December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Great op euro run. That look would trend colder if it held... I think we should root on the day 7 clipper to bomb and form a 50/50 eveb if it’s rain 

You need to change your display name. That's so 3 years ago.

[Solution Man]

11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

You need to change your display name. That's so 3 years ago.

Perhaps Hurteagle?
 

[frd]

32 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Great op euro run. That look would trend colder if it held... I think we should root on the day 7 clipper to bomb and form a 50/50 eveb if it’s rain 

Walt Drag feels the 28 and 29 th cyclone bombs out near Cape Code, and I could assume further deepening , maybe that plays a role in the threat period near Jan. 2 to 5 th. 

Also of note the continuous North Atlantic wave breaking events. 

 

 

[frd]

 

This is interesting, next 15 days , most of the snowfall action is far to the West.  

 

 

 

[Heisy]

48 minutes ago, CAPE said:

You need to change your display name. That's so 3 years ago.

Yeah I need to contact a mod. Waiting for James Harden to be a 76er I’ll go with HardenHadleyCelll

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Yeah I need to contact a mod. Waiting for James Harden to be a 76er I’ll go with HardenHadleyCelll

You can do it yourself. It's under Account settings.

[dailylurker]

30 minutes ago, frd said:

 

This is interesting, next 15 days , most of the snowfall action is far to the West.  

 

 

 

Looks like climo. 

[aldie 22]

31 minutes ago, frd said:

 

This is interesting, next 15 days , most of the snowfall action is far to the West.  

 

 

 

I think i'm finding this less interesting than you do

[frd]

5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I think i'm finding this less interesting than you do

Well, its disappointing,  and interesting only to the degree of final outcomes and what some had mentioned as a window for significant snowfall potential. I thought I saw where the EPS was pooling some very cold air in Central Canada late in its run. Can we tap that in January as the pattern progresses.  At least in the short-term Canada is not cold by its standards. 

 

[aldie 22]

5 minutes ago, frd said:

Well, its disappointing,  and interesting only to the degree of final outcomes and what some had mentioned as a window for significant snowfall potential. I thought I saw where the EPS was pooling some very cold air in Central Canada late in its run. Can we tap that in January as the pattern progresses.  At least in the short-term Canada is not cold by its standards. 

 

This was always Mitchnicks go to....are you him?

[frd]

1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

This was always Mitchnicks go to....are you him?

No.  Started looking at this from back in the old days of dial up. Maybe Eastern weather and when Bastardi didnt hype the weather.  

 

[RDM]

21 minutes ago, frd said:

No.  Started looking at this from back in the old days of dial up. Maybe Eastern weather and when Bastardi didnt hype the weather.  

 

Can't resist and no intent to stir up something, but when has Bastardi not hyped the weather?  That was his M/O in his early days back in the 90's.  He was always juicing things up.  

[RIC_WX]

33 minutes ago, frd said:

Well, its disappointing,  and interesting only to the degree of final outcomes and what some had mentioned as a window for significant snowfall potential. I thought I saw where the EPS was pooling some very cold air in Central Canada late in its run. Can we tap that in January as the pattern progresses.  At least in the short-term Canada is not cold by its standards. 

 

The warmest anamolies in Atlantic Canada are pretty textbook for a -NAO.  So I don't know this is necessarily all bad news

[anotherman]

1 minute ago, RDM said:

Can't resist and no intent to stir up something, but when had Bastardi not hyped the weather?  That was his M/O in his early days back in the 90's.  He was always juicing things up.  

I think he means before he turned long-range forecasting into an anti-climate change propaganda machine.

[frd]

2 minutes ago, RDM said:

Can't resist and no intent to stir up something, but when had Bastardi not hyped the weather?  That was his M/O in his early days back in the 90's.  He was always juicing things up.  

He was a much better read in those days, more balanced IMHO and I learned a lot about tele-connections from him.    

Meanwhile check out the new AO forecast,  yikes !!! 

[chris21]

1 minute ago, frd said:

He was a much better read in those days, more balanced IMHO and I learned a lot about tele-connections from him.    

Meanwhile check out the new AO forecast,  yikes !!! 

That’s a good yikes.

[frd]

@WxUSAF

An update on the EPS and zonal winds, as Allan mentions,  the signal is only getting stronger.  

 

 

[frd]

 

This was mentioned yesterday,  but 1076 mb is nuts !  

I believe the NH record might be 1080 mb.  

 

 

 

[Chris78]

19 minutes ago, frd said:

He was a much better read in those days, more balanced IMHO and I learned a lot about tele-connections from him.    

Meanwhile check out the new AO forecast,  yikes !!! 

If that AO forecast verifies we will definitely have opportunities. 

[Scraff]

So with an AO forecast to run that negative, do we need to worry about storms getting driven into the Carolinas? Yes I know we have worries about everything with any potential storm, but I was merely curious...

