December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Heisy]

Love the EPSlook New Year’s Eve/Day. Notice the cad signature on the eps this far out at 234-240 hours

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Close...

 

I would say 240hrs is pretty damn close.  Trough axis is a little farther west, but otherwise pretty good match.  

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I would say 240hrs is pretty damn close.  Trough axis is a little farther west, but otherwise pretty good match.  

Yes, it’s pretty good, workable at least, straight through. I just picked one panel. It’s also been backing off on the AK trough the last few runs which would help.  It also, like the GEFS and GEPS, is retrograding the NAO block more and more into January. If the looks the globals are teasing are correct we should snow somewhere in the next 2-3 weeks. Problem is way too many SWs in the flow to pick out any one threat as THE ONE yet. 

[psuhoffman]

@WxUSAF Frankly you could pick any panel from day 5-15 and it’s a look we would have killed for at anytime last year! 

[WxUSAF]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yes, it’s pretty good, workable at least, straight through. I just picked one panel. It’s also been backing off on the AK trough the last few runs which would help.  It also, like the GEFS and GEPS, is retrograding the NAO block more and more into January. If the looks the globals are teasing are correct we should snow somewhere in the next 2-3 weeks. Problem is way too many SWs in the flow to pick out any one threat as THE ONE yet. 

Speaking of January, 12z EPS gets VERY close to a 10mb wind reversal in the Strat just after New Years, and apparently the latest Euro monthly keeps things rockin' through most of January at least.  

[anotherman]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Speaking of January, 12z EPS gets VERY close to a 10mb wind reversal in the Strat just after New Years, and apparently the latest Euro monthly keeps things rockin' through most of January at least.  

Oh boy, that is music to my ears....

[psuhoffman]

35 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Speaking of January, 12z EPS gets VERY close to a 10mb wind reversal in the Strat just after New Years, and apparently the latest Euro monthly keeps things rockin' through most of January at least.  

There is EVERY indication this will be a -AO winter. 

[frd]

A player for sure ....maybe Jan 3 rd  to the  14 th. 

Eric Webb

 

@webberweather

 

The 12z full res ECMWF is going w/ absolute min temps as low as -60F in southern Russia as a 1069 hPa sfc high descends into Mongolia. Oof

 

 

 

2:03 PM · Dec 21, 2020·Twitter Web App

[nj2va]

45 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yes, it’s pretty good, workable at least, straight through. I just picked one panel. It’s also been backing off on the AK trough the last few runs which would help.  It also, like the GEFS and GEPS, is retrograding the NAO block more and more into January. If the looks the globals are teasing are correct we should snow somewhere in the next 2-3 weeks. Problem is way too many SWs in the flow to pick out any one threat as THE ONE yet. 

Some may be wondering why the snowfall mean is pretty standard climo given AO/NAO domain and IMO, this may be the reason...so many s/ws so models may be having a hard time keying in on which one may be the biggest threat.  Given the shtty looks we endured all winter last year, its nice to see NAM help which looks to have serious staying power.  The potential is there and thats all we can ask for at this point.

[LP08]

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Some may be wondering why the snowfall mean is pretty standard climo given AO/NAO domain and IMO, this may be the reason...so many s/ws so models may be having a hard time keying in on which one may be the biggest threat.  Given the shtty looks we endured all winter last year, its nice to see NAM help which looks to have serious staying power.  The potential is there and thats all we can ask for at this point.

This kind of sums it up....no idea which one could be the 1.

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Some may be wondering why the snowfall mean is pretty standard climo given AO/NAO domain and IMO, this may be the reason...so many s/ws so models may be having a hard time keying in on which one may be the biggest threat.  Given the shtty looks we endured all winter last year, its nice to see NAM help which looks to have serious staying power.  The potential is there and thats all we can ask for at this point.

