psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 1 hour ago, Fozz said: How is all of this, especially the STJ, happening in a borderline strong Niña? It all sounds way too good to be true, and something I’d expect from a Modoki Niño. There are theories that the warming SST profile overall in conjunction with some anomalies we didn’t used to see concurrently has muted typical enso response recently. 1 hour ago, anotherman said: I’m pretty sure it’s because the Nina is dying. Someone posted information about it earlier.... I’m in the Frd camp that usually there is a lag to enso but it’s possible that the weaker then expected peak along with anomalous warm pools in other places like the north PAC mute the Nina response the same way the nino response was muted in 2019. 58 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Enso is no longer the very reliable prediction tool it once was. On this we agree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 If the gfs is right about the wind many will be out of power...the Southerly wind on the coast is nuts. Widespread 60-70. NW wind behind the front 35-50 gusts with snow. Wild 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Not a bad look at day 10 hr264 . I was going to say the same. Good potential in that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 18, 2020 Author Share Posted December 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Probably need tighter spacing . Possibly a near miss this time more like the HP needs to move in better tandem... cutter appears at 282 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Just now, losetoa6 said: We are going to get tired of tracking frozen by the time January rolls around Not!!! Never. Maybe exhaustion sets in but no quit. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Not a bad look at day 10 hr264 . Monster east based nao block, 50/50. Pac side is meh....broad US trof. Would work tho with ao blocking and most of the country cold already. Plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 HH might be close to a weenie run look towards the end in fantasy range. Regardless, certainly alot more possibilities than last year at this time. Exciting times ahead. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 18z GEFS mean is an inch or less for the Xmas miracle(aka CAPE) storm. I need to work on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: 18z GEFS mean is an inch or less for the Xmas miracle(aka CAPE) storm. I need to work on this. Clever insert there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 33 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: We are going to get tired of tracking frozen by the time January rolls around Not!!! I might get tired of it by the end of next week if I don't actually see a few flakes. Or one, lets start with one. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Thats an pretty anomalous look in the 500 MB set up for Christmas.... seems to me that that could evolve in to a vigorous storm coming north out of the gulf. I would keep an eye out on that... jeez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Top two analogs for the CPC D11 super ensemble are both KUs...3rd is in January 1987. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif 6 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Top two analogs for the CPC D11 super ensemble are both KUs...3rd is in January 1987. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif Top analog was 12” at IAD and the second one was DCA’s highest Christmas Day snow depth of 7”, eventually tied by 12/09. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 On time I tapped out was after Snowmageddon. That was enough for me that winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 19, 2020 Author Share Posted December 19, 2020 Still there on the 00z GFS... but the SLP develops a little earlier and is a bit faster than the 18z GFS run... which cuts down on the snow totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 minute ago, yoda said: Still there on the 00z GFS... but the SLP develops a little earlier and is a bit faster than the 18z GFS run... which cuts down on the snow totals Imagine that’s not the final version of this story being a week out. Interesting evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 19, 2020 Author Share Posted December 19, 2020 Powerful cold front nonetheless... at 138 its 57 degrees at DCA... at 141 its 33 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 19, 2020 Author Share Posted December 19, 2020 Very cold Christmas Day however... highs are 15 in the mountains to maybe 25 in the cities across the LWX CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Just now, yoda said: Very cold Christmas Day however... highs are 15 in the mountains to maybe 25 in the cities across the LWX CWA Still should get some flakes out of that. How many? Who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 19, 2020 Author Share Posted December 19, 2020 Just now, losetoa6 said: Higher snow totals in the northern and far western zones . I'm just glad it's still there. It would have been a nice hit for all if the SLP was a bit slower/developed a bit later. As you said, it's still there and we've got 144 hours of fun to invest in this event lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Still should get some flakes out of that. How many? Who knows? Still there and holding consistency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Just now, losetoa6 said: Higher snow totals in the northern and far western zones . I'm just glad it's still there. If temps start out in the 50s it might be a lot asking for a changeover to accumulating snow, assuming the front is gonna plow through as advertised. Well need a low to develop along the front. Idk if that’s really our setup but would still be cool to end as snow showers or a period of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 19, 2020 Author Share Posted December 19, 2020 11 minutes ago, 87storms said: If temps start out in the 50s it might be a lot asking for a changeover to accumulating snow, assuming the front is gonna plow through as advertised. Well need a low to develop along the front. Idk if that’s really our setup but would still be cool to end as snow showers or a period of snow. A low does develop along the front and deepens as it goes north... is at 988mb in S VA as it gets ready to move by us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 I’d take those snow maps with a large grain of salt. Even if it happened as depicted on the GFS, it won’t accumulate just like the maps show...cut those back a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Who knows if we will end up on the right side of this but it looks one heck of a dynamic frontal passage. Add in a strong low rocketing N at the same time. Temps plummeting through the 20's with very heavy snow and strong gusts....accumulation wouldnt be an issue verbatim. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 16 minutes ago, 87storms said: If temps start out in the 50s it might be a lot asking for a changeover to accumulating snow, assuming the front is gonna plow through as advertised. Well need a low to develop along the front. Idk if that’s really our setup but would still be cool to end as snow showers or a period of snow. Look more like a squall line. Those can be fun for minutes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 19, 2020 Author Share Posted December 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: I’d take those snow maps with a large grain of salt. Even if it happened as depicted on the GFS, it won’t accumulate just like the maps show...cut those back a bit. Quite true -- and you are right re the snow maps considering the last "storm" lol. However, once we change to snow, its going to be a real heavy wet snow, which will stick to everything quickly IMO. Be it 1 inch or 5 inches... its going to cause issues. And there is going to be a powerful LLJ with this system as well, which LWX covered in their afternoon AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, yoda said: A low does develop along the front and deepens as it goes north... is at 988mb in S VA as it gets ready to move by us Yea I just meant a low that doesn’t develop too late. I know we can score with stalled out fronts but those Jan 2011 type events are tough here. Too early to tell either way, but it does look like a dynamic system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 CMC is way slower and not interesting. But it’s much different than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 minute ago, yoda said: Quite true -- and you are right re the snow maps considering the last "storm" lol. However, once we change to snow, its going to be a real heavy wet snow, which will stick to everything quickly IMO. Be it 1 inch or 5 inches... its going to cause issues. And there is going to be a powerful LLJ with this system as well, which LWX covered in their afternoon AFD. It certainly looks like a fun, dynamic system. But yeah, I was more referring to the ‘ZOMG GFS snow maps gives me 5” on Christmas Eve!!!!” - if things go as depicted by the GFS, we’d see some snow for sure but in these setups, I’m always skeptical of the snow maps. As i pointed out earlier today, this year is way more interesting than last winter by far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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