BristowWx Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 minute ago, yoda said: Still there on the 00z GFS... but the SLP develops a little earlier and is a bit faster than the 18z GFS run... which cuts down on the snow totals Imagine that’s not the final version of this story being a week out. Interesting evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 19, 2020 Author Share Posted December 19, 2020 Powerful cold front nonetheless... at 138 its 57 degrees at DCA... at 141 its 33 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 19, 2020 Author Share Posted December 19, 2020 Very cold Christmas Day however... highs are 15 in the mountains to maybe 25 in the cities across the LWX CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Just now, yoda said: Very cold Christmas Day however... highs are 15 in the mountains to maybe 25 in the cities across the LWX CWA Still should get some flakes out of that. How many? Who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 19, 2020 Author Share Posted December 19, 2020 Just now, losetoa6 said: Higher snow totals in the northern and far western zones . I'm just glad it's still there. It would have been a nice hit for all if the SLP was a bit slower/developed a bit later. As you said, it's still there and we've got 144 hours of fun to invest in this event lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Still should get some flakes out of that. How many? Who knows? Still there and holding consistency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Just now, losetoa6 said: Higher snow totals in the northern and far western zones . I'm just glad it's still there. If temps start out in the 50s it might be a lot asking for a changeover to accumulating snow, assuming the front is gonna plow through as advertised. Well need a low to develop along the front. Idk if that’s really our setup but would still be cool to end as snow showers or a period of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 19, 2020 Author Share Posted December 19, 2020 11 minutes ago, 87storms said: If temps start out in the 50s it might be a lot asking for a changeover to accumulating snow, assuming the front is gonna plow through as advertised. Well need a low to develop along the front. Idk if that’s really our setup but would still be cool to end as snow showers or a period of snow. A low does develop along the front and deepens as it goes north... is at 988mb in S VA as it gets ready to move by us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 I’d take those snow maps with a large grain of salt. Even if it happened as depicted on the GFS, it won’t accumulate just like the maps show...cut those back a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Who knows if we will end up on the right side of this but it looks one heck of a dynamic frontal passage. Add in a strong low rocketing N at the same time. Temps plummeting through the 20's with very heavy snow and strong gusts....accumulation wouldnt be an issue verbatim. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 16 minutes ago, 87storms said: If temps start out in the 50s it might be a lot asking for a changeover to accumulating snow, assuming the front is gonna plow through as advertised. Well need a low to develop along the front. Idk if that’s really our setup but would still be cool to end as snow showers or a period of snow. Look more like a squall line. Those can be fun for minutes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 19, 2020 Author Share Posted December 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: I’d take those snow maps with a large grain of salt. Even if it happened as depicted on the GFS, it won’t accumulate just like the maps show...cut those back a bit. Quite true -- and you are right re the snow maps considering the last "storm" lol. However, once we change to snow, its going to be a real heavy wet snow, which will stick to everything quickly IMO. Be it 1 inch or 5 inches... its going to cause issues. And there is going to be a powerful LLJ with this system as well, which LWX covered in their afternoon AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, yoda said: A low does develop along the front and deepens as it goes north... is at 988mb in S VA as it gets ready to move by us Yea I just meant a low that doesn’t develop too late. I know we can score with stalled out fronts but those Jan 2011 type events are tough here. Too early to tell either way, but it does look like a dynamic system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 CMC is way slower and not interesting. But it’s much different than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 minute ago, yoda said: Quite true -- and you are right re the snow maps considering the last "storm" lol. However, once we change to snow, its going to be a real heavy wet snow, which will stick to everything quickly IMO. Be it 1 inch or 5 inches... its going to cause issues. And there is going to be a powerful LLJ with this system as well, which LWX covered in their afternoon AFD. It certainly looks like a fun, dynamic system. But yeah, I was more referring to the ‘ZOMG GFS snow maps gives me 5” on Christmas Eve!!!!” - if things go as depicted by the GFS, we’d see some snow for sure but in these setups, I’m always skeptical of the snow maps. As i pointed out earlier today, this year is way more interesting than last winter by far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: CMC is way slower and not interesting. But it’s much different than 12z This is when you know that this will be another case of models finally getting it right but only under 48 hours.. that's just under a week from now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 10 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: This is when you know that this will be another case of models finally getting it right but only under 48 hours.. that's just under a week