December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Maestrobjwa]

Not sure I wanna get sucked into this "potential"... Last week of December is a historically bad time for us to get good snow (more than a couple inches). If you look at our snow history...I don't recall seeing any dates between Dec 26th and Jan. 9th where we got WSW level stuff at BWI/DCA (anybody got any record on that?) I'm not sure whether it's just coincidence or what...but for some reason we don't seem to get warning level snows during that time period. Would love for this trend to suddenly break this year though...It's 2020, so why not? Lol

[gymengineer]

9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Not sure I wanna get sucked into this "potential"... Last week of December is a historically bad time for us to get good snow (more than a couple inches). If you look at our snow history...I don't recall seeing any dates between Dec 26th and Jan. 9th where we got WSW level stuff at BWI/DCA (anybody got any record on that?) I'm not sure whether it's just coincidence or what...but for some reason we don't seem to get warning level snows during that time period. Would love for this trend to suddenly break this year though...It's 2020, so why not? Lol

Are you sure you meant to go all the way to January 9th? 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Euro is at least interesting. I don’t like the chances of snow Christmas Eve but you never know. It’s the Monday system that’s intriguing 

[WinterWxLuvr]

11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Not sure I wanna get sucked into this "potential"... Last week of December is a historically bad time for us to get good snow (more than a couple inches). If you look at our snow history...I don't recall seeing any dates between Dec 26th and Jan. 9th where we got WSW level stuff at BWI/DCA (anybody got any record on that?) I'm not sure whether it's just coincidence or what...but for some reason we don't seem to get warning level snows during that time period. Would love for this trend to suddenly break this year though...It's 2020, so why not? Lol

Is WSW the bar?

[40westwx]

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Euro is at least interesting. I don’t like the chances of snow Christmas Eve but you never know. It’s the Monday system that’s intriguing 

yup.. get a good track and worry about temp and p-types later

[jaydreb]

Euro getting closer for the DT storm (12/29). 

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

Are you sure you meant to go all the way to January 9th? 

I had the blizzard of '96 in mind...but I see I was off by a couple days--so Jan 6th! But I picked that date because that was the earliest in January we had ever gotten a big hit (I think)--kinda unusual (usually our hits come from mid-January through President's day, and the occasional March hit).

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Is WSW the bar?

I'd like to think 5" is a reasonable bar to consider something noteworthy. It's been my bar since I missed it by .2 inches in 2019, lol

[40westwx]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I had the blizzard of '96 in mind...but I see I was off by a couple days--so Jan 6th! But I picked that date because that was the earliest in January we had ever gotten a big hit (I think)--kinda unusual (usually our hits come from mid-January through President's day, and the occasional March hit).

I remember getting a foot of snow on new years day one year.. not sure which year it was.. but it happened

[psuhoffman]

43 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

Kind of knit picking here, but again, that blocking (as modeled) is too far east for us to get the amplification we need. It will change though so that’s good lol

 

eta: and also close to a 50/50 but it’s not connected. Partly due to the position of blocking in East-Greenland 

It's too far east to get a HECS probably but we can get a good old regular snowstorm with blocking there.  We focus way too much on the HECS look.   That look is super rare...happens only a handful of times a decade and if were lucky a couple hit.  But MOST, by a LARGE %, of our snowfall comes during good but not PERFECT patterns with slight flaws.  

[WinterWxLuvr]

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I had the blizzard of '96 in mind...but I see I was off by a couple days--so Jan 6th! But I picked that date because that was the earliest in January we had ever gotten a big hit (I think)--kinda unusual (usually our hits come from mid-January through President's day, and the occasional March hit).

Dec 26, 2012 was about 6” here followed by sleet and freezing rain. That was the Chill storm

[North Balti Zen]

16 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Is WSW the bar?

Can't speak for Maestro, but Balt City peeps are still chasing their first verified Warning-level snowfall since Jan. 2016 (no, we did not get there in the Jan. 2019 dealie). For my part, I would like a Watch into a Warning that verifies for Balt City. Been quite awhile up here...

