Ralph Wiggum Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Seeing mention of anafront snows for next week. They rarely work out....most here know this. However, in my area NW of Philly we have had 2 anafront snows already this season. We almost never see it. Neither was anything to write home about. What's my point? There is a tendency already this winter for those anafront scenarios to work. If there was a year we could score on the backside of a front with a wave trailing, this is probably the one. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That vortex is keeping the central PAC ridge suppressed though. You’re right it’s preventing an epo ridge and cross polar flow but in runs that break that down the pac ridge pops and we end to with a trough in the west ridge east. I think I’ll take my chances with the WPO vortex and hope as Canada gets colder we can make die with N American domestic cold sources. Yeah if the AO cooperates we should be ok with cold that's 'good enough' as we move forward. Interestingly, the extended GEFS has suggested the WPO/EPO go negative from time to time, but then it backs off. When it has had that look though, the NA is also pretty good, and the overall h5 pattern looks remarkably favorable. lol probably why it keeps losing it- very unlikely to verify unless the Nina craps out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 On 11/24/2020 at 6:16 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: It was fun while it lasted lol yea it was i still got 3 to 5 inches nice to see a decent storm for once 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Sunday is still interesting Shortwave is a tad better on the 12z GFS. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Dusting to an inch on WB. No map until it gets to 2 inches!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: Shortwave is a tad better on the 12z GFS. If you squint hard enough you can see the Montgomery/Howard county deathband set up. Lol 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 I have a feeling that the CMC ( I know, I know...) is going to show a nice storm for Monday in the next few runs. It's been the strongest with the follow up wave and has been close to producing something. Seems like GFS is trying to follow those footsteps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: If you squint hard enough you can see the Montgomery/Howard county deathband set up. Lol The jet streak position is favorable(LF quad) and there is some moisture. Surface temps and timing probably the biggest issues for getting a skiff of snow.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 It just wants to snow here 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It just wants to snow here It just wants to rain here...a fart it all it takes. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Just now, CAPE said: It just wants to rain here...a fart it all it takes. Not for long my friend. Yours is coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It just wants to snow here I think at the very least we see some snow showers from that little clipper in Tuesday as well. Very active pattern coming up. GFS has more energy on the front this run as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Not for long my friend. Yours is coming Yup. In 2023. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 GFS HAS a Low over panhandle Florida 12 z Christmas Eve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 This 153 panel is really nice for the Shenandoah Valley: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 3 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Ended up with 1.5” in mid November. Even DC got snow. From my notes: November 15: 2.0” from a reeeeealy cold event for November 2 hours ago, CAPE said: I recall it being pretty well forecast at least a couple days leading up to it. It was convective in nature but fairly widespread. Totals ranged from 1 to maybe as high as 4". I maximized here pretty good with over 3. It all fell in an hour or so, and the end had a mini whiteout as the actual arctic cold came in. We didn’t get much here in Burke from that. I was (of course) salty as people reported getting smacked with intense rates and big winds. I don’t have my notes on that, but I don’t think we got more than 1” out of it (maybe less than that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Yep. Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Hard to be mad at. 2-6" event on Christmas. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 That’s one heck of a cold front on xmas eve on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Hmmm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Just now, jaydreb said: That’s one heck of a cold front on xmas eve on the GFS. This is the setup I have been waiting for. Derecho and snowstorm at the same time. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: This 153 panel is really nice for the Shenandoah Valley: Based on the 850’s coming though around hour 152, that’s probably a 3-6” snow here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Hmmmmythical flash freeze event anyone? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Thanks for the inch of snow on xmas, 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Based on the 850’s coming though around hour 152, that’s probably a 3-6” snow here Would need the timing of the wave to happen just as depicted though. Regardless. I would take an inch of wind driven snow on Christmas eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: mythical flash freeze event anyone? Actually had a flash freeze here yesterday morning. Cold came in quick as the last bit of rain was falling. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zdudswx Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Over a 30 degree drop in a span of 12 hours for some between Christmas Eve and day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 1 minute ago, JakkelWx said: Thanks for the inch of snow on xmas, 12z GFS. I am so grateful someone posted a snow map for an event 6 days away. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 There’s some robust NS energy on the GFS next Tuesday swinging down that would be another 4-6”+ for the mountains/ski resorts. Great timing for business as they head into the holiday period. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 1 minute ago, JakkelWx said: Thanks for the inch of snow on xmas, 12z GFS. Likewise, thanks for the .3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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