from now... Yeah. Beats tracking a giant heat blob and hoping east winds will save you from a warm green Xmas. This will be fun regardless. Some sort of strong cold front is at least likely... I think. That’s about all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Reminds me of a Christmas 1993 redux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 19, 2020 Author Share Posted December 19, 2020 Not quite sure where 00z UKIE is going at 144 tbh... 1030 HP in S MN with a SLP of 1005mb near Mobile Bay, AL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 19, 2020 Author Share Posted December 19, 2020 2m Temp on 00z GFS at 1am on Christmas Day: 25 degrees 2m Temp on 00z EURO at 1am on Christmas Day: 59 degrees 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 19, 2020 Author Share Posted December 19, 2020 It will change... but its fun to see the bolded Zone Forecast Product National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 341 AM EST Sat Dec 19 2020 DCZ001-VAZ054-191200- District of Columbia-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Including the cities of Washington, Arlington, Alexandria, and Falls Church 341 AM EST Sat Dec 19 2020 .REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. North winds around 5 mph. .TODAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s. Light and variable winds, becoming south around 5 mph in the afternoon. .TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. South winds around 5 mph. .SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain and snow showers in the morning. Patchy fog. Highs in the lower 40s. South winds around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. South winds around 5 mph in the evening, becoming light and variable. .MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s. .MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in the mid 30s. Chance of rain 40 percent. .TUESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 40s. .TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows around 30. .WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 40s. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. .THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs in the mid 50s. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Lows in the upper 20s. .CHRISTMAS DAY...Mostly sunny with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Cooler with highs in the mid 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 For those into snow maps, both the GEFS and EPS have an inch or less for late next week, exception being the western highlands ofc. Still 5+ days out with some variations in play as usual. My guess is either rain followed by a quick shot of snow, or the usual rain on the warm side of the front followed by CAA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Latest take from Mount Holly- Thursday into Friday the upper level low that was over the central United States is forecast to merge with another upper level disturbance diving south out of central Canada. The GFS has these two waves constructively interfering with one another with rapid deepening forecast. The ECMWF shows something similar, but is slightly slower. The CMC is by far the slowest here. Either way, the upper level dynamics with this system look very impressive with a 150 kt jet streak and accompanying 150/300 m height falls. Latest forecast soundings show a very impressive veered wind profile. The LLJ is also very impressive, with the 925/850 mb layer average forecast to be around 70 kts. Out ahead of the approaching cold front showers and some embedded thunder will be possible, with a change over to snow on the backside of the cold front also possible. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Looks like the severe thread might get a little action lol. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Looks like the severe thread might get a little action lol.Yep this is going to be a disaster 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 38 minutes ago, CAPE said: Looks like the severe thread might get a little action lol. Yep this is going to be a disaster Yep a nice rainy Christmas with mid to upper 50's sounds about normal to me. Throw in a flash flood and a few tornados while we are at it. At least December 26th will be cold when everyone's power will be out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: Yep a nice rainy Christmas with mid to upper 50's sounds about normal to me. Throw in a flash flood and a few tornados while we are at it. At least December 26th will be cold when everyone's power will be out. We are never that exciting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Place me in the euro camp. IMO there will be no low on a front. There will be a low dragging a front through. We will get warmer than forecast in front of it, it will rain, the front will come through, the wind will exceed expectations, the temps will fall short of modeled lows. This is not the type of setup we have much of a chance with. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Place me in the I HATE CHRISTMAS camp. IMO there will be no low on a front. There will be a low dragging a front through. We will get warmer than forecast in front of it, it will rain, the front will come through, the wind will exceed expectations, the temps will fall short of modeled lows. This is not the type of setup we have much of a chance with. FYP 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 49 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Yep a nice rainy Christmas with mid to upper 50's sounds about normal to me. Throw in AS MUCH ALCOHOL AS I CAN GET and a few FEW SHITTY PRESENTS while we are at it. At least December 26th will be cold when everyone's power will be out, WHEN IM HUNG OVER AND TRYING TO TAKE THAT CRAP BACK. FYP 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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