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

22 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Not sure I wanna get sucked into this "potential"... Last week of December is a historically bad time for us to get good snow (more than a couple inches). If you look at our snow history...I don't recall seeing any dates between Dec 26th and Jan. 9th where we got WSW level stuff at BWI/DCA (anybody got any record on that?) I'm not sure whether it's just coincidence or what...but for some reason we don't seem to get warning level snows during that time period. Would love for this trend to suddenly break this year though...It's 2020, so why not? Lol

Well, that may be true about the last week or so of December, climatologically.  But then again, people said kinda the same thing about the 3rd week of January, that we never get any good snows around that time.  Then there was some kind of event...oh...sometime about Jan. 22-23, 2016 I seem to recall?? 

I'm just joking with you, of course, for fun!

Not saying a Jan. 2016 redux should be expected or will occur (but we'd take that!), but maybe we can crack through the dearth of WSW snows the last week of December!

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Dec 26, 2012 was about 6” here followed by sleet and freezing rain. That was the Chill storm

Got no such thing here...total inches at BWI that December is 1.4"

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Well, that may be true about the last week or so of December, climatologically.  But then again, people said kinda the same thing about the 3rd week of January, that we never get any good snows around that time.  Then there was some kind of event...oh...sometime about Jan. 22-23, 2016 I seem to recall?? 

I'm just joking with you, of course, for fun!

Not saying a Jan. 2016 redux should be expected or will occur (but we'd take that!), but maybe we can crack through the dearth of WSW snows the last week of December!

Ha, well I don't know who was saying that about the 3rd week of January...because if you look at our history that around the time when the money period starts!  But yes, as WSW breakthrough would be nice!

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Can't speak for Maestro, but Balt City peeps are still chasing their first verified Warning-level snowfall since Jan. 2016 (no, we did not get there in the Jan. 2019 dealie). For my part, I would like a Watch into a Warning that verifies for Balt City. Been quite awhile up here...

Indeed it has...2019 was a total troll with 4.8" being tallied, lol It has been almost 5 years...time for the WDI! 

[frd]

To me the Euro took a step back.  Its active but not cold enough. Hard to say what will transpire. Not worth the time to think it over, hopefully after the 25th its clearer. By that time wave breaking will be working it's way through the modeling and a more realistic outcome will present itself, whether it is more rain or snow. 

[Maestrobjwa]

13 minutes ago, 40westwx said:

I remember getting a foot of snow on new years day one year.. not sure which year it was.. but it happened

Whenever it was it probably didn't happen down my way...don't have any record of that amount...but again, that would be awesome!

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Ha, well I don't know who was saying that about the 3rd week of January...because if you look at our history that around the time when the money period starts!  But yes, as WSW breakthrough would be nice!

When it became apparent that there was something very possible around that time in Jan. 2016, I vaguely recall some discussion that for whatever reason those middle 2 weeks (or there about) of January had a relative lack of good snow events.

[WVclimo]

36 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Not sure I wanna get sucked into this "potential"... Last week of December is a historically bad time for us to get good snow (more than a couple inches). If you look at our snow history...I don't recall seeing any dates between Dec 26th and Jan. 9th where we got WSW level stuff at BWI/DCA (anybody got any record on that?) I'm not sure whether it's just coincidence or what...but for some reason we don't seem to get warning level snows during that time period. Would love for this trend to suddenly break this year though...It's 2020, so why not? Lol

BWI had 6"+ on Christmas day 1969.  About 6" on New Years Day in 1971.  Around 5" on 12/27/1990.

[StormchaserChuck!]

What a -WPO! 

Sometimes a -WPO around Dec 22/23 leads to a -EPO/-WPO around Jan 10-15, at the least not a +EPO at that time, I think. 

