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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


yoda
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Ha...of course very early, but...if, IF things were to work out with a -NAO and/or -AO and/or blocking for a change (...wouldn't that be enough to put the solar min back in the conversation? Again, obviously a big IF...but IF it were to happen what other explanation would there be? Lol (especially if it were to happen after going this long without, and happen in a nina on top of that?)

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23 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s a beautiful progression. Normally I’d say we’re playing with house money so early but this season it’s imperative we produce in that. Like it or not, the niña is still lurking..

Yeah, would be nice to get on the board in a clear way with that sort of look. Plenty of cold air around on those EPS charts so less/none of the issues with this weekends storm. 

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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m trying to figure out if there’s a good way to chase this season. Hurricane season was hard. I’d be outside a lot which is good but the hotel piece during covid spikes makes me a little uncomfortable.

I've stayed at one hotel during COVID and the precautions they were taking were pretty good. Sealing the room after cleaning with a seal, glass barriers in front of the counter, keycard returns in a slot instead of to an actual person, distancing enforced. I felt safer at the hotel than I do when I go into the office one day a week. The hotel appeared to be occupied less than 20% from what I could tell. 

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2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m trying to figure out if there’s a good way to chase this season. Hurricane season was hard. I’d be outside a lot which is good but the hotel piece during covid spikes makes me a little uncomfortable.

chase   what?  COASTAL   Lows?
 

 wow... 

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Recent GFS runs giving me flashbacks to last winter.

One good sign going forward is some actual cold gets into Canada. The longwave pattern looks supportive of a cold shot for the east around mid month with a ridge building into the EPO region. It remains to be seen if that pattern sticks or quickly breaks down.

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The pattern sucks for this upcoming storm. Look at the surface map. That high nw of the Great Lakes is ok, but the high east of the Maritimes is hideous. We want low pressure there. This underscores the importance of a true -NAO(block) with a 50-50 low underneath. That scenario produces confluence and places a surface high further west with a mechanism for cold to drain southward, and decreases the chances of a low track overtop/to our NW.

If there was an antecedent arctic air mass, there might be a better outcome with this look.

ecmwf_mslpaNorm_namer_4.png

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

The pattern sucks for this upcoming storm. Look at the surface map. That high nw of the Great Lakes ok, but the high east of the Maritimes is hideous. We want low pressure there. This underscores the importance of a true -NAO(block) with a 50-50 low underneath. That scenario produces confluence and places a surface high further west with a mechanism for cold to drain southward, and decreases the chances of a low track overtop/to our NW.

If there was an antecedent arctic air mass, there might be a better outcome with this look.

ecmwf_mslpaNorm_namer_4.png

Besides the holiday period warm up of recent years the  multi-year lack of BM storms and the propensity of inland runners and cutters look as a risk to possibly continue this month. Hopefully we get a opportunity to score during mid month. One nasty cold outbreak being forecast mid-month as you mentioned. Maybe a Manitoba Mauler would be nice .

 

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23 minutes ago, frd said:

Besides the holiday period warm up of recent years the  multi-year lack of BM storms and the propensity of inland runners and cutters look as a risk to possibly continue this month. Hopefully we get a opportunity to score during mid month. One nasty cold outbreak being forecast mid-month as you mentioned. Maybe a Manitoba Mauler would be nice .

 

Agree here, it seems like at least for the start a repeat of the inland pattern of the previous few seasons.

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22 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I'm just glad it's an active pattern and the storms have been strong hopefully we continue this theme . 1 or 2 is bound to get us . 

Gfs really bringing the Vodka cold  late run 

gfs-deterministic-conus-t850-8271200.png

Wonder if this time period between the 16 th and the 20th delivers a Northern stream disturbance. Some indications of upstream blocking which may work in favor regarding our latitude. Speculation only of course, some signs of Greanland blocking, maybe spur East coast cyclogenesis, or Clipper potential. Keep in mind also Griteaters post. There appears to be some roll forward/analog support. 

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11 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I probably will. I’ve stayed at hotels twice and both were fine. I follow the health guidelines pretty carefully when I’m around people. 

Hey I’m in the Philly area, I’ve been on a few winter storm chased myself and looking for someone to go with. Help cut down expenses. Hoping this storm is strong enough to and East enough to maybe chase to the Poconos. PM me if looking to chase this storm or any storm in future. Covid makes it tough obviously.

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I enjoy using this feature at Wx Models.  Especially this far out it’s important to not pay attention to amounts but “clustering”. This to me shows an obvious uptick to chances as we move deeper into the month and obviously is due to the projected pattern.

9025C24E-B8B9-44D0-BD91-44489315CF6B.png

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