[psuhoffman]

@frd good morning. Nice updates. Couple thoughts. 
1. I think for a while we’re going to have to roll the dice with domestic cold. The WPO trough is prevented cross polar flow but it’s also preventing the Nina from taking over also.  Overall it’s a trade off I’ll take. Domestic cold worked in January 2016 btw. But not before some frustrating rainy coastals earlier in the month.  So long as the source regions in Canada aren’t super warm even air that is a little above normal there will usually work mid winter is discharged south into our region.  If the NAO and AO really tank (and some guidance suggests it will) and exerts pressure to retrograde the WPO a little further west and allow an epo ridge (the famous ridge bridge) then we could see a colder regime. 
 

2. I am by no means a Strat expert. But in my experience whenever we have had a PV “event” that leads to extended blocking during the core of winter there were hints in the TPV before the stratospheric warning or wind reversal.  In 2009 the TPV was already a mess before the SPV collapsed.  I’ve never seen the TPV in a completely hostile state mid winter and a SSW suddenly saves us.  2018 was the closest to that but it happened very late in the season. There is some synergy there but that’s why I don’t spend a lot of time focusing on the strat to hope for a save. Typically you see it coming at the trop level also. This would be a perfect example.  

[Yeoman]

How are the opportunities looking? Still 10 days out?

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, RDM said:

Can't resist and no intent to stir up something, but when has Bastardi not hyped the weather?  That was his M/O in his early days back in the 90's.  He was always juicing things up.  

I see what you did there (I think).

[frd]

28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@frd good morning. Nice updates. Couple thoughts. 
1. I think for a while we’re going to have to roll the dice with domestic cold. The WPO trough is prevented cross polar flow but it’s also preventing the Nina from taking over also.  Overall it’s a trade off I’ll take. Domestic cold worked in January 2016 btw. But not before some frustrating rainy coastals earlier in the month.  So long as the source regions in Canada aren’t super warm even air that is a little above normal there will usually work mid winter is discharged south into our region.  If the NAO and AO really tank (and some guidance suggests it will) and exerts pressure to retrograde the WPO a little further west and allow an epo ridge (the famous ridge bridge) then we could see a colder regime. 
 

2. I am by no means a Strat expert. But in my experience whenever we have had a PV “event” that leads to extended blocking during the core of winter there were hints in the TPV before the stratospheric warning or wind reversal.  In 2009 the TPV was already a mess before the SPV collapsed.  I’ve never seen the TPV in a completely hostile state mid winter and a SSW suddenly saves us.  2018 was the closest to that but it happened very late in the season. There is some synergy there but that’s why I don’t spend a lot of time focusing on the strat to hope for a save. Typically you see it coming at the trop level also. This would be a perfect example.  

 

I am with you regarding your thoughts and progressions. 

Seems colder air gets involved later,  but we could score with typical cold as we near better climo.

Strat is preconditioned and the trop is receptive to the incoming and ongoing SSWE. Also, as HM alluded to,  the timing of this event is very good, nothing really on the table to interfere. In the past the high amp MJO and Pac features made the SSWE useless and entered chaos into seasonal forecasts. 

This time the brunt of the hoped for benefits seems to  NA and the Eastern US in time. 

As several strat experts have mentioned nothing is a slam dunk in long range forecasting, but so far it looks good and the event is becoming more likely as well. 

The  expansive event getting underway in Siberia will hopefully lead us to a more conducive period of +PNA. 

Meanwhile very cold air should begin to pool and grow in coverage in Central Canada. Get that Greenland blovk to retro as well and the bar is raised. 

Looking at the lastest GFS NH polar vortex ellipse time lapse forecast, it seems to place us in a interesting location as the SSWE progresses. 

Also of interest, is Anthony's post yesterday  regarding the pv, strat, and the warming, etc. He mentioned the event itself may, depending how it evolves, could create it's own regime. I thought that was a very interesting comment.       

 

 

 

 

 

 

[RDM]

4 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I see what you did there (I think).

Yup - you are quite astute as normal Mappy.  You pick up on things many others don't.  haha    

[psuhoffman]

@frd wrt HMs comments he may have been alluding to my observation that Mjo waves in conflict with a dominant base state do not have the same impact on the pattern as when the MJO is driving or in synergy with the dominant pattern. A brief warm phase mjo in a -NAM base state won’t hurt is as much as when the MJO goes ape in warm phases during a +NAM state. 

[JakkelWx]

54 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I am by no means a Strat expert. But in my experience whenever we have had a PV “event” that leads to extended blocking during the core of winter there were hints in the TPV before the stratospheric warning or wind reversal.  In 2009 the TPV was already a mess before the SPV collapsed.

Luckily this year the TPV is already in a discombobulated state (the AO has already been negative since the beginning of December and that's before the upcoming SSW). I'm not saying that there will be a 2009-10 repeat this year but it is an interesting little tidbit in regards to the TPV/SPV.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Most important run of gfs of Ji’s life

[mappy]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

You can do it yourself. It's under Account settings.

i can't even change my name. not sure he will be able to do so either. 

[CAPE]

Just now, mappy said:

i can't even change my name. not sure he will be able to do so either. 

I changed mine a couple months ago. No one even noticed.