CAPE Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, Scraff said: Always need to keep in mind that in this forum, the WB snow / p-type maps are are specifically for feeding the weenies. Gotta make sure everyone eats. Yeah I get it. I still think people get biased when they see 20" over their yards run after run, when in reality it is actually more like 10 verbatim, and then when they actually get 7..well you know. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yeah I get it. I still think people get biased when they see 20" over their yards run after run, when in reality it is actually more like 10 verbatim, and then when they actually get 7..well you know. Yeah, those maps are great when there is no temperature concern. When there are major temperature concerns, those maps are almost worthless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Just now, osfan24 said: Yeah, those maps are great when there is no temperature concern. When there are major temperature concerns, those maps are almost worthless. Yup. And it is pretty rare to not have p-type issues in these bigger, high qpf storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Just now, osfan24 said: Yeah, those maps are great when there is no temperature concern. When there are major temperature concerns, those maps are almost worthless. Exactly....those snow maps verified just fine in PA and NY. If you are on the fringe, take with a huge grain of sleet...i mean salt 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 22 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Thermals were pretty good. Low location was awful. I'm waiting for the NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 37 minutes ago, CAPE said: I don't recall any snow amounts that high. The event was in and out in under 2 hours. It started with marginal temps, 33-34. Most of the snow here fell at 32 degrees, with massive aggregates. It piled up fast despite the temps. Yes the cold behind the front was impressive. He's probably thinking of the event that followed the front a couple days later. Low pressure stayed a bit to the south producing 3-6 over the region. A few spots may have gotten 8. It happened on a Monday night into Tuesday morning. Extremely cold temps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 I am ecstatic on how this December is turning out. Definitely different from last year. And so far no sign of a late December torch that I recall was the consensus in early December. A cold Christmas is always nice. If we can pull off a couple of inches it would be fantastic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Yes.. the one around the 18th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Sunday is still interesting 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Mount Holly: nothing to see here, but stay tuned, just in case! The next surface low will be crossing east, with the center of the low likely remaining near the US/Canadian border. This is likely to result in a cold front approaching our region late next week. Another low may develop along the cold front, but even so, it appears that most of the precipitation with this event will come ahead of the front, solidly in the warm sector. Thus, it appears if we see any precipitation associated with this system, it will be mostly rain on Thursday. However, stay tuned to the latest forecast as at least one model shows QPF behind the strong cold front, which would be changing to snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 4 hours ago, yoda said: Clouded the future is... but 06z GFS... strong in the Force it is Love it! Thanks Master Yoda! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 06z gefs with a better look for a wave forming on the Arctic front....Any snow on x-mas is a win but a nice wave developing down south creates some upside potential. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 4 hours ago, CAPE said: With a persistent vortex in/near the WPO domain, and a strong Asian-Pacific jet, it wont be easy to get super cold air in our source region. We probably need the AO to be significantly negative to mitigate that somewhat, and allow TPV lobes to break off and come south. That vortex is keeping the central PAC ridge suppressed though. You’re right it’s preventing an epo ridge and cross polar flow but in runs that break that down the pac ridge pops and we end to with a trough in the west ridge east. I think I’ll take my chances with the WPO vortex and hope as Canada gets colder we can make die with N American domestic cold sources. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 1 hour ago, JakkelWx said: Yeah but does the JMA also have it? Yes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 4 hours ago, yoda said: Clouded the future is... but 06z GFS... strong in the Force Farce it is FYP!! But seriously, that would be quite nice if it happens! At this point, I'll be glad to even have a nice, crisp Christmas rather than being in the 50s or raining or whatever, for a change. At least a little fresh wintry feel even if there's not much snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Seeing mention of anafront snows for next week. They rarely work out....most here know this. However, in my area NW of Philly we have had 2 anafront snows already this season. We almost never see it. Neither was anything to write home about. What's my point? There is a tendency already this winter for those anafront scenarios to work. If there was a year we could score on the backside of a front with a wave trailing, this is probably the one. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That vortex is keeping the central PAC ridge suppressed though. You’re right it’s preventing an epo ridge and cross polar flow but in runs that break that down the pac ridge pops and we end to with a trough in the west ridge east. I think I’ll take my chances with the WPO vortex and hope as Canada gets colder we can make die with N American domestic cold sources. Yeah if the AO cooperates we should be ok with cold that's 'good enough' as we move forward. Interestingly, the extended GEFS has suggested the WPO/EPO go negative from time to time, but then it backs off. When it has had that look though, the NA is also pretty good, and the overall h5 pattern looks remarkably favorable. lol probably why it keeps losing it- very unlikely to verify unless the Nina craps out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 On 11/24/2020 at 6:16 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: It was fun while it lasted lol yea it was i still got 3 to 5 inches nice to see a decent storm for once 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Sunday is still interesting Shortwave is a tad better on the 12z GFS. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Dusting to an inch on WB. No map until it gets to 2 inches!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: Shortwave is a tad better on the 12z GFS. If you squint hard enough you can see the Montgomery/Howard county deathband set up. Lol 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 I have a feeling that the CMC ( I know, I know...) is going to show a nice storm for Monday in the next few runs. It's been the strongest with the follow up wave and has been close to producing something. Seems like GFS is trying to follow those footsteps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: If you squint hard enough you can see the Montgomery/Howard county deathband set up. Lol The jet streak position is favorable(LF quad) and there is some moisture. Surface temps and timing probably the biggest issues for getting a skiff of snow.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 It just wants to snow here 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It just wants to snow here It just wants to rain here...a fart it all it takes. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Just now, CAPE said: It just wants to rain here...a fart it all it takes. Not for long my friend. Yours is coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It just wants to snow here I think at the very least we see some snow showers from that little clipper in Tuesday as well. Very active pattern coming up. GFS has more energy on the front this run as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Not for long my friend. Yours is coming Yup. In 2023. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 GFS HAS a Low over panhandle Florida 12 z Christmas Eve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 This 153 panel is really nice for the Shenandoah Valley: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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