WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 hour ago, csnavywx said: Regardless of the post-frontal stuff (which I find it hard to get excited about -- post-frontal setups rarely produce much), those soundings and the position of the cold pool aloft look somewhat favorable for snow showers on Christmas Day proper. Very cold temps aloft. Might be enough weak surface-based instability to kick off some popcorn snow showers ahead of the mid-level vort. Yeah, I think this might be the better chance for Xmas flakes. Hard to give the post-frontal snow a ton of credence when the GFS is on an island at D4... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 43 minutes ago, Ji said: Gfs finally has dt woof Euro was really close D8-9. Has this weird frontal timing so it's rain for everyone, but just need to time the cold air a little more like the GFS or GGEM. Lots of chances post-Xmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro was really close D8-9. Has this weird frontal timing so it's rain for everyone, but just need to time the cold air a little more like the GFS or GGEM. Lots of chances post-Xmas. EPS looked better timing-wise, so that's encouraging at least. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 30 minutes ago, CAPE said: Pretty classic setup verbatim. Best since ‘96 2 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 26 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Best since ‘96 Wasnt 2010 wall to wall good pattern too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 12 minutes ago, 40westwx said: Wasnt 2010 wall to wall good pattern too? I can’t tell if this is continuing the joke or if you missed rhe pages of digression yesterday... it works either way actually. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 The consistency and the depth portrayed regarding the - AO and the - NAO for the rest of this month and the first week of January are really stunning. Added to this is the ongoing warming up top and you have to really wonder what we may achieve at the lowest point of the - AO phase. This is pretty crazy looking. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 20 minutes ago, 40westwx said: Wasnt 2010 wall to wall good pattern too? You late bro. And can we let the DT hype talk go now? He took his ball and went home. Let him do his thing. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 7 hours ago, psuhoffman said: If it obliterates my healthy snowpack only to replace it with a fraction that’s not exactly a win. I’d rather simply avoid the 12 hour torch and keep my current snow lol. But for those not with snow OTG I can see the excitement. I saw the snowpack up your way on Saturday when I was in Hampstead. Really nice start to the season up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: You late bro. And can we let the DT hype talk go now? He took his ball and went home. Let him do his thing. At this point it is not DT hype.. its kinda GFS and Euro/ good pattern.. there are a lot of chances hype.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 15 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: I can’t tell if this is continuing the joke or if you missed rhe pages of digression yesterday... it works either way actually. New target for Leesburgtownville? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 minute ago, H2O said: New target for Leesburgtownville? That's Leesbykesville 20 to you kind sir 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 37 minutes ago, 40westwx said: Wasnt 2010 wall to wall good pattern too? Terrible. Got lucky 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 And we were all thinking it would be worse. Glad the potential is there, and some have already taken advantage of it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 17 minutes ago, CAPE said: You late bro. And can we let the DT hype talk go now? He took his ball and went home. Let him do his thing. You aren’t new here. We never let anything go. There’s still stuff throw out here from 10 years ago. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 I wouldn’t agree that the period we’re entering into is a “classic” look. Trough through California and a weak high to our north will probably fail more times then not. I do like though how there seems to be a consistent reload of the general pattern after each vort pass over the next 7-10 days. I would agree that the 96 woof stuff is pretty ridiculous this far out. If someone with knowledge wants to do that be my guest, but his own peers will be like, “come on man”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Interesting to visualize... -A0 Dec and storm tracks like this would have to bode well for Jan. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Yeah, the pacific pattern is pretty meh going forward. Because of that, the blocking is mostly just trapping modified Pac air masses underneath. But the blocking gives us a lot of wiggle room to time up a transient -EPO and/or +PNA where we could score bigly. As @Bob Chill used to say, it usually takes 3-4 chances for us to score. Seems likely to me we get at least that many chances between now and ~Jan 2/3. I think something works out by then. Doesn’t mean Jan 96 redux, but with the blocking, potential is higher than usual for a major event. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Y’all are setting yourselves up for failure comparing everything to 96. That was a great 6z run on the gfs. Probably the best look yet for dc/philly. Kind of want the first post Christmas storm to blow up now. Even if it’s rain could serve as 50/50. The storminess is relentless it seems and we have blocking. There’s just no way we don’t cash eventually (we’ll I guess there is lol), but it could be 10000x worst. