Ji Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 10 minutes ago, frd said: When the mean gets to 6 to 8 inches 6 to 7 days prior then we can get excited. Last winter was a dismal showing with low odds and probabilities. Getting 1 or 2 inches prior to December 31 st seems reasonable. The re-load in January may provide the real deal to us in this forum. yea we saw 1-2 inches last year on the 15 day mean-----thats actually an awful map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 8 minutes ago, Ji said: yea we saw 1-2 inches last year on the 15 day mean-----thats actually an awful map We also saw 8-9 inches on the 15 day mean in December 2017... look how that worked out :p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 someone start a thread 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: We also saw 8-9 inches on the 15 day mean in December 2017... look how that worked out :p well id rather see 8-9 and not work out--then 1-2 and not work out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: someone start a thread Do we really wanna start a thread with for a weak wave with a few snow showers, with a giant GL low scouring out any cold air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Do we really wanna start a thread with for a weak wave with a few snow showers, with a giant GL low scouring out any cold air? I think JI was laying the sarcasm on pretty thick there lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said: I think JI was laying the sarcasm on pretty thick there lol Yeah taking a closer look at it, yes. I find it difficult to hear someone from behind a computer screen. They never seem to talk loud enough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Happy Hour GFS is going to give us some love for Christmas snow...... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 38 minutes ago, Ji said: someone start a thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 18z GFS for Monday seems to have been trending better for something maybe? I’ll let the pros dissect, but might be worth keeping an eye on. Toggle back to previous runs and see for yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, Scraff said: 18z GFS for Monday seems to have been trending better for something maybe? I’ll let the pros dissect, but might be worth keeping an eye on. Toggle back to previous runs and see for yourself. Yeah, I agree. Definitely worth an eye. GL lake kinda sucks, but maybe we can get a favorable trend this time? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, Scraff said: 18z GFS for Monday seems to have been trending better for something maybe? I’ll let the pros dissect, but might be worth keeping an eye on. Toggle back to previous runs and see for yourself. Yeah, that's much more interesting than the joke event at 66 hours -- not that I'm trashing the potential to see a little snow TV. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 A nice 2" - 4" regionwide Christmas eve would be stellar. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 4 hours ago, frd said: Ying and Yang...... wonder what happens in the East between December 25 th and January 7 th 2021. Honestly, if we can ditch any Aleutian low and get ridging up around AK, continue a -AO regime with even a neutral to slightly negative NAO... that’s a good look for us. The southern jet is active. I’m not quite sure why that is. My understanding is La Niña doesn’t feature the southern stream but I feel like this weak Nina to neutral ENSO state has kept the juice flowing. I like the period after the big (potential) cold period right after Xmas. Dive that AO down and have the NAO switch directions heading up. Good signal for a Miller b that can toe the line as NAO relaxes a bit. 2 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: The NAO barely dropped below zero! NAO hanging around neutral isn’t a horrible look for us as long as AO goes negative and PNA isn’t a rager. One thing I’ve learned in the mid-Atlantic... a -AO is almost better then a -NAO because when the NAO goes real negative we get suppression. And NC wins. And that sucks 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 8 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Those are money. Take that one to the bank 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: A nice 2" - 4" regionwide Christmas eve would be stellar. It would be almost magical...and again, if there was ever a year we needed it, it's this year! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Those are money. Take that one to the bank Why does the modeled precip look all smeared in the LR graphics anyway? Is that just what the computers do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Why does the modeled precip look all smeared in the LR graphics anyway? Is that just what the computers do? I have no idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 eh... maybe I am slightly interested in Sunday. A little snow TV with a low-stakes upside of 1.5" or so. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 13 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: eh... maybe I am slightly interested in Sunday. A little snow TV with a low-stakes upside of 1.5" or so. Any snow is good snow. Snow on snow that reinforces cold for more snow is even better. Snow during the holidays is the best. Snow during the holidays that reinforces cold for more snow is the bestest. It's a simple four step pyramid that leads the way to success. 7 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Snow on snow that reinforces cold for more snow on top of snow that reinforces even more cold air for even more snow on snow? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
howrdcounty snow Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 new member 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 46 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Why does the modeled precip look all smeared in the LR graphics anyway? Is that just what the computers do? I mean the gfs is basically a cold front near Christmas. Not saying that’s what it’ll be but that’s why it looks like that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 43 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: eh... maybe I am slightly interested in Sunday. A little snow TV with a low-stakes upside of 1.5" or so. How’s it look through 115 hours or so. Curious if any ensembles developed a low off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: How’s it look through 115 hours or so. Curious if any ensembles developed a low off the coast Most interesting/busy panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 35 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Any snow is good snow. Snow on snow that reinforces cold for more snow is even better. Snow during the holidays is the best. Snow during the holidays that reinforces cold for more snow is the bestest. It's a simple four step pyramid that leads the way to success. The reaper should start a Snow MLM scheme... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 28 minutes ago, howrdcounty snow said: new member Welcome! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 The 40" event around BGM and 30" generally from there to central NH could pay some dividends for your region eventually. That snow pack is going to be there until there's two weeks of thaw (maybe late Feb to Mar) so any time good synoptics show up, any arctic highs ahead of snowfalls should be beefed up over the inland northeast. From this GFS run, would tag the period Jan 3-5 as promising, there's deep winter cold showing up for several days before that and a strong low diving southeast into the plains states at end of the run (Jan 2). Would have to suspect that might recurve around the Carolinas into a powerful nor'easter. The Christmas Day event looks at this point like a flash freeze, near 60 on the 24th, near 20 on the 25th. Probably a region wide dusting from that, 1-3" max potential. Will be more interesting for the temperature drop. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 1 hour ago, PivotPoint said: Honestly, if we can ditch any Aleutian low and get ridging up around AK, continue a -AO regime with even a neutral to slightly negative NAO... that’s a good look for us. The southern jet is active. I’m not quite sure why that is. My understanding is La Niña doesn’t feature the southern stream but I feel like this weak Nina to neutral ENSO state has kept the juice flowing. I like the period after the big (potential) cold period right after Xmas. Dive that AO down and have the NAO switch directions heading up. Good signal for a Miller b that can toe the line as NAO relaxes a bit. NAO hanging around neutral isn’t a horrible look for us as long as AO goes negative and PNA isn’t a rager. One thing I’ve learned in the mid-Atlantic... a -AO is almost better then a -NAO because when the NAO goes real negative we get suppression. And NC wins. And that sucks Yes this. Wes did an amazing correlation chart and DC snow correlates to the AO more then any other single factor. Adding to this...if you want a HECS then you need a -NAO. Only one of our region wide 18”+ storms in the last 50 years didn’t have a killer block and that one PD2 featured a perfectly timed Arctic high. We got kinda lucky. But that still changed to a LOT of sleet...so had timing been any less perfect...you get it. But oddly the really big ones that feature a great block also usually feature what under a non blocking regime would be a bad pacific. I talked about this some in the snow climo thread. Our HECS look is a weird combo that doesn’t work under normal circumstances. That kind of block would often suppress an event...but a trough near AK that amplified the ridge/trough downstream or a trough crashing the west that tries to ridge in the east actually helps get something to force its way up into what is likely locked in cold and a high pressure due to the confluence. It’s a weird combo that leads to those crazy anomaly storms. But if we just want snow...a good old fashioned warning event snowstorm, a -AO and a PNA or EPO ridge are the way to go. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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