The Porkchop Express Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Icon looks improved too far Christmas front (new 12z run) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 After Christmas....woof 2 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 GFS trending the wrong way for xmas snow. Also gives us a nice rainy coastal a few days later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: GFS trending the wrong way for xmas snow. Also gives us a nice rainy coastal a few days later. I’ve see this before I think...lol that would be extra painful but good thing it’s an eternity away 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: After Christmas....woof The week or two after Xmas look primed for a big East Coast storm. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Mothman? ....or boobs ? Def boobs 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 28 minutes ago, LP08 said: I’ve see this before I think...lol that would be extra painful but good thing it’s an eternity away OP at range, but it's almost the exact same location as the last of debacle. Really looking to achieve offshore ideal track, hopefully upstream blocking will shake things up. Also this regarding the 25th. Ethan Sacoransky @blizzardof96 · 8m Model guidance will continue to struggle with the #Christmas system. The storm energy is currently located over a data sparse region of the north pacific & is embedded within a broad/complex jet streak. The energy is incident on the west coast by Monday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 GFS ops have insisted on the monster block developing after the x-mas frontal passage.....and reloads it this run. Ens up to now seem pretty muted....you would think there would be a better signal. Wait and see... eta: 12z gefs sniffing it out now.... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 21 minutes ago, poolz1 said: GFS ops have insisted on the monster block developing after the x-mas frontal passage.....and reloads it this run. Ens up to now seem pretty muted....you would think there would be a better signal. Wait and see... eta: 12z gefs sniffing it out now.... If that verifies I know the Op gfs shows that low inland, but we’d def be able to pinch that H5 low farther southeast. Long way to go. Could be a mirage, could be a signal.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 25 minutes ago, poolz1 said: GFS ops have insisted on the monster block developing after the x-mas frontal passage.....and reloads it this run. Ens up to now seem pretty muted....you would think there would be a better signal. Wait and see... Also pondering data sparse regions with some of these Northern disturbances and last minute model swings. HM did mention if blocking develops robustly as the models indicate it could lead to interesting low latitude winter storm analogs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 @poolz1 was just coming to say that GEFS definitely has some support for a storm running to our south with a cold high to the north around D9. Not much more to say at this point. ~D12 or so also. Pattern looks active AF from Xmas onward with a stout -NAO and -AO. Rest up now.. 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: @poolz1 was just coming to say that GEFS definitely has some support for a storm running to our south with a cold high to the north around D9. Not much more to say at this point. ~D12 or so also. Pattern looks active AF from Xmas onward with a stout -NAO and -AO. Rest up now.. Really does look active! Right as start entering prime climo too.... The fact that we had nothing last year and it being the first threat of the season....I am still recuperating from the last track..lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 hour ago, frd said: OP at range, but it's almost the exact same location as the last of debacle. Really looking to achieve offshore ideal track, hopefully upstream blocking will shake things up. Also this regarding the 25th. Ethan Sacoransky @blizzardof96 · 8m Model guidance will continue to struggle with the #Christmas system. The storm energy is currently located over a data sparse region of the north pacific & is embedded within a broad/complex jet streak. The energy is incident on the west coast by Monday evening. Thanks for the data, good info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 2 hours ago, losetoa6 said: Mothman? ....or boobs ? Or squidward...Polar vortex on that run lookin like: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 31 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Ukmet believes in the Xmas miracle It did look more progressive, any maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Good to see the latest GEFS runs building the NA ridging further NW closer to the classic position in the LR. I figured we would see that adjustment, with so many recent op runs depicting a perfectly placed monster of a west based -NAO. EPS still has the +heights focused a bit too far east but seems to be incrementally improving as well. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 3 hours ago, losetoa6 said: Mothman? ....or boobs ? I was thinking owl 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 14 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: It did look more progressive, any maps? The way-too-far-out snow maps show 1-2 inches of snow area wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 fantasy land OP GFS is starting to latch on to very cold intrusions into the U.S after a SSW. Good god that block. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 hour ago, LP08 said: I’ve see this before I think...lol that would be extra painful but good thing it’s an eternity away Stop hugging the surface maps. H5 argues strongly against this, especially the ens mean. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Stop hugging the surface maps. H5 argues strongly against this, especially the ens mean. Lol yikes. Trust me I’m not. I thought it was funny since it was basically identical. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Well it should be windy on Xmas day. I excel at wind as many of you do. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 985 slp over east Pa Xmas day . I'll take a dynamic rain to frozen Xmas 100 times over before I choose a 65F torch . Thats huge difference from the previous run. That low develops as a trailing low on the front.. previous run it was just some anafront snow. I would keep an eye on this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Initial low goes through the lakes and another forms much further south on the front . I a couple of trends in the right direction and we are in the game 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 minute ago, 40westwx said: I a couple of trends in the right direction and we are in the game It’s because I’m coming home for Christmas 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: It’s because I’m coming home for Christmas Now it’s a party! Welcome home brother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Now it’s a party! Welcome home brother. You guys are brothers and sisters, always feel at home here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Soooooooooo 2020. I plan a trip to VT for a white Christmas and I may be getting a tropical rainstorm while at home, it snows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Euro tries to cut a storm day 9 and block days nope. Forces a transfer from the Great Lakes to off SC lol. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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