December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[PivotPoint]

I wouldn’t agree that the period we’re entering into is a “classic” look. Trough through California and a weak high to our north will probably fail more times then not. I do like though how there seems to be a consistent reload of the general pattern after each vort pass over the next 7-10 days. I would agree that the 96 woof stuff is pretty ridiculous this far out. If someone with knowledge wants to do that be my guest, but his own peers will be like, “come on man”.

 

[poolz1]

Interesting to visualize... -A0 Dec and storm tracks like this would have to bode well for Jan. 

 

[WxUSAF]

Yeah, the pacific pattern is pretty meh going forward. Because of that, the blocking is mostly just trapping modified Pac air masses underneath. But the blocking gives us a lot of wiggle room to time up a transient -EPO and/or +PNA where we could score bigly. As @Bob Chill used to say, it usually takes 3-4 chances for us to score. Seems likely to me we get at least that many chances between now and ~Jan 2/3. I think something works out by then. Doesn’t mean Jan 96 redux, but with the blocking, potential is higher than usual for a major event.

[Heisy]

Y’all are setting yourselves up for failure comparing everything to 96. That was a great 6z run on the gfs. Probably the best look yet for dc/philly. Kind of want the first post Christmas storm to blow up now. Even if it’s rain could serve as 50/50. The storminess is relentless it seems and we have blocking. There’s just no way we don’t cash eventually (we’ll I guess there is lol), but it could be 10000x worst. 

[Heisy]

Not sure if it was mentioned, but the cmc did have a nice cold sourced HP with a 50/50 at the end of its run too. We just would prefer that incoming southwest energy to be a little less intense as it crosses the conus. 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Y’all are setting yourselves up for failure comparing everything to 96. That was a great 6z run on the gfs. Probably the best look yet for dc/philly. Kind of want the first post Christmas storm to blow up now. Even if it’s rain could serve as 50/50. The storminess is relentless it seems and we have blocking. There’s just no way we don’t cash eventually (we’ll I guess there is lol), but it could be 10000x worst. 

I’m just trying to wrap my head around a Philly guy saying Y’all.  

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, BristowWx said:

I’m just trying to wrap my head around a Philly guy saying Y’all.  

Shouldn't it be "Yo!!"?? 

[BristowWx]

Just now, Always in Zugzwang said:

Shouldn't it be "Yo!!"?? 

Yo...yoose...yo sausage munchers...pretty much anything else 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Y’all are setting yourselves up for failure comparing everything to 96. That was a great 6z run on the gfs. Probably the best look yet for dc/philly. Kind of want the first post Christmas storm to blow up now. Even if it’s rain could serve as 50/50. The storminess is relentless it seems and we have blocking. There’s just no way we don’t cash eventually (we’ll I guess there is lol), but it could be 10000x worst. 

Well, I don't think anyone here is seriously comparing stuff to '96...mostly commenting on DT's "best pattern since '96" remark, and mostly mocking it, from what I've read in here.  At any rate...yes...cannot argue with how active it looks post-Christmas, that's for sure!  And the pattern up-top might be at least somewhat conducive for something good in that time frame (even if the Pac is "meh").  Let's hope so!

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, BristowWx said:

Yo...yoose...yo sausage scrapple munchers...pretty much anything else 

FYP!  (for the record, I just cannot bring myself to eat the stuff!)

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

FYP!  (for the record, I just cannot bring myself to eat the stuff!)

Love scrapple.  Jersey transplant so pork roll and scrapple is a staple.  Just don’t ask what’s in either.  We gots chances coming up yo..all we can say for now

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, PivotPoint said:

I wouldn’t agree that the period we’re entering into is a “classic” look. Trough through California and a weak high to our north will probably fail more times then not. I do like though how there seems to be a consistent reload of the general pattern after each vort pass over the next 7-10 days. I would agree that the 96 woof stuff is pretty ridiculous this far out. If someone with knowledge wants to do that be my guest, but his own peers will be like, “come on man”.