I think that’s part of it. I also think guidance has been running too warm in general in the long range. The last 7 days was supposed to be a torch from long range. Guidance has a lot of good track rain storms in the 7-15 day period. It’s not like the snow mean is super high north of us. Most of that up there is from lake effect and a clipper or two. The storm track looks good.  I have a feeling it will trend colder if the storm track is across the south. 

[Maestrobjwa]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There is EVERY indication this will be a -AO winter. 

Wow! After what we had to deal with last winter...this is music to all of our ears! What an awesome 180 from the news ya had to deliver a year ago, lol Yes, I'm sure you'll say nothing is ever automatic...but just knowing that our snow chances improve--and with something that has been so elusive (the -AO) is very encouraging!

[CAPE]

 I don't put much stock in the weeklies, but looking a week or so beyond the run they initialize on  gives us a rough idea of how things will roll forward. Mid Jan still has a favorable HL look on today's edition. Pretty much a continuation of what we are seeing on the LR means. The -NAO is more west based from day 15 forward to this timeframe.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

 I Don't put much stock in the weeklies, but looking a week or so beyond the run they initialize on  gives us a rough idea of how things will roll forward. Mid Jan still has a favorable HL look on today's edition. Pretty much a continuation of what we are seeing on the LR means. The -NAO is more west based from day 15 forward. to this timeframe.

It looks like we might finally time up a pretty good pattern with our prime snow climo window. It’s been forever since we did that. 
I’m trying to be guarded. And expectations should be kept realistic. It is still a Nina. We’ve had -AO/NAO Nina’s before where we did ok but not GREAT.  If 1996 happens awesome but I’d set the bar more realistically.  Let’s just get a warning event or two into the urban corridor then sprinkle in some more minor snows here or there. Imo that’s a realistic bar if we get an extended -NAM state during prime climo. 

ETA:  start to see signs the WPO vortex wants to anchor further west and allow a pna ridge or if the PV really gets obliterated and we see indications the AO will tank through to spring and that’s when we might start to dream BIGGER...for now in ecstatic simply to see real signs we should avoid a total dud this year. 

[midatlanticweather]

Missing Bob again. Wish he would come back 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It looks like we might finally time up a pretty good pattern with our prime snow climo window. It’s been forever since we did that. 
I’m trying to be guarded. And expectations should be kept realistic. It is still a Nina. We’ve had -AO/NAO Nina’s before where we did ok but not GREAT.  If 1996 happens awesome but I’d set the bar more realistically.  Let’s just get a warning event or two into the urban corridor then sprinkle in some more minor snows here or there. Imo that’s a realistic bar if we get an extended -NAM state during prime climo. 

ETA:  start to see signs the WPO vortex wants to anchor further west and allow a pna ridge or if the PV really gets obliterated and we see indications the AO will tank through to spring and that’s when we might start to dream BIGGER...for now in ecstatic simply to see real signs we should avoid a total dud this year. 

Things are looking better than most of us expected. The effects of the apparent SWE/weakening SPV and the weakening of the Nina with time are really wildcards, so interesting times ahead. I am always prepared for failure lol. Ninas seem to find a way to produce at least a couple moderate events here though. I wont mention Boxing day 2010(oops) but caught the western edge of that, and did ok in mid/late winter in 17 and 18 too.

[frd]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It looks like we might finally time up a pretty good pattern with our prime snow climo window. It’s been forever since we did that. 
I’m trying to be guarded. And expectations should be kept realistic. It is still a Nina. We’ve had -AO/NAO Nina’s before where we did ok but not GREAT.  If 1996 happens awesome but I’d set the bar more realistically.  Let’s just get a warning event or two into the urban corridor then sprinkle in some more minor snows here or there. Imo that’s a realistic bar if we get an extended -NAM state during prime climo. 

ETA:  start to see signs the WPO vortex wants to anchor further west and allow a pna ridge or if the PV really gets obliterated and we see indications the AO will tank through to spring and that’s when we might start to dream BIGGER...for now in ecstatic simply to see real signs we should avoid a total dud this year. 

