yoda Posted December 18, 2020 Author Share Posted December 18, 2020 Clouded the future is... but 06z GFS... strong in the Force it is 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Few runs in a row now with that block forming right after Christmas. This is how we snow. We take! Hopefully it’s legit...so far this winter blocks have come to fruition so we’ll see. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Just now, yoda said: Clouded the future is... but 06z GFS... strong in the Force it is Could you imagine if that verifies for S NY? 2 feet on top of what they’d have? Lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 18, 2020 Author Share Posted December 18, 2020 06z GFS also says we enjoy single digits for lows Christmas night into Boxing Day... near 0 out west in the mountains... 10-15 in the cities Windchills also 0 to -10 for most... -10 to -15 out west in the mountains... near 0 in the cities 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 18, 2020 Author Share Posted December 18, 2020 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 6 hours ago, Ji said: 6 hours ago, psuhoffman said: GFS really isn't far from something Monday...its got a kicker right on its tail...need that to either back off or dig more and amplify the trough. Ggem does it but no cold again With a persistent vortex in/near the WPO domain, and a strong Asian-Pacific jet, it wont be easy to get super cold air in our source region. We probably need the AO to be significantly negative to mitigate that somewhat, and allow TPV lobes to break off and come south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 20 minutes ago, dailylurker said: Sounds like my girlfriend. What's it mean? White Christmas or 75 degrees? Both 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 6Z WB GEFS through Christmas Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 p16 is right where we want it. North trend needs to be down there for me to have a shot. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 06z GFS is active AF after Christmas. Looks like many opportunities between Christmas and New Years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 7 hours ago, Ji said: 7 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Oddly the anafront snow idea on xmas eve is on the GFS and CMC. I'm sure it will work out I will be today years old when we get snow out of an anafront. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I will be today years old when we get snow out of an anafront. November 2018... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: November 2018... I don't remember that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: November 2018... Pretty sure we did it last year on 12/11/19 too, unless I'm interpreting my brief notes on that one incorrectly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 12/11/19 was the last time i saw snow i believe. Also, the SOI is strongly positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 21 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I don't remember that one. Ended up with 1.5” in mid November. Even DC got snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 12 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Yes this. Wes did an amazing correlation chart and DC snow correlates to the AO more then any other single factor. Adding to this...if you want a HECS then you need a -NAO. Only one of our region wide 18”+ storms in the last 50 years didn’t have a killer block and that one PD2 featured a perfectly timed Arctic high. We got kinda lucky. But that still changed to a LOT of sleet...so had timing been any less perfect...you get it. But oddly the really big ones that feature a great block also usually feature what under a non blocking regime would be a bad pacific. I talked about this some in the snow climo thread. Our HECS look is a weird combo that doesn’t work under normal circumstances. That kind of block would often suppress an event...but a trough near AK that amplified the ridge/trough downstream or a trough crashing the west that tries to ridge in the east actually helps get something to force its way up into what is likely locked in cold and a high pressure due to the confluence. It’s a weird combo that leads to those crazy anomaly storms. But if we just want snow...a good old fashioned warning event snowstorm, a -AO and a PNA or EPO ridge are the way to go. That's cool. Wow, I didn't know we only had one HECS in 50 years without a -NAO. Geeze. Timing seems to almost always be a must at my latitude, but it's fascinating that if you just go 50-70 miles to my northwest, you can score with with a less than perfect solution. I really feel like our snow success this year (as well as many other winters) is especially linked to how the PNA performs. We all know that a +PNA can influence higher chances for gulf moisture, and of course features an above avg chance we see some cooler temps on this side of the country. With that said, I also have a sense that we see (hopefully) a few periods of blocking, especially into the early part of January, as ridging in (or near) our ideal NAO space seems to be (possibly) the preferred position this season. I noticed back in October that the north Atlantic was rotating higher heights through Greenland/N. Atlantic, at least more than I have seen prior to the last couple of winters. I always feel like October through early November can give us a glimpse of some of the pieces that become featured during winter. Totally anecdotal though. I can't prove it. Long and short - I'm really hoping for a PNA that cycles through some stable + periods. I feel like we will we get a couple "hum-dingers" if we get this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 27 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: November 2018... 24 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I don't remember that one. That was a good early season snow boom. 12z RAOB from IAD show the mid levels were about 2 or 3 degrees colder than even the meso guidance. Everyone wet bulbed right down towards freezing and held there and it was a clusterf*ck on the roads. We had like a 15 car accident on I-270 in Hyattstown that jacked everything up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 EARLY Chrismas Morning, CMC and GFS.....hmmmmm 2 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: EARLY Chrismas Morning, CMC and GFS.....hmmmmm Yeah but does the JMA also have it? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Ended up with 1.5” in mid November. Even DC got snow. That was a nice surprise. Ended up with over 7" up in Hagerstown. Can't remember what was forecasted but it definitely over performed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 1 minute ago, JakkelWx said: Yeah but does the JMA also have it? Or Dr. No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 2 hours ago, CAPE said: We probably need the AO to be significantly negative to mitigate that somewhat, and allow TPV lobes to break off and come south. YES ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Stupid one-eyed monster in AK needs to go away. So many things working for us. This is not one of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 34 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: November 2018... We need something like the mid Feb 2015 event that kicked off our backloaded winter. Not sure how to characterize that one, but it was along a sharp cold front and intense af. That would be fun to have on Xmas eve. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Or Dr. No? It does have it!!... just further west. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 5 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Or Dr. No? Euro sucks. Did you not watch it on the last storm? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Ended up with 1.5” in mid November. Even DC got snow. This was south of Alexandria for that storm...it can snow in November and stick, even to roads! Rates! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 35 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: November 2018... I remember that, too. Was the March 2015 event (6.5" where I'm at, general 4-8" area-wide) also a case of a low forming along a cold front? Front went through in the early morning I recall, and a decent wave moved up shortly after during the day. Or that's how I recall how that evolved. I sort of remember @Deck Pic telling people beforehand to not freak out when they woke up in the morning and it's not snowing yet, because there was going to be a "lull" between the front going through and the main show. And like clockwork of course, people freaked out early that morning when nothing was happening. And sure enough, it began snowing like crazy starting around 9AM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 6 minutes ago, 40westwx said: It does have it!!... just further west. Rain all the way up to New Brunswick in late December. Yeah. That works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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