psuhoffman Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 5 hours ago, Ji said: Did eps lose the blocking and ao? 5 hours ago, CAPE said: The AO trends basically neutral and the NAO slightly positive by the end of the month. Btw that area of +heights on the means focused in the WA is not exactly the block we want. 50-50 high! It is very encouraging that all 3 major ensembles temporarily spike the AO as two TPV lobes merge but all 3 immediately give it the boot and tank the AO again within a couple days. The best news is we are well into the point where the last few years there was ample evidence the look up top was going to be trouble. Especially last year when huge warning flags were there. This year we have the opposite with every sign pointing to a favorable base state of the NAM. 8 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It is very encouraging that all 3 major ensembles temporarily spike the AO as two TPV lobes merge but all 3 immediately give it the boot and tank the AO again within a couple days. The best news is we are well into the point where the last few years there was ample evidence the look up top was going to be trouble. Especially last year when huge warning flags were there. This year we have the opposite with every sign pointing to a favorable base state of the NAM. Yea by this time last year it was pretty evident that we were in store for a pretty sucko winter, even by Mid Atlantic standards. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 1 hour ago, JakkelWx said: That’s a pretty good signal for winter weather on the EC 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Canadian pops a low at 192, interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 If we can just get some energy to hang back a bit for a x-mas miracle...... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 33 minutes ago, poolz1 said: If we can just get some energy to hang back a bit for a x-mas miracle...... If there were every a year we needed a White Christmas...it's this year!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 37 minutes ago, poolz1 said: If we can just get some energy to hang back a bit for a x-mas miracle...... A fair number of the 12z GEFS members show decent snowfall on xmas eve/xmas morning. Hard to capture it all in a single panel because of timing differences, but you can sort of see it here. 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 43 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Canadian pops a low at 192, interesting Start a thread 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Start a thread I know I learned my lesson counting your snowflakes before they fall from this go around...I'll wait for the 24th 12z mesos to get excited and then be skeptical from there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 How much for Philly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: How much for Philly? Philly's gone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Is it too much to ask for a BECS for Christmas after this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 How it started vs how it's going 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: How it started vs how it's going Today's forecast has a greater spread out in time, although I doubt we achieve some of the upper member's forecasts. May very well consolidate in a more narrow channel, more so negative versus + or neutral, in a few days. That has happened twice in the last 11 days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Ying and Yang...... wonder what happens in the East between December 25 th and January 7 th 2021. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Lets get a MECS PLEASE i would speculate that due to improved climo,combined with the strat/blocking evolution a rather potent winter storm in the East in early to mid January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 JMA and CMC want to hang energy back over TX midweek as Arctic front presses thru the Northeast. Both move a low out of the Mississippi Valley around Christmas day. 6 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 What I wouldn't do for some snow on Christmas, especially a major storm. And this year would be the perfect year to be snowed in on Christmas. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: What I wouldn't do for some snow on Christmas, especially a major storm. And this year would be the perfect year to be snowed in on Christmas. WSWatches or WWAs on Xmas eve....tough to beat that kind of magic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: JMA and CMC want to hang energy back over TX midweek as Arctic front presses thru the Northeast. Both move a low out of the Mississippi Valley around Christmas day. one tiny problem 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, osfan24 said: What I wouldn't do for some snow on Christmas, especially a major storm. And this year would be the perfect year to be snowed in on Christmas. A true blessing for the weather weenies, and for many others, after a year of difficulty and sadness for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 The models have all been bouncing around some sort of system on the 24th/25th/26th. CMC probably the closest to what we'd want so far. Needs a stronger/better placed 50/50 low and more blocking, though. The high as shown would probably disappoint us in the same ways the high with yesterday's storm did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: WSWatches or WWAs on Xmas eve....tough to beat that kind of magic That did happen 10 years ago.. Christmas day though, and well, that storm busted badly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Somebody in here said that IF we had a Christmas snow storm, they would gladly give up all snow the rest of winter. I can’t remember who said it, but they might want to consider finding those comments and deleting them stat! Lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: WSWatches or WWAs on Xmas eve....tough to beat that kind of magic We did have that, for The Storm Which Shall Not Be Named (*ahem* Dec. 2010 *ahem*). Ducking for cover! Ooops... 'd by @mappy, sorry about that!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ji said: one tiny problem CMC is icy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 10 minutes ago, Ji said: one tiny problem The JMA 850mb 0C line is *just* a bit outside! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 48 minutes ago, frd said: Ying and Yang...... wonder what happens in the East between December 25 th and January 7 th 2021. Awesome! Now tell me why that dude is sittin' up there with a frowning emoji as if the blue ball of awfulness wasn't set up there all last winter...lol (and maybe even the winter before) Spread the wealth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: CMC is icy "With all the snowpack in the Northeast, the CAD signature would have to be much better than models are seeing" - Weenie Playbook 101 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 12z Euro has a bit of a wave moving along the Arctic Front for Xmas eve. Quick shot of snow verbatim then COLD. 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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