Heisy Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 More interested in the second event after Xmas. Don’t like where the HP is setup for the first redeveloping clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, poolz1 said: CMC with a good look at the end of the run... Yeah that actually should perk up southeast forum interests. Kind of have a detached southern branch with plenty of cold air 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: SO. MANY. SHORTWAVES. Going to be a volatile forecast post-Xmas I expect. regardless of what the snowfall totals say.. thats a weenie run in my book.. I will take my chances with anyone of those... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 hour ago, anotherman said: DT posted about the pattern reminding him of '96. There is nothing wrong with comparing the upcoming pattern to the HECs years... nothing wrong with it all.. It is frustrating when people get sarcastic about it.. and mock people who make those comparisons.. We are just trying to have some fun and fantasize about snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 CMC, GFS, EURO all push that first low after Christmas farther south at 12Z compared to last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 That post-Christmas look is what you want with the shortwave parade being depicted. Storms forced underneath with high frequency. It would be tough to get anything north of 40N with a storm track. There might be a sneaky event in there with so many pulses running around. 100% guarantee that not all shortwaves for the extended are even modeled either. I like the chances of some kind of winter precip with that 5H setup. 12 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gopper Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: SO. MANY. SHORTWAVES. Going to be a volatile forecast post-Xmas I expect. "volatile", "complicated" Aren't those adjectives that tend to not work out so well for Mid-atlantic area? Or is it more of the situation where if we keep getting lots of chances, one of them is bound to work out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, gopper said: "volatile", "complicated" Aren't those adjectives that tend to not work out so well for Mid-atlantic area? Or is it more of the situation where if we keep getting lots of chances, one of them is bound to work out? Gotta be on the playing field to have a chance ... it's a simple law of percentages: more chances, higher probability that something might pop 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 hour ago, poolz1 said: CMC with a good look at the end of the run... Kind of knit picking here, but again, that blocking (as modeled) is too far east for us to get the amplification we need. It will change though so that’s good lol eta: and also close to a 50/50 but it’s not connected. Partly due to the position of blocking in East-Greenland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Still in the game for Christmas, I suppose 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2020 Author Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 minute ago, Dabuckeyes said: Still in the game for Christmas, I suppose I like how there are about 6 members with 4"+ for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Euro still wants absolutely nothing to do with a white Christmas 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 I know its not perfect, but there will be a lot of tracking into Jan. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro still wants absolutely nothing to do with a white Christmas Bah 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Not sure I wanna get sucked into this "potential"... Last week of December is a historically bad time for us to get good snow (more than a couple inches). If you look at our snow history...I don't recall seeing any dates between Dec 26th and Jan. 9th where we got WSW level stuff at BWI/DCA (anybody got any record on that?) I'm not sure whether it's just coincidence or what...but for some reason we don't seem to get warning level snows during that time period. Would love for this trend to suddenly break this year though...It's 2020, so why not? Lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Not sure I wanna get sucked into this "potential"... Last week of December is a historically bad time for us to get good snow (more than a couple inches). If you look at our snow history...I don't recall seeing any dates between Dec 26th and Jan. 9th where we got WSW level stuff at BWI/DCA (anybody got any record on that?) I'm not sure whether it's just coincidence or what...but for some reason we don't seem to get warning level snows during that time period. Would love for this trend to suddenly break this year though...It's 2020, so why not? Lol Are you sure you meant to go all the way to January 9th? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Euro is at least interesting. I don’t like the chances of snow Christmas Eve but you never know. It’s the Monday system that’s intriguing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Not sure I wanna get sucked into this "potential"... Last week of December is a historically bad time for us to get good snow (more than a couple inches). If you look at our snow history...I don't recall seeing any dates between Dec 26th and Jan. 9th where we got WSW level stuff at BWI/DCA (anybody got any record on that?) I'm not sure whether it's just coincidence or what...but for some reason we don't seem to get warning level snows during that time period. Would love for this trend to suddenly break this year though...It's 2020, so why not? Lol Is WSW the bar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Euro is at least interesting. I don’t like the chances of snow Christmas Eve but you never know. It’s the Monday system that’s intriguing yup.. get a good track and worry about temp and p-types later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Euro getting closer for the DT storm (12/29). