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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


yoda
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3 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said:

I’m no expert, but we like the trend in tilt on the GFS for Christmas Eve, no? 

gfs_z500_vort_us_fh156_trend.gif

In general, I think this is the case.  At risk of over-analyzing something that's still a week out (but I'll do so anyhow, haha!)...note that at 06Z today there was more energy hanging back, which resulted in the surface reflection still coming up toward us just after the strong cold front passed.  It's not quite "as good" at 12Z as the low zips on to the north, but there's apparently a ton of lift along the front and (if you take verbatim), still gives a decent burst of snow.  Reminiscent of Feb. 14, 2015 as others have said, though perhaps on a more dramatic scale if this pans out as shown.

Regardless, that's one hella cold front breezing through!

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9 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said:

nope, the trend is for this low to develop and get north of us all before the front pushes through....Euro had same idea last night.....

Agreed. This is likely to tease us just enough but it's going to be one of those things where the precip is gone once the cold air gets here.

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