December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[PivotPoint]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s not our most typical look but it’s worked before

Doesn’t that kind of suggest a more horizontal flow and less amplification for us? That WAR too is the type of confluence we’d like either, correct?

[psuhoffman]

Just now, PivotPoint said:

Doesn’t that kind of suggest a more horizontal flow and less amplification for us? That WAR too is the type of confluence we’d like either, correct?

That’s the H5 from the end of January 2000. 

[psuhoffman]

Euro doesn’t dive enough energy far enough south to do much for out Xmas wave idea. Just some flurries after the front unless you’re in the extreme NW parts of the region. 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EURO now in line with GFS with arrival of cold on Christmas.

[Weather Will]

I have zero expectations for more snow before Christmas but the models have not figured it out yet....compare WB 0z EURO to 12Z Friday 1 am.

[Huffwx]

26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s the H5 from the end of January 2000. 

We have high heights over Greenland but the block extends to near the Azores. 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I have zero expectations for more snow before Christmas but the models have not figured it out yet....compare WB 0z EURO to 12Z Friday 1 am.

Yeah to me seems to be enough ambiguity to deem Christmas flakes as a toss-up right now...I wonder if this is one of those ones where details that are usually ironed out Day 3 or sooner could give us a chance!

[nj2va]

52 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

My bigger worry for the post Xmas threat is a miller b screw job not cutter. I’m talking about the Dec 28 period. Anything after that is way too far out to worry about. 

I haven’t seen the surface maps but 12z Euro has a monster closed 500 low off ACY for 12/30. 

ETA:  Great Lakes low jumps off the coast of DE and strengthens as it heads to the cape.  Slams interior upstate NY.   Block exerting its influence on the GL low.

[Amped]

Can we buy a 50/50 low?

[snowman19]

4 minutes ago, Amped said:

Can we buy a 50/50 low?

You also need to buy a +PNA....there’s a full latitude trough on the west coast

[Maestrobjwa]

15 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I haven’t seen the surface maps but 12z Euro has a monster closed 500 low off ACY for 12/30. 

ETA:  Great Lakes low jumps off the coast of DE and strengthens as it heads to the cape.  Slams interior upstate NY.   Block exerting its influence on the GL low.

Alright I'm a bit confused here...GL lows are bad, right? And can't they impact a Miller B screwjob? My thoughts on this are a bit jumbled because all I can remember is the March 2018 Heartbreakers where that dang low dove down and screwed up the timing or something. @psuhoffman perhaps you can clarify what happened there?

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Don't invest in anything dude...lol

[chris21]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s not our most typical look but it’s worked before

There are a lot of people jumping to conclusions re: H5 looks that I don’t think are necessarily correct. If you read the extensive research PSU has some on the subject, you will find that more often than not... the pattern does not need to be perfect to get snow. In fact, most of our decent snow events do not have all of the following (+pna, -EPO, -NAO, -AO). The H5 looks being thrown out the GFS and the Euro in the extended are very workable, and with a few minor adjustments could really lead to a special period. I’d highly recommend everyone read PSUs research on the subject.

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Mean has a low along the coast  with blocking up top.

[JakkelWx]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Mean has a low along the coast  with blocking up top.

Yeah I saw the EPS mean. Banana high over top. I broke my own rule looking at the OP and not waiting for the ENS to come out

[ryanconway63]

Nice Setup via the OP day 10 on the Euro....low forming in Texas with a nice setup in the East...something to watch

[jaydreb]

The EPS mean is pretty pathetic though.  

[osfan24]

"Better than anything since 1996 blizzard."

[Amped]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

You also need to buy a +PNA....there’s a full latitude trough on the west coast

Yeah I'm not seeing seeing a perfect pattern there.  Troff in CA and ridge over TX gives little room for a low coming out of the gulf.

[CAPE]

29 minutes ago, Amped said:

Yeah I'm not seeing seeing a perfect pattern there.  Troff in CA and ridge over TX gives little room for a low coming out of the gulf.

How often do we see a perfect pattern? And when we do, how often does it actually produce? Asking for a friend.

[BristowWx]

Just now, CAPE said:

How often do we see a perfect pattern? And when we do, how often does it actually produce? Asking for a friend.

Never and never

[frd]

1 hour ago, osfan24 said:

"Better than anything since 1996 blizzard."

Certainly some of the looks that we saw back in the winter of 09 10 were incredible. I would never reference since xxxx. 

[frd]

1 hour ago, jaydreb said:

The EPS mean is pretty pathetic though.  

Just like last year, typical climo. Sigificance is when the mean is 6 or more inches.  Then let the dogs out. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, frd said:

Certainly some of the looks that we saw back in the winter of 09 10 were incredible. I would never reference since xxxx. 

I am not a DT fan, but I doubt that's exactly what he said. Without checking(because I really don't care enough to) I am guessing he was only considering Nina winters.

[chris21]

29 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I am not a DT fan, but I doubt that's exactly what he said. Without checking(because I really don't care enough to) I am guessing he was only considering Nina winters.

He actually said it’s the best look he’s seen overall since then. He references both 2009-2010 and the blizzard of 96 in the same sentence. He didn’t add any qualifiers.

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, chris21 said:

He actually said it’s the best look he’s seen overall since then. He references both 2009-2010 and the blizzard of 96 in the same sentence. He didn’t add any qualifiers.

Well then he is just another hypester, or a complete idiot(as he loves to call people).

[WxUSAF]

2 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

A few big hits in the day 8-10 on the Eps 

Just took a look at the mean. SLP and 500 look quite nice to me. Is everyone just being rationale about this being 8 days out and so not talking much about it?

Seems like we could see an evolution also where we hopefully get something around the 28th and that storm moves up under the block as a 50/50 for a chance around the 30th/31st. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Seems like it’s his opinion. How do you say someone’s opinion, especially someone with that level of knowledge and expertise, is wrong?

[WxUSAF]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Seems like it’s his opinion. How do you say someone’s opinion, especially someone with that level of knowledge and expertise, is wrong?

I don’t think it’s hyperbole to say the Atlantic side might be the best we’ve had since January 16. But the PAC is fair at best. Doesn’t seem hostile per se, but also not very supportive. So there’s certainly a big dog chance, but need to time things out west favorably with a more durable NAO block. 

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Just took a look at the mean. SLP and 500 look quite nice to me. Is everyone just being rationale about this being 8 days out and so not talking much about it?

Seems like we could see an evolution also where we hopefully get something around the 28th and that storm moves up under the block as a 50/50 for a chance around the 30th/31st. 

It’s because an OP model at 200 hours out isn’t painting 18-36” across the area so this supposed blocking pattern is going down in flames even before the pattern sets in.  People need their digital snow fix it seems.