frd Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 42 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: No shortage of chances for the foreseeable future. No real specific tracking threats at range yet...but keep those progged looks and we will connect soon enough. Encouraging to see HL blocking continue AND even more encouraging is the sudden stream of STJ activity being forecast. Anthony Masiello @antmasiello Replying to @griteater There are some interesting analogs that spring up in extended range with low latitude winter storms in them. What more can be said for the Northeast; it's on. 11:45 AM · Dec 18, 2020· Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, frd said: Anthony Masiello @antmasiello Replying to @griteater There are some interesting analogs that spring up in extended range with low latitude winter storms in them. What more can be said for the Northeast; it's on. 11:45 AM · Dec 18, 2020· Was just reading that thread...thought this response regarding the stj was interesting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 20 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Was just reading that thread...thought this response regarding the stj was interesting. Check out griteaters thread. Cool stuff going on near Greenland and hopefully retrograding blocking will manifest itself. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Damn .... game on ! Simon Lee @SimonLeeWx Nothing quite like seeing NASA's GEOS forecast a 240-hour lower-stratospheric heat flux event that would rank among the biggest ever observed for any time of year in MERRA2 reanalysis. https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/ann_data.html… 3:30 PM · Dec 18, 2020·Twitter Web App 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: No shortage of chances for the foreseeable future. No real specific tracking threats at range yet...but keep those progged looks and we will connect soon enough. Encouraging to see HL blocking continue AND even more encouraging is the sudden stream of STJ activity being forecast. How is all of this, especially the STJ, happening in a borderline strong Niña? It all sounds way too good to be true, and something I’d expect from a Modoki Niño. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Just now, Fozz said: How is all of this, especially the STJ, happening in a borderline strong Nina? As Morrissey has said, some Nina’s are bigger than others. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowproblem Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 10 minutes ago, frd said: Damn .... game on ! Simon Lee @SimonLeeWx Nothing quite like seeing NASA's GEOS forecast a 240-hour lower-stratospheric heat flux event that would rank among the biggest ever observed for any time of year in MERRA2 reanalysis. https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/ann_data.html… 3:30 PM · Dec 18, 2020·Twitter Web App What is a heat flux event? Is this the same sudden stratospheric warming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 How is all of this, especially the STJ, happening in a borderline strong Niña? It all sounds way too good to be true, and something I’d expect from a Modoki Niño.I’m pretty sure it’s because the Nina is dying. Someone posted information about it earlier.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 9 minutes ago, Fozz said: How is all of this, especially the STJ, happening in a borderline strong Niña? It all sounds way too good to be true, and something I’d expect from a Modoki Niño. Enso is no longer the very reliable prediction tool it once was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Mount Holly's (new) quick take on late week.. they did say to stay tuned lol. A cold front associated with the low will cross the area, ending the warmer temperatures and bringing a sudden return to Winter. Rains will likely change to snow and some accumulations are possible later Thu night and into Friday. Still a week away, so exact details will have to wait until we get closer, but this could affect travel during the upcoming holiday. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Both the 18z 12k and 3k Nam have mood flakes for eastern areas Sunday afternoon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 @showmethesnow is back! 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 18, 2020 Author Share Posted December 18, 2020 lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Just now, JakkelWx said: I swear I saw a Low forecasted there recently! LOL! 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Just now, losetoa6 said: Gfs HH would be a fun xmas eve tracking system imo . Anafrontal Xmas miracle.. game still on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Gonna start believing Sunday, after Football team win 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Gfs HH would be a fun xmas eve tracking system imo . Way more interesting events to track than last year. We were staring at one awful look after another this time last year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 GFS Still has it, other models trend to bring the Low through before the cold sets in.....small changes can make big differences....will be fun to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 18, 2020 Author Share Posted December 18, 2020 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: 2-4" as is for many 3-6 on Kuchera lol 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 58 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: As Morrissey has said, some Nina’s are bigger than others. And some ninas’ madres are bigger than other ninas’ madres. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 18, 2020 Author Share Posted December 18, 2020 highs in the 10s/20s for Christmas Day per HH GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 18, 2020 Author Share Posted December 18, 2020 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Low looks a bit east of where it was at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 I’m guarded against being interested, but my outer weenie wants it so bad. I think it’s possible - we’ve shown it before - but I’d absolutely prefer a small overrunning 2-4” event than trying to get this thing to work. That said, it would truly be the Christmas weenie miracle of all Christmas weenie miracles were it to occur, and I don’t think ANY of us would forget it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Holy crap look at the zr totals on GFS. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 These situations always work for us. Im excited! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 14 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: I swear I saw a Low forecasted there recently! LOL! That would be heavy downpours transitioning to marshmallow bombs with accums. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Just now, snowfan said: These situations always work for us. Im excited! There's no way this can fail. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 GFS shows 0.85” zr in the DC and central Maryland and northern Virginia area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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