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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


yoda
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1 minute ago, jaydreb said:

GFS trending the wrong way for xmas snow.  Also gives us a nice rainy coastal a few days later.  

I’ve see this before I think...lol

 

that would be extra painful but good thing it’s an eternity away

33FE0EF7-23D9-4D73-86DD-D9B91F5721EA.png

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28 minutes ago, LP08 said:

I’ve see this before I think...lol

 

that would be extra painful but good thing it’s an eternity away

33FE0EF7-23D9-4D73-86DD-D9B91F5721EA.png

OP  at range, but it's almost the exact same location as the last of debacle.

Really looking to achieve offshore ideal track, hopefully upstream blocking will shake things up. 

Also this regarding the 25th. 

Model guidance will continue to struggle with the #Christmas
 
Christmas_2020.png
system. The storm energy is currently located over a data sparse region of the north pacific & is embedded within a broad/complex jet streak. The energy is incident on the west coast by Monday evening.
 
 
Image
 
Image
 
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21 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

GFS ops have insisted on the monster block developing after the x-mas frontal passage.....and reloads it this run.  Ens up to now seem pretty muted....you would think there would be a better signal.  Wait and see...

eta:  12z gefs sniffing it out now....

bDJmIZi.png

If that verifies I know the Op gfs shows that low inland, but we’d def be able to pinch that H5 low farther southeast. Long way to go. Could be a mirage, could be a signal....

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25 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

GFS ops have insisted on the monster block developing after the x-mas frontal passage.....and reloads it this run.  Ens up to now seem pretty muted....you would think there would be a better signal.  Wait and see...

Also pondering data sparse regions with some of these Northern disturbances and last minute model swings. 

HM did mention if blocking develops robustly as the models indicate it could lead  to interesting low latitude winter storm analogs. 

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

@poolz1 was just coming to say that GEFS definitely has some support for a storm running to our south with a cold high to the north around D9. Not much more to say at this point. ~D12 or so also. 
 

Pattern looks active AF from Xmas onward with a stout -NAO and -AO. Rest up now..

Really does look active!  Right as start entering prime climo too....

The fact that we had nothing last year and it being the first threat of the season....I am still recuperating from the last track..lol  

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1 hour ago, frd said:

OP  at range, but it's almost the exact same location as the last of debacle.

Really looking to achieve offshore ideal track, hopefully upstream blocking will shake things up. 

Also this regarding the 25th. 

Model guidance will continue to struggle with the #Christmas
 
Christmas_2020.png
system. The storm energy is currently located over a data sparse region of the north pacific & is embedded within a broad/complex jet streak. The energy is incident on the west coast by Monday evening.
 
 
Image
 
Image
 

Thanks for the data, good info

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Good to see the latest GEFS runs building the NA ridging further NW closer to the classic position in the LR. I figured we would see that adjustment, with so many recent op runs depicting a perfectly placed monster of a west based -NAO. EPS still has the +heights focused a bit too far east but seems to be incrementally improving as well.

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7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

985 slp over east Pa Xmas day . 

ecmwf-deterministic-ma-mslp_anom-8940800.png

I'll take a dynamic rain to frozen Xmas 100 times over before I choose a 65F torch .

Thats  huge difference from the previous run.  That low develops as a trailing low on the front.. previous run it was just some anafront snow.  

I would keep an eye on this one...

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