Probably won't see a sustained PNA ridge this winter based on enso state. Admittedly the Nina looks to have peaked but we will likely be past prime climo by the time we see lag effect out West wrt the PNA. We will see transient ridging in that area as is evident in recent weeks. But as many including myself have stated earlier in the season, the main wild card will be AO and NAO ridging. Thus far we have seen a tendency for those regions to linger in negative territory. As long as we aren't seeing a sustained PAC firehose destroying any cold air sources,  we can score without a +PNA. I dont have specific examples handy attm but they have been posted here in the past. AO and NAO are far more important in this region for snowstorms than a PNA spike. And we can still get MECS in a -PNA especially if the pattern keeps reloading in the AO/NAO zones.

[Heisy]

I mean let’s be honest. Yoos guys have a similar climate to Georgia. I was trying to be more relatable haha. I don’t think I’ve ever used y’all in real life. Anyone know what time that new 12z jawn runs?

 

 

[mappy]

34 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Y’all are setting yourselves up for failure comparing everything to 96. That was a great 6z run on the gfs. Probably the best look yet for dc/philly. Kind of want the first post Christmas storm to blow up now. Even if it’s rain could serve as 50/50. The storminess is relentless it seems and we have blocking. There’s just no way we don’t cash eventually (we’ll I guess there is lol), but it could be 10000x worst. 

Really? Dammit, here I was gearing up for a repeat. Thanks for showing us the light! 

[frd]

41 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Interesting to visualize... -A0 Dec and storm tracks like this would have to bode well for Jan. 

 

Hopefully it does bode well for January. I am wondering whether any effects from say a relocation of the PV , displacement event, PV elongation, etc.  may get us into a improved source region without depending on a -EPO. Total speculation here but there are some interesting animation regarding the NH PV and how it evolves over the next 15 days. Here are some still images of the forecasted GFS NH polar vortex ellipse. 

Also a great reference site :   https://stratobserve.com/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[BristowWx]

6 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I mean let’s be honest. Yoos guys have a similar climate to Georgia. I was trying to be more relatable haha. I don’t think I’ve ever used y’all in real life. Anyone know what time that new 12z jawn runs?

 

 

That would make you update SC.  Funny almost everyone in my neighborhood is from up there somewhere.  Seems you have to go to EZF to find real VA y,all country.   I haven’t seen blocking like what is being modeled since I went on that all cheese diet last year.  Timing and luck combined with pattern hopefully gets it done. 

[SnowDreamer]

Trying to learn to read more than clown maps and skew-t charts here... can someone explain to me why this doesn’t pan out? 00z euro has a big block in the North Atlantic, closed ULL, and surface low tracking to our south. There’s tons of HP around that I feel like should force cold air down into the storm, and something kinda 50/50 ish(maybe a bit too far out to sea)? Looks not bad to me but verbatim we rain/zr. 
 

 

[osfan24]

I'm a relative novice, but to my eyes, it looks like a big trough in the west, so it's flooding the eastern half of the country with pacific air.

[WxUSAF]

@SnowDreamer, look a few panels earlier for where the high pressure to the northeast of us there originates. It’s down along the SE coast! It’s a hot flaming garbage airmass, that’s why it’s rain for everyone. That high to the northwest is legit, but it hasn’t arrived in time. It’s a weird and very unusual evolution. And nine days out so I wouldn’t hold your breath on it.

[Ralph Wiggum]

17 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said:

Trying to learn to read more than clown maps and skew-t charts here... can someone explain to me why this doesn’t pan out? 00z euro has a big block in the North Atlantic, closed ULL, and surface low tracking to our south. There’s tons of HP around that I feel like should force cold air down into the storm, and something kinda 50/50 ish(maybe a bit too far out to sea)? Looks not bad to me but verbatim we rain/zr. 
 

 

Because it is a model guidance at range and not going to nail the surface every time even with a good ul look. Guidance says this period has potential.

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

@SnowDreamer, look a few panels earlier for where the high pressure to the northeast of us there originates. It’s down along the SE coast! It’s a hot flaming garbage airmass, that’s why it’s rain for everyone. That high to the northwest is legit, but it hasn’t arrived in time. It’s a weird and very unusual evolution. And nine days out so I wouldn’t hold your breath on it.

When 2016 showed up at day 10 it was rain on the euro also.  Same reason...marginal airmass. We are getting closer to the part of climo where marginal air masses should work with a good track. 