Regime ensembles paint a pretty picture for January regarding a favorable -  NAO Blocking signature and location.  

 

@SimonLeeWx

·

1h

 

In terms of the surface response to this weak vortex, it is too soon to say anything substantial - but note that the regime of the ensemble-mean is the negative NAO for the middle third of January, with Greenland blocking prevailing...

 

 

 

 

 

[frd]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Speaking of January, 12z EPS gets VERY close to a 10mb wind reversal in the Strat just after New Years, and apparently the latest Euro monthly keeps things rockin' through most of January at least.  

 

 

When Allen posts I listen. 

 

@RaleighWx

·

1h

 

The 12z EPS shows the 10mb zonal wind at 65N is approaching a reverse to easterly late in the extended. This COULD harbor continued/enhanced blocking in the high latitudes in the troposphere as we head deeper into January. Image from http://stormivstawxmodels.com

 

 

[psuhoffman]

This week 2 precip anomaly is likely partially indicative of why were lacking a good snow mean on the EPS. Definitely not a cutter or northern track look. But it seems to indicate a lot of members shred systems as they head east and run into the blocking. Shearing them out likely and redevelop too Far East. But that’s a look I’ll take at range over most of the alternatives. 

day 10-15 really shows it 

[WxUSAF]

Is this the HM version of woof?

 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This week 2 precip anomaly is likely partially indicative of why were lacking a good snow mean on the EPS. Definitely not a cutter or northern track look. But it seems to indicate a lot of members shred systems as they head east and run into the blocking. Shearing them out likely and redevelop too Far East. But that’s a look I’ll take at range over most of the alternatives. 

I was looking at this too. Had me thinking maybe a coastal scraper type deal for early Jan. Not suggesting bomb cyclone II or anything.

[aldie 22]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Is this the HM version of woof?

 

Is this where we wish we lived in the Northeast?

[WinterWxLuvr]

Ji will like this gfs run

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Ji will like this gfs run

Oh I get it you really mean he won’t like it..just got that

[clskinsfan]

Miller B train. Although the GFS does like the early Jan period. One of those shortwaves has to hit over the next couple of weeks. I cant see us getting shutout going into our prime climo with that much blocking. Maybe just some small overrun events. But no way we are shut out with that pattern. 

[SnowDreamer]

10 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

 I cant see us getting shutout going into our prime climo with that much blocking. Maybe just some small overrun events. But no way we are shut out with that pattern. 

Knock on wood!!! 

[Ralph Wiggum]

12 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Miller B train. Although the GFS does like the early Jan period. One of those shortwaves has to hit over the next couple of weeks. I cant see us getting shutout going into our prime climo with that much blocking. Maybe just some small overrun events. But no way we are shut out with that pattern. 

From your keyboard to @WxWatcher007 sickle.

[Chris78]

17 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Miller B train. Although the GFS does like the early Jan period. One of those shortwaves has to hit over the next couple of weeks. I cant see us getting shutout going into our prime climo with that much blocking. Maybe just some small overrun events. But no way we are shut out with that pattern. 

It's  been a few years since we had a decent pattern heading into prime climo.

Pattern isn't perfect but it's damn good compared to the past few years where we were  model watching praying for a pattern change which was always 2 weeks away.

It appears that January could afford us several chances. Seems like we need 3 or 4 opportunities to hit on 1.  

Potential is there for good January. Alot just comes down to caous and luck.

 

[aldie 22]

If people focused on what they get vs. what others get then whatever snow that falls will be awesome. It only becomes less awesome when some get 3" but are mad because Allentown got 7" and Worcester got 12". If we get a parade of Miller B's then yeah we won't get as much as up north but we will most likely  get something. But that's not how we roll here I guess...it's always about what could have been.

[poolz1]

After the D7 potential models replace the vortex around Hudson bay with ridging...tugging/merging with the NAO block. Helping to create a more west based block.  A good trend, imo. Better highs and high positions start to show up ..