If we need both the pac and atl to be perfect to get snow...well we won’t see it very often! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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