[SnowGoose69]

24 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said:

Trying to learn to read more than clown maps and skew-t charts here... can someone explain to me why this doesn’t pan out? 00z euro has a big block in the North Atlantic, closed ULL, and surface low tracking to our south. There’s tons of HP around that I feel like should force cold air down into the storm, and something kinda 50/50 ish(maybe a bit too far out to sea)? Looks not bad to me but verbatim we rain/zr. 
 

 

Ridge out west too displaced to the east and not tall enough.  The only case I know of recently where that pattern produced was 12/25/10.  You need a nasty nasty west based block probably to get a DC to Boston snow event with that ridge that displaced east.  2/23/89 was somewhat close as well and we saw that largely failed for most areas other than the immediate coast 

[howrdcounty snow]

doesn't the GFS have this but only a short window of snow?? seems my observations are incorrect. My apologies

[North Balti Zen]

Snowgoose invoking the “storm”-of-infinite-sadness down this way - bad juju friend.

[poolz1]

@nj2va  Sounds like Deep Creek will be the place to be for Christmas.... Hopefully a few of those squalls will make their way over the mountains.  Would be sweet to see snow squall warnings popping up x-mas day. 

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Strong low pressure center and accompanying sfc cold front will
cross the area on Christmas Eve and will be accompanied by
heavy showers, potentially damaging winds, and as much as 2
inches of rain that could lead to flash flooding given saturated
soils from melting snow and very wet second half of the year
over central and southern MD. The showers could end as a very
brief period of snow showers before ending with minimal
accumulation outside of the Appalachians. However, strong CAA
late Thu night will result in rapidly falling temperatures with
a flash freeze possible. Very cold air aloft pouring in late Thu
night and Fri will result in steepening lapse rates and
potential squally weather over the mtns with intense snow
showers possible. Wind chills will also be a concern for the
mtns where sub-zero wind chills are possible and a very cold day
and night Fri-Fri night elsewhere.

[BristowWx]

Not just brief but very brief.  This is trending quite well. 

[George BM]

8 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

@nj2va  Sounds like Deep Creek will be the place to be for Christmas.... Hopefully a few of those squalls will make their way over the mountains.  Would be sweet to see snow squall warnings popping up x-mas day. 

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Strong low pressure center and accompanying sfc cold front will
cross the area on Christmas Eve and will be accompanied by
heavy showers, potentially damaging winds, and as much as 2
inches of rain that could lead to flash flooding given saturated
soils from melting snow and very wet second half of the year
over central and southern MD. The showers could end as a very
brief period of snow showers before ending with minimal
accumulation outside of the Appalachians. However, strong CAA
late Thu night will result in rapidly falling temperatures with
a flash freeze possible. Very cold air aloft pouring in late Thu
night and Fri will result in steepening lapse rates and
potential squally weather over the mtns with intense snow
showers possible. Wind chills will also be a concern for the
mtns where sub-zero wind chills are possible and a very cold day
and night Fri-Fri night elsewhere.

Some runs of the gfs yesterday, particularly the 12z and 18z runs, were aggressive with getting convective snow showers east of the mountains on Christmas morning. We'll see if it becomes more aggressive again and eventually if CAMs pick up on this closer in time.

[aldie 22]

I actually think if you saw accumulating snow last week you will see a bit on Christmas as well. I know that would be a kick in the pills for those that didn't but since most of them have decided to poo poo every model run and potential then the pills it is. Sorry guys

[nj2va]

10 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

@nj2va  Sounds like Deep Creek will be the place to be for Christmas.... Hopefully a few of those squalls will make their way over the mountains.  Would be sweet to see snow squall warnings popping up x-mas day. 

Yeah, upslope will be cranking (and likely will linger past Christmas depending on the setup).....it certainly bears watching the next few days but recent guidance has been hinting at snow showers across the area on Christmas Day which would certainly make for a festive mood.  I’ll be in NJ for Christmas (back in Deep Creek the day after) but I’m hoping this area sees some snow squalls.  

[mattie g]

2 hours ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Y’all are setting yourselves up for failure comparing everything to 96. That was a great 6z run on the gfs. Probably the best look yet for dc/philly. Kind of want the first post Christmas storm to blow up now. Even if it’s rain could serve as 50/50. The storminess is relentless it seems and we have blocking. There’s just no way we don’t cash eventually (we’ll I guess there is lol), but it could be 10000x worst. 

Who's comparing everything to 1996?

Edit: Sorry...I see now that I'm beating a dead horse. My bad.