Ji Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Will this get @bobchill back,? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Ha...of course very early, but...if, IF things were to work out with a -NAO and/or -AO and/or blocking for a change (...wouldn't that be enough to put the solar min back in the conversation? Again, obviously a big IF...but IF it were to happen what other explanation would there be? Lol (especially if it were to happen after going this long without, and happen in a nina on top of that?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 46 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: As long as you mean Ant and not the accuweather HM I was wondering the same thing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 23 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: It’s a beautiful progression. Normally I’d say we’re playing with house money so early but this season it’s imperative we produce in that. Like it or not, the niña is still lurking.. Yeah, would be nice to get on the board in a clear way with that sort of look. Plenty of cold air around on those EPS charts so less/none of the issues with this weekends storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 41 minutes ago, Ji said: Will this get @bobchill back,? Yeah @Bob Chill where are ya? Did you finally get tired of us last winter? Lol We miss your special brand of snow gut analysis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dendrimer77 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 This place aint the same without @Bob Chill and @showmethesnow 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Take the pining for those who choose not to post here to banter lol. Bob Chill will probably return when there is an actual trackable threat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Just now, losetoa6 said: Its snowing right now Tracking scattered flurries is an amazing experience. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 GFS says shorts and flip flops next weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 4 minutes ago, jaydreb said: GFS says shorts and flip flops next weekend. There is no season here that requires you to put away shorts and flip flops. They should always be kept handy. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Looks like happy hour was early today at 12z. 18z is more like last call... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 31 minutes ago, jaydreb said: GFS says shorts and flip flops next weekend. I wore shorts and flip flops today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 I personally think the GFS is out to lunch for the weekend. Time will tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Well, I was making plans to chase on Saturday, so the system ending up toasty warm and raining everywhere would be par for course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 18Z WB EURO....major rain event heading in. Get the leaves up before Sat. No freezing air for this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’m trying to figure out if there’s a good way to chase this season. Hurricane season was hard. I’d be outside a lot which is good but the hotel piece during covid spikes makes me a little uncomfortable. I've stayed at one hotel during COVID and the precautions they were taking were pretty good. Sealing the room after cleaning with a seal, glass barriers in front of the counter, keycard returns in a slot instead of to an actual person, distancing enforced. I felt safer at the hotel than I do when I go into the office one day a week. The hotel appeared to be occupied less than 20% from what I could tell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’m trying to figure out if there’s a good way to chase this season. Hurricane season was hard. I’d be outside a lot which is good but the hotel piece during covid spikes makes me a little uncomfortable. chase what? COASTAL Lows? wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Snow chase, DT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Recent GFS runs giving me flashbacks to last winter. One good sign going forward is some actual cold gets into Canada. The longwave pattern looks supportive of a cold shot for the east around mid month with a ridge building into the EPO region. It remains to be seen if that pattern sticks or quickly breaks down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 The pattern sucks for this upcoming storm. Look at the surface map. That high nw of the Great Lakes is ok, but the high east of the Maritimes is hideous. We want low pressure there. This underscores the importance of a true -NAO(block) with a 50-50 low underneath. That scenario produces confluence and places a surface high further west with a mechanism for cold to drain southward, and decreases the chances of a low track overtop/to our NW. If there was an antecedent arctic air mass, there might be a better outcome with this look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 1 hour ago, CAPE said: The pattern sucks for this upcoming storm. Look at the surface map. That high nw of the Great Lakes ok, but the high east of the Maritimes is hideous. We want low pressure there. This underscores the importance of a true -NAO(block) with a 50-50 low underneath. That scenario produces confluence and places a surface high further west with a mechanism for cold to drain southward, and decreases the chances of a low track overtop/to our NW. If there was an antecedent arctic air mass, there might be a better outcome with this look. Besides the holiday period warm up of recent years the multi-year lack of BM storms and the propensity of inland runners and cutters look as a risk to possibly continue this month. Hopefully we get a opportunity to score during mid month. One nasty cold outbreak being forecast mid-month as you mentioned. Maybe a Manitoba Mauler would be nice . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlh Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 12 hours ago, toolsheds said: I wore shorts and flip flops today. Ha! You and me both! Always kept handy at the front of the closet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlh Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 23 minutes ago, frd said: Besides the holiday period warm up of recent years the multi-year lack of BM storms and the propensity of inland runners and cutters look as a risk to possibly continue this month. Hopefully we get a opportunity to score during mid month. One nasty cold outbreak being forecast mid-month as you mentioned. Maybe a Manitoba Mauler would be nice . Agree here, it seems like at least for the start a repeat of the inland pattern of the previous few seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 22 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I'm just glad it's an active pattern and the storms have been strong hopefully we continue this theme . 1 or 2 is bound to get us . Gfs really bringing the Vodka cold late run Wonder if this time period between the 16 th and the 20th delivers a Northern stream disturbance. Some indications of upstream blocking which may work in favor regarding our latitude. Speculation only of course, some signs of Greanland blocking, maybe spur East coast cyclogenesis, or Clipper potential. Keep in mind also Griteaters post. There appears to be some roll forward/analog support. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 11 hours ago, Weather Will said: 18Z WB EURO....major rain event heading in. Get the leaves up before Sat. No freezing air for this weekend. This is damn near criminal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 As we move closer to mid December a little clarity on developments regarding the Aleutian High. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Current Canadian 10- Day Mean forecast. Imagine this will be changing soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 11 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: I probably will. I’ve stayed at hotels twice and both were fine. I follow the health guidelines pretty carefully when I’m around people. Hey I’m in the Philly area, I’ve been on a few winter storm chased myself and looking for someone to go with. Help cut down expenses. Hoping this storm is strong enough to and East enough to maybe chase to the Poconos. PM me if looking to chase this storm or any storm in future. Covid makes it tough obviously. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 I enjoy using this feature at Wx Models. Especially this far out it’s important to not pay attention to amounts but “clustering”. This to me shows an obvious uptick to chances as we move deeper into the month and obviously is due to the projected pattern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: I'm usually a solo act, but maybe someday after covid.. In everything you do?. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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