Maestrobjwa Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: By mid December I knew we were in trouble...and by Xmas I knew we were completely screwed and likely headed for a total dud winter. We were looking at a combination of the worst possible pacific pattern and NAM state possible...and judging by the onset of those two patterns combined with the typical duration of both when they present at that level of anomaly...history said both were likely to continue through the majority of our snow climo. The history of such years with that pacific and high latitude look was really ugly. Right now everything up top looks more favorable. The pacific is more murky. The Euro weeklies resume the central pac ridge look week 3 and keep it locked in straight through...there is a -AO most of the time but mostly ruined by the awful pac. However...the models were doing that by Xmas not long ago and then backed off. It seems they "think" we should be going to that out in time...but like it past years when they thought things would get better, keep pushing that look out. What has ended up the reality is a mediocre but not completely hostile pacific. If that continues and the AO remains negative we should have a decent winter. So far things look better then I expected. Now when was the last time we actually had a great pac? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 12 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Dr. Peter Venkman: This forum is headed for a disaster of biblical proportions. Moderator: What do you mean, "biblical"? Dr. Raymond Stantz: What he means is Old Testament, Mr. Moderator, real wrath-of-God type stuff. Cold you can see and icebergs coming down from the sky! Rivers and the Chesapeake freezing solid! Dr. Egon Spengler: Forty years of darkness! Ji saying it is too much snow, EJ calling "uncle"... Winston Zeddmore: The dead rising from the grave! The panic room abandoned! Dr. Peter Venkman: Human sacrifice, Phineas and Amped no longer trolling - MASS HYSTERIA! So would the TPV be the Gatekeeper and the SPV the Keymaster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Now when was the last time we actually had a great pac? Lol 2014 and 2015 we had a lot of pac help... we have had some periods since then but nothing sustained for long stretches like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: 2014 and 2015 we had a lot of pac help... we have had some periods since then but nothing sustained for long stretches like that. And for 2009-10...was an awesome pac a part of that perfect setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: And for 2009-10...was an awesome pac a part of that perfect setup? The pac was good for the Dec storm...we really need EVERYTHING to be perfect to get a big snow in December...it was actually only EHH for the Feb snow blitz but the Atlantic blocking was perfect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Ggem with another Noreaster Monday and we get rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 GFS really isn't far from something Monday...its got a kicker right on its tail...need that to either back off or dig more and amplify the trough. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 12 minutes ago, cbmclean said: So would the TPV be the Gatekeeper and the SPV the Keymaster? That is absolutely correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Just now, Ji said: Ggem with another Noreaster Monday and we get rain Things can still change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 GFS really isn't far from something Monday...its got a kicker right on its tail...need that to either back off or dig more and amplify the trough.Ggem does it but no cold again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Ggem with another Noreaster Monday and we get rain somewhat similar problem to yesterday...only even less cold in front and the storm doesn't develop and close off a circulation until past our latitude. But its close and guidance is just coming around to this idea...curious to see what happens in future runs. Still time for thermals to adjust some but it won't be an easy win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: GFS really isn't far from something Monday...its got a kicker right on its tail...need that to either back off or dig more and amplify the trough. Ggem does it but no cold again Can we keep this pattern rolling into January when this would really pay off? The worst kind of gut punch would be to largely waste this now then have it break down and resume a typical nina look when our best snow climo starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: GFS really isn't far from something Monday...its got a kicker right on its tail...need that to either back off or dig more and amplify the trough. The Kicker has a legit chance to work out. Temps are fine. Will it be juicy enough? There is a little clipper to watch after that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Can we keep this pattern rolling into January when this would really pay off? The worst kind of gut punch would be to largely waste this now then have it break down and resume a typical nina look when our best snow climo starts. That's what I'm afraid of. We have seen 3 winter storms so far and DC is 0-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Can we keep this pattern rolling into January when this would really pay off? The worst kind of gut punch would be to largely waste this now then have it break down and resume a typical nina look when our best snow climo starts. We still have not seen any arctic air yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Just now, clskinsfan said: The Kicker has a legit chance to work out. Temps are fine. Will it be juicy enough? If its trailing right behind a system that pulls the baroclinic zone well off the coast and its screaming in from the NW...no. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Can we keep this pattern rolling into January when this would really pay off? The worst kind of gut punch would be to largely waste this now then have it break down and resume a typical nina look when our best snow climo starts. We still have not seen any arctic air yet looks like we get a brief shot around xmas...then after there is at least cold air around to tap. We have been paying for the god awful November still. It was so bad...one of the worst November's every...that it wasn't easy for the thermal profile of North America to recover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Xmas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Oddly the anafront snow idea on xmas eve is on the GFS and CMC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 That looks like the 20 minute super cold front blizzard we got a few years ago 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Oddly the anafront snow idea on xmas eve is on the GFS and CMC. I'm sure it will work out 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: looks like we get a brief shot around xmas...then after there is at least cold air around to tap. We have been paying for the god awful November still. It was so bad...one of the worst November's every...that it wasn't easy for the thermal profile of North America to recover. Last month felt like the exact opposite of the last two November's...they were pretty cold weren't they? And then there were the head fakes that the pattern to follow would be good...and it turned bad instead. Now wouldn't it be funny if the opposite happened this year? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Just now, Ji said: 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: That looks like the 20 minute super cold front blizzard we got a few years ago It actually stripes us with 3-5" right through up the middle of our forum. Just now, Ji said: 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Oddly the anafront snow idea on xmas eve is on the GFS and CMC. I'm sure it will work out probably not...but we keep seeing chances in this pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 How can this not produce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Last month felt like the exact opposite of the last two November's...they were pretty cold weren't they? And then there were the head fakes that the pattern to follow would be good...and it turned bad instead. Now wouldn't it be funny if the opposite happened this year? LolCold Novembers to me are a big waste and then the pattern can't hold. This year is so much better so far 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Just now, Ji said: How can this not produce Would help if that low off AK would back off just a TINY bit...but still that look probably WOULD give us chances and threats...then its up to the details again. Remember 2 weeks ago we saw the blocking up top several days before even a hint of a specific threat showed up. People were frustrated about that. I will take the pattern first...storm threats come if the pattern is right. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 @Ji CMC pops another coastal too late a couple days after xmas and has another piece of energy diving in right after that...active pattern. There would be opportunities. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 @Ji ignore the surface...this was REAL close to something big here 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 @Ji There is your threat around New Years on the GFS from that block...gets squashed this run. Details don't work out. A system crashes into the west coast and flattens the flow which doesn't allow things to amplify...but that is a detail that will change at that lead. But you can see with that block nothing is going to cut in that time period. Just need to get a healthy system to amplify during the window it creates. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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