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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


yoda
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3 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

 

five-sigma corresponds to about 1 in 3.5 million assuming a normal distribution 

So if we hear discussion of another 4 or 5 sigma event we should consider the source and/or unfollow Kayleigh McEnany

image.png.d25e8cf4f87df0cbb837be44dc39a9c0.png

This is different. The scale on that map Eric Webber posted is different.

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4 minutes ago, Scraff said:

I hope “getting closer” = a bomb that can slow crawl from the OBX straight towards the benchmark. B)

wrt to the ridge bridge, one can see source region getting closer to vodka kinda cold, and not just run of the mill arctic stuff.  Like I said, closer, but not there yet (if it does materialize is also a stretch), but no doubt verbatim, cold will not be an issue if this verifies.

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

this literally is the worst block ive ever seen. Rain, warm and cutters

 

ecmwf_T850_namer_10.png

With the pac not ideal we still need spacing. The wave slows and amplified too early allowing too much spacing between it and the miller b that becomes the 50/50. Look up top is good. Other things are the problem there. We need that system to eject and be less amplified out west to work.  

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Got a west based -NAO and a 50/50 and it goes to Chicago.  The Pac drives the bus...got to get a little bit of help there.

Exactly.

Ji zooms in on one feature and thinks just because it exists, there can only be one possible result. It cuts because the PAC is crap and an eastern ridge pops.

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1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Exactly.

Ji zooms in on one feature and thinks just because it exists, there can only be one possible result. It cuts because the PAC is crap and an eastern ridge pops.

your not suppose to have a SE ridge when there is a Southern -Western NAO block and a 50 50 low

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5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Exactly.

Ji zooms in on one feature and thinks just because it exists, there can only be one possible result. It cuts because the PAC is crap and an eastern ridge pops.

Ji isn’t totally wrong. The analogs to that look aren’t that bad. Lots of snow outcomes. That kind of blocking historically would overcome a bad pac most of the time. He might be on to a sobering reality that in a warmer regime now it no longer can. I’m not jumping there yet. One run. Last run snowed on us. I’ll see how this plays out. But there are a lot of runs that torch us right through a crazy block period. If that ends up reality I would be a little disheartened...not just by the short term disappointment but the long term implications. to be clear i don’t mean if we just get unlucky and a phase happens too late or a storm gets suppressed. But if we get a -3stdv AO and a west based block and everything cuts...I don’t care what the pac looks like history suggests that line of look can overcome the pac. If we need both the pac and atl to be perfect to get snow...well we won’t see it very often!  

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