[Ji]

26 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Euro getting closer for the DT storm (12/29). 

lol its about 20 degrees to warm

[psuhoffman]

I think we need to stop focusing on getting the PERFECT pattern and look at what works in a Nina.  We likely are not getting a picture perfect pacific pattern.  Nor do we need the ABSOLUTE perfect block to get a snowstorm.  We do if we want a HECS.  But we likely aren't getting a 20" HECS storm either...there has only been 1 of those (1996) EVER in a Nina going back to 1900!  But we have had plenty of warning level snowfalls in a Nina.  This is the composite of 6 of the best Nina snowstorms since 1950 between Dec 15 and Jan 30 at BWI.  I left off really early and after Feb 1 storms because our snow climo wrt what works is slightly different very early and later in the season.  So these are good "models" for what works this time of year in a nina.  All of these were warning 5"+ events at BWI and some of them were very nice ~10" events in our area.  

Here is what I take away from that look, and what has worked in past Nina's to get snow.  Notice that trough in and around AK.  No that is not ideal but its acting to suppress the pacific ridge associated with a Nina.  In that regards...its actually helping more then its hurting assuming it stays centered WEST of AK.  If it shifts east too much its a problem and we get flooded with pac puke.  Centered west of AK and it damages the thermal profile of the CONUS yes but its not fatal.  There can be just enough trough into the east to get domestic polar air into the northeast.  It is what it is...you lose that trough there and the central PAC ridge goes APE and its all over...you get a trough in the NW and ridge out in the east.  The -NAO is critical to this because it helps retrograde that trough out of western North America just enough to make this workable.  Lose the -AO/NAO and the Nina PAC ridge can exert itself and that trough in AK shifts east into NW NAM and its last year all over!  Notice also the NAO is centered east of ideal there.  But what is critical to get that to work is to have SOME extension of the ridge west towards Hudson Bay.   But...that said...there are some analogs in there where the NAO blocking is centered pretty far east (2000 is one recent example) and still managed to work out.   There are also numerous other decent snowfalls...advisory in the city and warning NW that I didn't bother to include but that show a similar picture in terms of how to get snow in a Nina and what typically works.  

[gymengineer]

23 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I had the blizzard of '96 in mind...but I see I was off by a couple days--so Jan 6th! But I picked that date because that was the earliest in January we had ever gotten a big hit (I think)--kinda unusual (usually our hits come from mid-January through President's day, and the occasional March hit).

Without going too far back, DC also had notable (WSW criteria) snowstorms 12/31-1/1/71, 1/4-5/80, and 1/8/88. 1/77 had a 3-day sequence early in the month that would total WSW as well but they weren’t all one storm. 

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

BWI had 6"+ on Christmas day 1969.  About 6" on New Years Day in 1971.  Around 5" on 12/27/1990.

Ah ha...my mom has told me about this, and I was about to mention it as a possible exception...I was born two days before that (Dec 24th), and she tells me she stayed in the hospital an extra day because of it, lol (so literally my first time outside there was snow on the ground! ) 

Where did you look up that record? Or did you just happen to remember?

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I think we need to stop focusing on getting the PERFECT pattern and look at what works in a Nina.  We likely are not getting a picture perfect pacific pattern.  Nor do we need the ABSOLUTE perfect block to get a snowstorm.  We do if we want a HECS.  But we likely aren't getting a 20" HECS storm either...there has only been 1 of those (1996) EVER in a Nina going back to 1900!  But we have had plenty of warning level snowfalls in a Nina.  This is the composite of 6 of the best Nina snowstorms since 1950 between Dec 15 and Jan 30 at BWI.  I left off really early and after Feb 1 storms because our snow climo wrt what works is slightly different very early and later in the season.  So these are good "models" for what works this time of year in a nina.  All of these were warning 5"+ events at BWI and some of them were very nice ~10" events in our area.  