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Not sure if it was mentioned, but the cmc did have a nice cold sourced HP with a 50/50 at the end of its run too. We just would prefer that incoming southwest energy to be a little less intense as it crosses the conus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said: Y’all are setting yourselves up for failure comparing everything to 96. That was a great 6z run on the gfs. Probably the best look yet for dc/philly. Kind of want the first post Christmas storm to blow up now. Even if it’s rain could serve as 50/50. The storminess is relentless it seems and we have blocking. There’s just no way we don’t cash eventually (we’ll I guess there is lol), but it could be 10000x worst. I’m just trying to wrap my head around a Philly guy saying Y’all. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Just now, BristowWx said: I’m just trying to wrap my head around a Philly guy saying Y’all. Shouldn't it be "Yo!!"?? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Just now, Always in Zugzwang said: Shouldn't it be "Yo!!"?? Yo...yoose...yo sausage munchers...pretty much anything else 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Y’all are setting yourselves up for failure comparing everything to 96. That was a great 6z run on the gfs. Probably the best look yet for dc/philly. Kind of want the first post Christmas storm to blow up now. Even if it’s rain could serve as 50/50. The storminess is relentless it seems and we have blocking. There’s just no way we don’t cash eventually (we’ll I guess there is lol), but it could be 10000x worst. Well, I don't think anyone here is seriously comparing stuff to '96...mostly commenting on DT's "best pattern since '96" remark, and mostly mocking it, from what I've read in here. At any rate...yes...cannot argue with how active it looks post-Christmas, that's for sure! And the pattern up-top might be at least somewhat conducive for something good in that time frame (even if the Pac is "meh"). Let's hope so! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Just now, BristowWx said: Yo...yoose...yo sausage scrapple munchers...pretty much anything else FYP! (for the record, I just cannot bring myself to eat the stuff!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: FYP! (for the record, I just cannot bring myself to eat the stuff!) Love scrapple. Jersey transplant so pork roll and scrapple is a staple. Just don’t ask what’s in either. We gots chances coming up yo..all we can say for now 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 hour ago, PivotPoint said: I wouldn’t agree that the period we’re entering into is a “classic” look. Trough through California and a weak high to our north will probably fail more times then not. I do like though how there seems to be a consistent reload of the general pattern after each vort pass over the next 7-10 days. I would agree that the 96 woof stuff is pretty ridiculous this far out. If someone with knowledge wants to do that be my guest, but his own peers will be like, “come on man”. Probably won't see a sustained PNA ridge this winter based on enso state. Admittedly the Nina looks to have peaked but we will likely be past prime climo by the time we see lag effect out West wrt the PNA. We will see transient ridging in that area as is evident in recent weeks. But as many including myself have stated earlier in the season, the main wild card will be AO and NAO ridging. Thus far we have seen a tendency for those regions to linger in negative territory. As long as we aren't seeing a sustained PAC firehose destroying any cold air sources, we can score without a +PNA. I dont have specific examples handy attm but they have been posted here in the past. AO and NAO are far more important in this region for snowstorms than a PNA spike. And we can still get MECS in a -PNA especially if the pattern keeps reloading in the AO/NAO zones. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 I mean let’s be honest. Yoos guys have a similar climate to Georgia. I was trying to be more relatable haha. I don’t think I’ve ever used y’all in real life. Anyone know what time that new 12z jawn runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 34 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Y’all are setting yourselves up for failure comparing everything to 96. That was a great 6z run on the gfs. Probably the best look yet for dc/philly. Kind of want the first post Christmas storm to blow up now. Even if it’s rain could serve as 50/50. The storminess is relentless it seems and we have blocking. There’s just no way we don’t cash eventually (we’ll I guess there is lol), but it could be 10000x worst. Really? Dammit, here I was gearing up for a repeat. Thanks for showing us the light! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 41 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Interesting to visualize... -A0 Dec and storm tracks like this would have to bode well for Jan. Hopefully it does bode well for January. I am wondering whether any effects from say a relocation of the PV , displacement event, PV elongation, etc. may get us into a improved source region without depending on a -EPO. Total speculation here but there are some interesting animation regarding the NH PV and how it evolves over the next 15 days. Here are some still images of the forecasted GFS NH polar vortex ellipse. Also a great reference site : https://stratobserve.com/ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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