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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


yoda
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3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Ended up with 1.5” in mid November. Even DC got snow. 

From my notes:

November 15: 2.0” from a reeeeealy cold event for November

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

I recall it being pretty well forecast at least a couple days leading up to it. It was convective in nature but fairly widespread. Totals ranged from 1 to maybe as high as 4". I maximized here pretty good with over 3. It all fell in an hour or so, and the end had a mini whiteout as the actual arctic cold came in.

We didn’t get much here in Burke from that. I was (of course) salty as people reported getting smacked with intense rates and big winds. I don’t have my notes on that, but I don’t think we got more than 1” out of it (maybe less than that).

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3 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said:

I’m no expert, but we like the trend in tilt on the GFS for Christmas Eve, no? 

gfs_z500_vort_us_fh156_trend.gif

In general, I think this is the case.  At risk of over-analyzing something that's still a week out (but I'll do so anyhow, haha!)...note that at 06Z today there was more energy hanging back, which resulted in the surface reflection still coming up toward us just after the strong cold front passed.  It's not quite "as good" at 12Z as the low zips on to the north, but there's apparently a ton of lift along the front and (if you take verbatim), still gives a decent burst of snow.  Reminiscent of Feb. 14, 2015 as others have said, though perhaps on a more dramatic scale if this pans out as shown.

Regardless, that's one hella cold front breezing through!

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