CAPE Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Just now, losetoa6 said: Gfs HH would be a fun xmas eve tracking system imo . Anafrontal Xmas miracle.. game still on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Gonna start believing Sunday, after Football team win 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Gfs HH would be a fun xmas eve tracking system imo . Way more interesting events to track than last year. We were staring at one awful look after another this time last year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 GFS Still has it, other models trend to bring the Low through before the cold sets in.....small changes can make big differences....will be fun to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 18, 2020 Author Share Posted December 18, 2020 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: 2-4" as is for many 3-6 on Kuchera lol 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 58 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: As Morrissey has said, some Nina’s are bigger than others. And some ninas’ madres are bigger than other ninas’ madres. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 18, 2020 Author Share Posted December 18, 2020 highs in the 10s/20s for Christmas Day per HH GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 18, 2020 Author Share Posted December 18, 2020 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Low looks a bit east of where it was at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 I’m guarded against being interested, but my outer weenie wants it so bad. I think it’s possible - we’ve shown it before - but I’d absolutely prefer a small overrunning 2-4” event than trying to get this thing to work. That said, it would truly be the Christmas weenie miracle of all Christmas weenie miracles were it to occur, and I don’t think ANY of us would forget it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Holy crap look at the zr totals on GFS. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 These situations always work for us. Im excited! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 14 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: I swear I saw a Low forecasted there recently! LOL! That would be heavy downpours transitioning to marshmallow bombs with accums. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Just now, snowfan said: These situations always work for us. Im excited! There's no way this can fail. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 GFS shows 0.85” zr in the DC and central Maryland and northern Virginia area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 1 hour ago, Fozz said: How is all of this, especially the STJ, happening in a borderline strong Niña? It all sounds way too good to be true, and something I’d expect from a Modoki Niño. There are theories that the warming SST profile overall in conjunction with some anomalies we didn’t used to see concurrently has muted typical enso response recently. 1 hour ago, anotherman said: I’m pretty sure it’s because the Nina is dying. Someone posted information about it earlier.... I’m in the Frd camp that usually there is a lag to enso but it’s possible that the weaker then expected peak along with anomalous warm pools in other places like the north PAC mute the Nina response the same way the nino response was muted in 2019. 58 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Enso is no longer the very reliable prediction tool it once was. On this we agree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 If the gfs is right about the wind many will be out of power...the Southerly wind on the coast is nuts. Widespread 60-70. NW wind behind the front 35-50 gusts with snow. Wild 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Not a bad look at day 10 hr264 . I was going to say the same. Good potential in that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 18, 2020 Author Share Posted December 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Probably need tighter spacing . Possibly a near miss this time more like the HP needs to move in better tandem... cutter appears at 282 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Just now, losetoa6 said: We are going to get tired of tracking frozen by the time January rolls around Not!!! Never. Maybe exhaustion sets in but no quit. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Not a bad look at day 10 hr264 . Monster east based nao block, 50/50. Pac side is meh....broad US trof. Would work tho with ao blocking and most of the country cold already. Plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 HH might be close to a weenie run look towards the end in fantasy range. Regardless, certainly alot more possibilities than last year at this time. Exciting times ahead. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 18z GEFS mean is an inch or less for the Xmas miracle(aka CAPE) storm. I need to work on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: 18z GEFS mean is an inch or less for the Xmas miracle(aka CAPE) storm. I need to work on this. Clever insert there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 33 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: We are going to get tired of tracking frozen by the time January rolls around Not!!! I might get tired of it by the end of next week if I don't actually see a few flakes. Or one, lets start with one. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Thats an pretty anomalous look in the 500 MB set up for Christmas.... seems to me that that could evolve in to a vigorous storm coming north out of the gulf. I would keep an eye out on that... jeez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Top two analogs for the CPC D11 super ensemble are both KUs...3rd is in January 1987. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif 6 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Top two analogs for the CPC D11 super ensemble are both KUs...3rd is in January 1987. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif Top analog was 12” at IAD and the second one was DCA’s highest Christmas Day snow depth of 7”, eventually tied by 12/09. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 On time I tapped out was after Snowmageddon. That was enough for me that winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 19, 2020 Author Share Posted December 19, 2020 Still there on the 00z GFS... but the SLP develops a little earlier and is a bit faster than the 18z GFS run... which cuts down on the snow totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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