Here is what I take away from that look, and what has worked in past Nina's to get snow.  Notice that trough in and around AK.  No that is not ideal but its acting to suppress the pacific ridge associated with a Nina.  In that regards...its actually helping more then its hurting assuming it stays centered WEST of AK.  If it shifts east too much its a problem and we get flooded with pac puke.  Centered west of AK and it damages the thermal profile of the CONUS yes but its not fatal.  There can be just enough trough into the east to get domestic polar air into the northeast.  It is what it is...you lose that trough there and the central PAC ridge goes APE and its all over...you get a trough in the NW and ridge out in the east.  The -NAO is critical to this because it helps retrograde that trough out of western North America just enough to make this workable.  Lose the -AO/NAO and the Nina PAC ridge can exert itself and that trough in AK shifts east into NW NAM and its last year all over!  Notice also the NAO is centered east of ideal there.  But what is critical to get that to work is to have SOME extension of the ridge west towards Hudson Bay.   But...that said...there are some analogs in there where the NAO blocking is centered pretty far east (2000 is one recent example) and still managed to work out.   There are also numerous other decent snowfalls...advisory in the city and warning NW that I didn't bother to include but that show a similar picture in terms of how to get snow in a Nina and what typically works.  

Lovely alliteration there, intentional or not (picture perfect pacific pattern)!!

At any rate, good discussion of how we can get decent moderate events, if one is not so hung up on HECS chasing.

[aldie 22]

10 minutes ago, Ji said:

lol its about 20 degrees to warm

so 52?

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Lovely alliteration there, intentional or not (picture perfect pacific pattern)!!

At any rate, good discussion of how we can get decent moderate events, if one is not so hung up on HECS chasing.

Thanks...

I am going to straight up drop kick the first person who complains if we get a 6-10" snowstorm in the 95 corridor.  It's a Nina.  Expectations!!!

[WinterWxLuvr]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think we need to stop focusing on getting the PERFECT pattern and look at what works in a Nina.  We likely are not getting a picture perfect pacific pattern.  Nor do we need the ABSOLUTE perfect block to get a snowstorm.  We do if we want a HECS.  But we likely aren't getting a 20" HECS storm either...there has only been 1 of those (1996) EVER in a Nina going back to 1900!  But we have had plenty of warning level snowfalls in a Nina.  This is the composite of 6 of the best Nina snowstorms since 1950 between Dec 15 and Jan 30 at BWI.  I left off really early and after Feb 1 storms because our snow climo wrt what works is slightly different very early and later in the season.  So these are good "models" for what works this time of year in a nina.  All of these were warning 5"+ events at BWI and some of them were very nice ~10" events in our area.  

Here is what I take away from that look, and what has worked in past Nina's to get snow.  Notice that trough in and around AK.  No that is not ideal but its acting to suppress the pacific ridge associated with a Nina.  In that regards...its actually helping more then its hurting assuming it stays centered WEST of AK.  If it shifts east too much its a problem and we get flooded with pac puke.  Centered west of AK and it damages the thermal profile of the CONUS yes but its not fatal.  There can be just enough trough into the east to get domestic polar air into the northeast.  It is what it is...you lose that trough there and the central PAC ridge goes APE and its all over...you get a trough in the NW and ridge out in the east.  The -NAO is critical to this because it helps retrograde that trough out of western North America just enough to make this workable.  Lose the -AO/NAO and the Nina PAC ridge can exert itself and that trough in AK shifts east into NW NAM and its last year all over!  Notice also the NAO is centered east of ideal there.  But what is critical to get that to work is to have SOME extension of the ridge west towards Hudson Bay.   But...that said...there are some analogs in there where the NAO blocking is centered pretty far east (2000 is one recent example) and still managed to work out.   There are also numerous other decent snowfalls...advisory in the city and warning NW that I didn't bother to include but that show a similar picture in terms of how to get snow in a Nina and what typically works.  

I got 20” in either 14 or 15. Can’t remember. Wasn’t at least one of those a weak Nina?

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Thanks...

I am going to straight up drop kick the first person who complains if we get a 6-10" snowstorm in the 95 corridor.  It's a Nina.  Expectations!!!

Haha!  Give 'em the Ray Guy treatment!!  That person who complains might be (ahem)JI(ahem)!! 

(ETA:  and to keep up with the alliteration, you can refer to those who complain as "Nattering nabobs of negativism!!")