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, gymengineer said: Are you sure you meant to go all the way to January 9th? I had the blizzard of '96 in mind...but I see I was off by a couple days--so Jan 6th! But I picked that date because that was the earliest in January we had ever gotten a big hit (I think)--kinda unusual (usually our hits come from mid-January through President's day, and the occasional March hit). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Is WSW the bar? I'd like to think 5" is a reasonable bar to consider something noteworthy. It's been my bar since I missed it by .2 inches in 2019, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I had the blizzard of '96 in mind...but I see I was off by a couple days--so Jan 6th! But I picked that date because that was the earliest in January we had ever gotten a big hit (I think)--kinda unusual (usually our hits come from mid-January through President's day, and the occasional March hit). I remember getting a foot of snow on new years day one year.. not sure which year it was.. but it happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 43 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: Kind of knit picking here, but again, that blocking (as modeled) is too far east for us to get the amplification we need. It will change though so that’s good lol eta: and also close to a 50/50 but it’s not connected. Partly due to the position of blocking in East-Greenland It's too far east to get a HECS probably but we can get a good old regular snowstorm with blocking there. We focus way too much on the HECS look. That look is super rare...happens only a handful of times a decade and if were lucky a couple hit. But MOST, by a LARGE %, of our snowfall comes during good but not PERFECT patterns with slight flaws. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I had the blizzard of '96 in mind...but I see I was off by a couple days--so Jan 6th! But I picked that date because that was the earliest in January we had ever gotten a big hit (I think)--kinda unusual (usually our hits come from mid-January through President's day, and the occasional March hit). Dec 26, 2012 was about 6” here followed by sleet and freezing rain. That was the Chill storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 16 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Is WSW the bar? Can't speak for Maestro, but Balt City peeps are still chasing their first verified Warning-level snowfall since Jan. 2016 (no, we did not get there in the Jan. 2019 dealie). For my part, I would like a Watch into a Warning that verifies for Balt City. Been quite awhile up here... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 22 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Not sure I wanna get sucked into this "potential"... Last week of December is a historically bad time for us to get good snow (more than a couple inches). If you look at our snow history...I don't recall seeing any dates between Dec 26th and Jan. 9th where we got WSW level stuff at BWI/DCA (anybody got any record on that?) I'm not sure whether it's just coincidence or what...but for some reason we don't seem to get warning level snows during that time period. Would love for this trend to suddenly break this year though...It's 2020, so why not? Lol Well, that may be true about the last week or so of December, climatologically. But then again, people said kinda the same thing about the 3rd week of January, that we never get any good snows around that time. Then there was some kind of event...oh...sometime about Jan. 22-23, 2016 I seem to recall?? I'm just joking with you, of course, for fun! Not saying a Jan. 2016 redux should be expected or will occur (but we'd take that!), but maybe we can crack through the dearth of WSW snows the last week of December! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Dec 26, 2012 was about 6” here followed by sleet and freezing rain. That was the Chill storm Got no such thing here...total inches at BWI that December is 1.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Well, that may be true about the last week or so of December, climatologically. But then again, people said kinda the same thing about the 3rd week of January, that we never get any good snows around that time. Then there was some kind of event...oh...sometime about Jan. 22-23, 2016 I seem to recall?? I'm just joking with you, of course, for fun! Not saying a Jan. 2016 redux should be expected or will occur (but we'd take that!), but maybe we can crack through the dearth of WSW snows the last week of December! Ha, well I don't know who was saying that about the 3rd week of January...because if you look at our history that around the time when the money period starts! But yes, as WSW breakthrough would be nice! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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