CAPE Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It looks like we might finally time up a pretty good pattern with our prime snow climo window. It’s been forever since we did that. I’m trying to be guarded. And expectations should be kept realistic. It is still a Nina. We’ve had -AO/NAO Nina’s before where we did ok but not GREAT. If 1996 happens awesome but I’d set the bar more realistically. Let’s just get a warning event or two into the urban corridor then sprinkle in some more minor snows here or there. Imo that’s a realistic bar if we get an extended -NAM state during prime climo. ETA: start to see signs the WPO vortex wants to anchor further west and allow a pna ridge or if the PV really gets obliterated and we see indications the AO will tank through to spring and that’s when we might start to dream BIGGER...for now in ecstatic simply to see real signs we should avoid a total dud this year. Things are looking better than most of us expected. The effects of the apparent SWE/weakening SPV and the weakening of the Nina with time are really wildcards, so interesting times ahead. I am always prepared for failure lol. Ninas seem to find a way to produce at least a couple moderate events here though. I wont mention Boxing day 2010(oops) but caught the western edge of that, and did ok in mid/late winter in 17 and 18 too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It looks like we might finally time up a pretty good pattern with our prime snow climo window. It’s been forever since we did that. I’m trying to be guarded. And expectations should be kept realistic. It is still a Nina. We’ve had -AO/NAO Nina’s before where we did ok but not GREAT. If 1996 happens awesome but I’d set the bar more realistically. Let’s just get a warning event or two into the urban corridor then sprinkle in some more minor snows here or there. Imo that’s a realistic bar if we get an extended -NAM state during prime climo. ETA: start to see signs the WPO vortex wants to anchor further west and allow a pna ridge or if the PV really gets obliterated and we see indications the AO will tank through to spring and that’s when we might start to dream BIGGER...for now in ecstatic simply to see real signs we should avoid a total dud this year. Regime ensembles paint a pretty picture for January regarding a favorable - NAO Blocking signature and location. @SimonLeeWx · 1h In terms of the surface response to this weak vortex, it is too soon to say anything substantial - but note that the regime of the ensemble-mean is the negative NAO for the middle third of January, with Greenland blocking prevailing... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Speaking of January, 12z EPS gets VERY close to a 10mb wind reversal in the Strat just after New Years, and apparently the latest Euro monthly keeps things rockin' through most of January at least. When Allen posts I listen. @RaleighWx · 1h The 12z EPS shows the 10mb zonal wind at 65N is approaching a reverse to easterly late in the extended. This COULD harbor continued/enhanced blocking in the high latitudes in the troposphere as we head deeper into January. Image from http://stormivstawxmodels.com 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 This week 2 precip anomaly is likely partially indicative of why were lacking a good snow mean on the EPS. Definitely not a cutter or northern track look. But it seems to indicate a lot of members shred systems as they head east and run into the blocking. Shearing them out likely and redevelop too Far East. But that’s a look I’ll take at range over most of the alternatives. day 10-15 really shows it 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Is this the HM version of woof? 7 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This week 2 precip anomaly is likely partially indicative of why were lacking a good snow mean on the EPS. Definitely not a cutter or northern track look. But it seems to indicate a lot of members shred systems as they head east and run into the blocking. Shearing them out likely and redevelop too Far East. But that’s a look I’ll take at range over most of the alternatives. I was looking at this too. Had me thinking maybe a coastal scraper type deal for early Jan. Not suggesting bomb cyclone II or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Is this the HM version of woof? Is this where we wish we lived in the Northeast? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Ji will like this gfs run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Ji will like this gfs run Oh I get it you really mean he won’t like it..just got that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Miller B train. Although the GFS does like the early Jan period. One of those shortwaves has to hit over the next couple of weeks. I cant see us getting shutout going into our prime climo with that much blocking. Maybe just some small overrun events. But no way we are shut out with that pattern. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 10 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I cant see us getting shutout going into our prime climo with that much blocking. Maybe just some small overrun events. But no way we are shut out with that pattern. Knock on wood!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 12 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Miller B train. Although the GFS does like the early Jan period. One of those shortwaves has to hit over the next couple of weeks. I cant see us getting shutout going into our prime climo with that much blocking. Maybe just some small overrun events. But no way we are shut out with that pattern. From your keyboard to @WxWatcher007 sickle. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 17 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Miller B train. Although the GFS does like the early Jan period. One of those shortwaves has to hit over the next couple of weeks. I cant see us getting shutout going into our prime climo with that much blocking. Maybe just some small overrun events. But no way we are shut out with that pattern. It's been a few years since we had a decent pattern heading into prime climo. Pattern isn't perfect but it's damn good compared to the past few years where we were model watching praying for a pattern change which was always 2 weeks away. It appears that January could afford us several chances. Seems like we need 3 or 4 opportunities to hit on 1. Potential is there for good January. Alot just comes down to caous and luck. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 If people focused on what they get vs. what others get then whatever snow that falls will be awesome. It only becomes less awesome when some get 3" but are mad because Allentown got 7" and Worcester got 12". If we get a parade of Miller B's then yeah we won't get as much as up north but we will most likely get something. But that's not how we roll here I guess...it's always about what could have been. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 After the D7 potential models replace the vortex around Hudson bay with ridging...tugging/merging with the NAO block. Helping to create a more west based block. A good trend, imo. Better highs and high positions start to show up .. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 10 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: If people focused on what they get vs. what others get then whatever snow that falls will be awesome. It only becomes less awesome when some get 3" but are mad because Allentown got 7" and Worcester got 12". If we get a parade of Miller B's then yeah we won't get as much as up north but we will most likely get something. But that's not how we roll here I guess...it's always about what could have been. I would love to focus on what I get, except it's zero. Any advice? 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: I would love to focus on what I get, except it's zero. Any advice? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I don't think he really cares if it snows in my yard lol. I see you lurking. Reaper. Forget it. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 11 minutes ago, CAPE said: I would love to focus on what I get, except it's zero. Any advice? Move about 50 miles east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Odds Ji chimes in after he washes his dog to say "The GFS is a disaster" I say 148% chance 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 38 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: The day 8 system still worth watching . No way am I looking past it . Lots can and will change that's for sure . Not to mention Xmas eve and any other shortwaves that will undoubtedly pop up in the med short range. Gefs There is one issue there. Like others have mentioned the HP originates in SE. that Hp you see there builds in later. Not saying it’s not possible, but my focus is more on what happens few days after. Of course I could just be kicking the cab down the road and say the same thing in a few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said: If people focused on what they get vs. what others get then whatever snow that falls will be awesome. It only becomes less awesome when some get 3" but are mad because Allentown got 7" and Worcester got 12". If we get a parade of Miller B's then yeah we won't get as much as up north but we will most likely get something. But that's not how we roll here I guess...it's always about what could have been. This is snow Buddhism. Learn to want you have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 13 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: This is snow Buddhism. Learn to want you have. Well, in keeping with @yoda, who started this thread..."Snow or snow not! There is no try!" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Gfs is a disaster comparable to last winter 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Gfs is a disaster comparable to last winter There he is!! Alive and well I see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: Gfs is a disaster comparable to last winter And we’re back. Bah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 7 minutes ago, Ji said: Gfs is a disaster comparable to last winter @WxWatcher007 might as well reap Ji now because the upcoming HECS on January 2nd will only feature 24 inches instead of 36 inches in Leesburg. 2 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 14 minutes ago, Ji said: Gfs is a disaster comparable to last winter You'd be so much better if you just didn't act like a dramatic drama queen 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 2 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: Odds Ji chimes in after he washes his dog to say "The GFS is a disaster" I say 148% chance 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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