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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


yoda
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10 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

If people focused on what they get vs. what others get then whatever snow that falls will be awesome. It only becomes less awesome when some get 3" but are mad because Allentown got 7" and Worcester got 12". If we get a parade of Miller B's then yeah we won't get as much as up north but we will most likely  get something. But that's not how we roll here I guess...it's always about what could have been.

I would love to focus on what I get, except it's zero. Any advice?

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38 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

The day 8 system still worth watching . No way am I looking past it . Lots can and will change that's for sure . Not to mention Xmas eve and any other shortwaves that will undoubtedly pop up in the med short range. 

Gefs 

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-conus-mslp_anom-9210800.png

There is one issue there. Like others have mentioned the HP originates in SE. that Hp you see there builds in later. Not saying it’s not possible, but my focus is more on what happens few days after. Of course I could just be kicking the cab down the road and say the same thing in a few days

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1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

If people focused on what they get vs. what others get then whatever snow that falls will be awesome. It only becomes less awesome when some get 3" but are mad because Allentown got 7" and Worcester got 12". If we get a parade of Miller B's then yeah we won't get as much as up north but we will most likely  get something. But that's not how we roll here I guess...it's always about what could have been.

This is snow Buddhism.  Learn to want you have.  

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7 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

GFS looks different than 18z but the hp gets pushed off and the storm cuts.

 

Ji should be around any second that 00z looks even more disastrous than 18z overall.

ETA:  In seriousness, didn’t look at the run but based on that verbatim map, wouldn’t take much adjustment for a more favorable outcome.  Push that High further west where its more of a hat on top of the low..would help shove the low east vs north.  At least I think.

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Just now, Ji said:

Looks like our blocking is blocking us from getting snow or cold

Lol it was a pretty huge shift from 18z. This would argue a better outcome is possible if not likely.  At least if it played out no one can blame a lack of blocking or say it’s not ideally placed.  That’s a classic Greenland block.  
94E431C4-569E-4C56-96DB-49DFC192C2C5.thumb.png.34c88239a61d6db80dc534cccb8fe969.png

 

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8 minutes ago, Ji said:

If we keep getting cutters and rain in severe ao and nao....winters as we know them are gone forever

In all seriousness though, let this play out. You know we do better as blocking relaxes not as it forms. We just saw that play out. We had a legit threat that barely missed as the last round broke down. The blocking is in its inception there. Look at the last 2 serious blocking episodes. March 18 we suffered a cold rain in early March in the infancy of that blocking regime before getting several quality snow chances (and at least 1 some more hits depending on exact location). January 2016 we had a couple rain storms and I seem to recall you saying EXACTLY this same thing. Then something happened like a week later. Maybe it will come to me.  Just saying let this play out. If we actually get the blocking advertised on guidance and NOTHING comes of it but cutters and rain I will be shocked but also alarmed. But that’s not how I think it plays out. I do think you might have to be more patient then you want to be though. 

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@Ji let’s analyze this though. Then I’m getting some sleep. The GFS drives that storm up into a blocked in high and it literally makes it to Erie and gets shredded. Then jumps hundreds of miles SE and redevelops off the coast. How often is that how it plays out?  Usually it jumps once it hits that kind of confluence not 12 hours after being sheared to oblivion by it. Path of least resistance and all.  Meanwhile the CMC has so much blocking that storm never even makes it here. It gets to Texas and spins loops for 3 days because there is literally too much blocking.  I’m gonna say we should wait and that’s is a lot of room for this to adjust. Not the least of which is how the miller b around Dec 28 affects this and guidance is still shifting with that.  But goodnight. Hopefully tomorrow we get the digital snow you want. 

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Just now, SnowLover22 said:

Could easily go away next run but the euro shows potential around New Years as have other models to varying degrees. 

Snow to sleet for us.

It does produce a continuous swath of snow from the CA mountains all the way to RI..  Really slow  mover.

Seems to be one of those Atlantic VS pacific  -PNA VS -NAO  SE ridge vs confluence  trilogies.   Many more bizarre runs to come I'm sure.

 

 

 

 

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