frd Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Really thinking that any SPV weakening / elongations / re-location, ie. to the Hudson Bay region for example, really benefits us in January versus other areas of the NH. Growing more likely something will happen, but to what degree is still uncertain. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: 12z Euro has a bit of a wave moving along the Arctic Front for Xmas eve. Quick shot of snow verbatim then COLD. That always works out well for us! LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: 12z Euro has a bit of a wave moving along the Arctic Front for Xmas eve. Quick shot of snow verbatim then COLD. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, osfan24 said: That always works out well for us! LOL. any snow around Christmas Eve/ Christmas day, however light, would be awesome. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 10 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: any snow around Christmas Eve/ Christmas day, however light, would be awesome. Yes it would. I remember we had some snow back in 2008 maybe? A little snow on Christmas morning that was enough to give us around an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Start a thread Not falling yet, I will be in NOVA on 23 December for Christmas. Let Bristow do it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 10 minutes ago, osfan24 said: That always works out well for us! LOL. This is gonna evolve into an epic (Arctic) anafrontal snow event- one of the highest probability ways to get snow around here. On quick glance I counted maybe 7-8 EPS members that produce a shot of snow during that period. Others have rain showers presumably ahead of the front. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Not falling yet, I will be in NOVA on 23 December for Christmas. Let Bristow do it Yeah because he would bring the luck....I blocked him years ago 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 The NAO barely dropped below zero! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: The NAO barely dropped below zero! Better than it spiking positive, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Better than it spiking positive, lol He posted the old data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 WB 12Z EPS. Signal seems strongest Day 15-20. So we will see if it increases over the next week. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Give me p41 and move it 250-300 miles east and call it a winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 40 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: The NAO barely dropped below zero! A somewhat -NAO with a VERY -AO is just fine. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 24 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EPS. Signal seems strongest Day 15-20. So we will see if it increases over the next week. When the mean gets to 6 to 8 inches 6 to 7 days prior then we can get excited. Last winter was a dismal showing with low odds and probabilities. Getting 1 or 2 inches prior to December 31 st seems reasonable. The re-load in January may provide the real deal to us in this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 10 minutes ago, frd said: When the mean gets to 6 to 8 inches 6 to 7 days prior then we can get excited. Last winter was a dismal showing with low odds and probabilities. Getting 1 or 2 inches prior to December 31 st seems reasonable. The re-load in January may provide the real deal to us in this forum. yea we saw 1-2 inches last year on the 15 day mean-----thats actually an awful map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 8 minutes ago, Ji said: yea we saw 1-2 inches last year on the 15 day mean-----thats actually an awful map We also saw 8-9 inches on the 15 day mean in December 2017... look how that worked out :p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 someone start a thread 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: We also saw 8-9 inches on the 15 day mean in December 2017... look how that worked out :p well id rather see 8-9 and not work out--then 1-2 and not work out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: someone start a thread Do we really wanna start a thread with for a weak wave with a few snow showers, with a giant GL low scouring out any cold air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Do we really wanna start a thread with for a weak wave with a few snow showers, with a giant GL low scouring out any cold air? I think JI was laying the sarcasm on pretty thick there lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said: I think JI was laying the sarcasm on pretty thick there lol Yeah taking a closer look at it, yes. I find it difficult to hear someone from behind a computer screen. They never seem to talk loud enough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Happy Hour GFS is going to give us some love for Christmas snow...... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 38 minutes ago, Ji said: someone start a thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 18z GFS for Monday seems to have been trending better for something maybe? I’ll let the pros dissect, but might be worth keeping an eye on. Toggle back to previous runs and see for yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, Scraff said: 18z GFS for Monday seems to have been trending better for something maybe? I’ll let the pros dissect, but might be worth keeping an eye on. Toggle back to previous runs and see for yourself. Yeah, I agree. Definitely worth an eye. GL lake kinda sucks, but maybe we can get a favorable trend this time? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, Scraff said: 18z GFS for Monday seems to have been trending better for something maybe? I’ll let the pros dissect, but might be worth keeping an eye on. Toggle back to previous runs and see for yourself. Yeah, that's much more interesting than the joke event at 66 hours -- not that I'm trashing the potential to see a little snow TV. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 A nice 2" - 4" regionwide Christmas eve would be stellar. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 4 hours ago, frd said: Ying and Yang...... wonder what happens in the East between December 25 th and January 7 th 2021. Honestly, if we can ditch any Aleutian low and get ridging up around AK, continue a -AO regime with even a neutral to slightly negative NAO... that’s a good look for us. The southern jet is active. I’m not quite sure why that is. My understanding is La Niña doesn’t feature the southern stream but I feel like this weak Nina to neutral ENSO state has kept the juice flowing. I like the period after the big (potential) cold period right after Xmas. Dive that AO down and have the NAO switch directions heading up. Good signal for a Miller b that can toe the line as NAO relaxes a bit. 2 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: The NAO barely dropped below zero! NAO hanging around neutral isn’t a horrible look for us as long as AO goes negative and PNA isn’t a rager. One thing I’ve learned in the mid-Atlantic... a -AO is almost better then a -NAO because when the NAO goes real negative we get suppression. And NC wins. And that sucks 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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